Estimating global landslide susceptibility and its uncertainty through ensemble modelling

Abstract. This study assesses global landslide susceptibility (LSS) at the coarse 36-km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations, to prepare for a subsequent combination of a global LSS map with dynamic soil moisture estimates for landslide modelling. Global LSS estimation intrinsically contains uncertainty, arising from errors in the underlying data, the spatial mismatch between landslide events and predictor information, and large-scale model generalizations. For a reliable uncertainty assessment, this study combines methods from the landslide community with common practices in meteorological modelling to create an ensemble of global LSS maps. The predictive LSS models are obtained from a mixed effects logistic regression, associating hydrologically triggered landslide data from the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) with predictor variables from the Catchment land surface modeling system (incl. input parameters of soil (hydrological) properties and resulting climatological statistics of water budget estimates), geomorphological and lithological data. Road network density is introduced as a random effect to mitigate potential landslide inventory bias. We use a blocked random cross validation to assess the model uncertainty that propagates into the LSS maps. To account for other uncertainty sources, such as input uncertainty, we also perturb the predictor variables and obtain an ensemble of LSS maps. The perturbations are optimized so that the total predicted uncertainty fits the observed discrepancy between the ensemble average LSS and the landslide presence or absence from the GLC. We find that the most reliable total uncertainty estimates are obtained through the inclusion of a topography-dependent perturbation between 15 % and 20 % to the predictor variables. The areas with the largest LSS uncertainty coincide with moderate ensemble average LSS. The spatial patterns of the average LSS agree well with previous global studies and yield areas under the Receiver Operation Characteristic between 0.63 and 0.9 for independent regional to continental landslide inventories.

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Spatial variability and its scale dependency of observed and modeled soil moisture over different climate regions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-1177-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 1177-1188 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

B. Li ◽

M. Rodell

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Warm Season ◽

Scale Dependency ◽

Convex Shape ◽

Spatial Moments ◽

Environmental Controls

Abstract. Past studies on soil moisture spatial variability have been mainly conducted at catchment scales where soil moisture is often sampled over a short time period; as a result, the observed soil moisture often exhibited smaller dynamic ranges, which prevented the complete revelation of soil moisture spatial variability as a function of mean soil moisture. In this study, spatial statistics (mean, spatial variability and skewness) of in situ soil moisture, modeled and satellite-retrieved soil moisture obtained in a warm season (198 days) were examined over three large climate regions in the US. The study found that spatial moments of in situ measurements strongly depend on climates, with distinct mean, spatial variability and skewness observed in each climate zone. In addition, an upward convex shape, which was revealed in several smaller scale studies, was observed for the relationship between spatial variability of in situ soil moisture and its spatial mean when statistics from dry, intermediate, and wet climates were combined. This upward convex shape was vaguely or partially observable in modeled and satellite-retrieved soil moisture estimates due to their smaller dynamic ranges. Despite different environmental controls on large-scale soil moisture spatial variability, the correlation between spatial variability and mean soil moisture remained similar to that observed at small scales, which is attributed to the boundedness of soil moisture. From the smaller support (effective area or volume represented by a measurement or estimate) to larger ones, soil moisture spatial variability decreased in each climate region. The scale dependency of spatial variability all followed the power law, but data with large supports showed stronger scale dependency than those with smaller supports. The scale dependency of soil moisture variability also varied with climates, which may be linked to the scale dependency of precipitation spatial variability. Influences of environmental controls on soil moisture spatial variability at large scales are discussed. The results of this study should be useful for diagnosing large scale soil moisture estimates and for improving the estimation of land surface processes.

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Drought Relief and Reversal over North America from 1500 to 2016

Earth Interactions ◽

10.1175/ei-d-20-0020.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 94-107

Author(s):

M. C. A. Torbenson ◽

D. W. Stahle ◽

I. M. Howard ◽

D. J. Burnette ◽

D. Griffin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

North America ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Temporal Stability ◽

Warm Season ◽

Cool Season ◽

Continental Scale ◽

The North ◽

Drought Relief

Abstract Season-to-season persistence of soil moisture drought varies across North America. Such interseasonal autocorrelation can have modest skill in forecasting future conditions several months in advance. Because robust instrumental observations of precipitation span less than 100 years, the temporal stability of the relationship between seasonal moisture anomalies is uncertain. The North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) is a gridded network of separately reconstructed cool-season (December–April) and warm-season (May–July) precipitation series and offers new insights on the intra-annual changes in drought for up to 2000 years. Here, the NASPA precipitation reconstructions are rescaled to represent the long-term soil moisture balance during the cool season and 3-month-long atmospheric moisture during the warm season. These rescaled seasonal reconstructions are then used to quantify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of cool-season drought that was relieved or reversed during the following summer months. The adjusted seasonal reconstructions reproduce the general patterns of large-scale drought amelioration and termination in the instrumental record during the twentieth century and are used to estimate relief and reversals for the most skillfully reconstructed past 500 years. Subcontinental-to-continental-scale reversals of cool-season drought in the following warm season have been rare, but the reconstructions display periods prior to the instrumental data of increased reversal probabilities for the mid-Atlantic region and the U.S. Southwest. Drought relief at the continental scale may arise in part from macroscale ocean–atmosphere processes, whereas the smaller-scale regional reversals may reflect land surface feedbacks and stochastic variability.

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Using data assimilation to optimize pedotransfer functions using large-scale in-situ soil moisture observations

10.5194/hess-2020-359 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Elizabeth Cooper ◽

Eleanor Blyth ◽

Hollie Cooper ◽

Rich Ellis ◽

Ewan Pinnington ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Pedotransfer Functions ◽

Surface Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Land Surface Models ◽

Surface Models

Abstract. Soil moisture predictions from land surface models are important in hydrological, ecological and meteorological applications. In recent years the availability of wide-area soil-moisture measurements has increased, but few studies have combined model-based soil moisture predictions with in-situ observations beyond the point scale. Here we show that we can markedly improve soil moisture estimates from the JULES land surface model using field scale observations and data assimilation techniques. Rather than directly updating soil moisture estimates towards observed values, we optimize constants in the underlying pedotransfer functions, which relate soil texture to JULES soil physics parameters. In this way we generate a single set of newly calibrated pedotransfer functions based on observations from a number of UK sites with different soil textures. We demonstrate that calibrating a pedotransfer function in this way can improve the performance of land surface models, leading to the potential for better flood, drought and climate projections.

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Land–Atmosphere Interaction in Tropical Africa

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.779 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Cathy Hohenegger

Keyword(s):

Heat Flux ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Latent Heat ◽

Latent Heat Flux ◽

Surface State ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Moisture Distribution ◽

Sahel Region ◽

The Impact

Even though many features of the vegetation and of the soil moisture distribution over Africa reflect its climatic zones, the land surface has the potential to feed back on the atmosphere and on the climate of Africa. The land surface and the atmosphere communicate via the surface energy budget. A particularly important control of the land surface, besides its control on albedo, is on the partitioning between sensible and latent heat flux. In a soil moisture-limited regime, for instance, an increase in soil moisture leads to an increase in latent heat flux at the expanse of the sensible heat flux. The result is a cooling and a moistening of the planetary boundary layer. On the one hand, this thermodynamically affects the atmosphere by altering the stability and the moisture content of the vertical column. Depending on the initial atmospheric profile, convection may be enhanced or suppressed. On the other hand, a confined perturbation of the surface state also has a dynamical imprint on the atmospheric flow by generating horizontal gradients in temperature and pressure. Such gradients spin up shallow circulations that affect the development of convection. Whereas the importance of such circulations for the triggering of convection over the Sahel region is well accepted and well understood, the effect of such circulations on precipitation amounts as well as on mature convective systems remains unclear. Likewise, the magnitude of the impact of large-scale perturbations of the land surface state on the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, such as the West African monsoon, has long been debated. One key issue is that such interactions have been mainly investigated in general circulation models where the key involved processes have to rely on uncertain parameterizations, making a definite assessment difficult.

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An application of a large scale conceptual hydrological model over the Elbe region

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-3-363-1999 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 363-374 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

M. Lobmeyr ◽

D. Lohmann ◽

C. Ruhe

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Sunshine Duration ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Scale Model ◽

Surface Parameterization ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Daily Sunshine ◽

Surface Scheme ◽

The Baltic

Abstract. This paper investigates the ability of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model to reproduce streamflow in the catchment of the lower Elbe River, Germany. The VIC-2L model, a hydrologically-based land surface scheme (LSS) which has been tested extensively in the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS), is put up on the rotated grid of 1/6 degree of the atmospheric regional scale model (REMO) used in the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX). For a 10 year period, the VIC-2L model is forced in daily time steps with measured daily means of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind speed, air humidity and daily sunshine duration. VIC-2L model output of surface runoff and baseflow is used as input for the routing model, which transforms modelled runoff into streamflow, which is compared to measured streamflow at selected gauge stations. The water balance of the basin is investigated and the model results on daily, monthly and annual time scales are discussed. Discrepancies appear in time periods where snow and ice processes are important. Extreme flood events are analyzed in more dital. The influence of calibration with respect to runoff is examined.

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Large Scale Monitoring of Land Surface with Multitemporal AMSR-E Data and Retrieval of Soil Moisture

2006 IEEE MicroRad ◽

10.1109/micrad.2006.1677084 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

S. Paloscia ◽

E. Santi ◽

G. Macelloni ◽

S. Pettinato ◽

P. Pampaloni

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale

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Toward a Surface Soil Moisture Product at High Spatiotemporal Resolution: Temporally Interpolated, Spatially Disaggregated SMOS Data

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-16-0280.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 183-200 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Y. Malbéteau ◽

O. Merlin ◽

G. Balsamo ◽

S. Er-Raki ◽

S. Khabba ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Temporal Resolution ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Surface Soil ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Open Loop ◽

Surface Model ◽

Surface Soil Moisture ◽

Spatiotemporal Resolution

Abstract High spatial and temporal resolution surface soil moisture is required for most hydrological and agricultural applications. The recently developed Disaggregation based on Physical and Theoretical Scale Change (DisPATCh) algorithm provides 1-km-resolution surface soil moisture by downscaling the 40-km Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) soil moisture using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. However, the temporal resolution of DisPATCh data is constrained by the temporal resolution of SMOS (a global coverage every 3 days) and further limited by gaps in MODIS images due to cloud cover. This paper proposes an approach to overcome these limitations based on the assimilation of the 1-km-resolution DisPATCh data into a simple dynamic soil model forced by (inaccurate) precipitation data. The performance of the approach was assessed using ground measurements of surface soil moisture in the Yanco area in Australia and the Tensift-Haouz region in Morocco during 2014. It was found that the analyzed daily 1-km-resolution surface soil moisture compared slightly better to in situ data for all sites than the original disaggregated soil moisture products. Over the entire year, assimilation increased the correlation coefficient between estimated soil moisture and ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.70, whereas the mean unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) slightly decreased from 0.07 to 0.06 m3 m−3 compared to the open-loop force–restore model. The proposed assimilation scheme has significant potential for large-scale applications over semiarid areas, since the method is based on data available at the global scale together with a parsimonious land surface model.

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Assimilation of SMOS brightness temperature into a large-scale distributed conceptual hydrological model

10.5194/hess-2019-414 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Renaud Hostache ◽

Dominik Rains ◽

Kaniska Mallick ◽

Marco Chini ◽

Ramona Pelich ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Brightness Temperature ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Surface Model ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

Temperature Observations

Abstract. The main objective of this study is to investigate how brightness temperature observations from satellite microwave sensors may help in reducing errors and uncertainties in soil moisture simulations with a large-scale conceptual hydro-meteorological model. In particular, we use as forcings the ERA-Interim public dataset and we couple the CMEM radiative transfer model with a hydro-meteorological model enabling therefore soil moisture and SMOS-like brightness temperature simulations. The hydro-meteorological model is configured using recent developments of the SUPERFLEX framework, which enables tailoring the model structure to the specific needs of the application as well as to data availability and computational requirements. In this case, the model spatial resolution is adapted to the spatial grid of the satellite data, and the soil stratification is tailored to the satellite datasets to be assimilated and the forcing data. The hydrological model is first calibrated using a sample of SMOS brightness temperature observations (period 2010–2011). Next, SMOS-derived brightness temperature observations are sequentially assimilated into the coupled SUPERFLEX-CMEM model (period 2010–2015). For this experiment, a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is used and the meteorological forcings (ERA interim-based rainfall, air and soil temperature) are perturbed to generate a background ensemble. Each time a SMOS observation is available, the SUPERFLEX state variables related to the water content in the various soil layers are updated and the model simulations are resumed until the next SMOS observation becomes available. Our empirical results show that the SUPERFLEX-CMEM modelling chain is capable of predicting soil moisture at a performance level similar to that obtained for the same study area and with a quasi-identical experimental set up using the CLM land surface model. This shows that a simple model, when carefully calibrated, can yield performance level similar to that of a much more complex model. The correlation between simulated and in situ observed soil moisture ranges from 0.62 to 0.72. The assimilation of SMOS brightness temperature observation into the SUPERFLEX-CMEM modelling chain improves the correlation between predicted and in situ observed soil moisture by 0.03 on average showing improvements similar to those obtained using the CLM land surface model.

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Soil Moisture Influence on the Incidence of Summer Mesoscale Convective Systems in the U.S. Great Plains

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-21-0140.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rachel Gaal ◽

James L. Kinter

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Great Plains ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽

Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽

Initiation Point ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

The U.S

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCS) are known to develop under ideal conditions of temperature and humidity profiles and large-scale dynamic forcing. Recent work, however, has shown that summer MCS events can occur under weak synoptic forcing or even unfavorable large-scale environments. When baroclinic forcing is weak, convection may be triggered by anomalous conditions at the land surface. This work evaluates land surface conditions for summer MCS events forming in the U.S. Great Plains using an MCS database covering the contiguous United States east of the Rocky Mountains, in boreal summers 2004-2016. After isolating MCS cases where synoptic-scale influences are not the main driver of development (i.e. only non-squall line storms), antecedent soil moisture conditions are evaluated over two domain sizes (1.25° and 5° squares) centered on the mean position of the storm initiation. A negative correlation between soil moisture and MCS initiation is identified for the smaller domain, indicating that MCS events tend to be initiated over patches of anomalously dry soils of ~100-km scale, but not significantly so. For the larger domain, soil moisture heterogeneity, with anomalously dry soils (anomalously wet soils) located northeast (southwest) of the initiation point, is associated with MCS initiation. This finding is similar to previous results in the Sahel and Europe that suggest that induced meso-β circulations from surface heterogeneity can drive convection initiation.

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Role of Subsurface Physics in the Assimilation of Surface Soil Moisture Observations

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/2009jhm1134.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 1534-1547 ◽

Cited By ~ 115

Author(s):

Sujay V. Kumar ◽

Rolf H. Reichle ◽

Randal D. Koster ◽

Wade T. Crow ◽

Christa D. Peters-Lidard

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Large Scale ◽

Surface Soil ◽

Root Zone ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Surface Model ◽

Surface Soil Moisture ◽

Community Land Model ◽

Assimilation System

Abstract Root-zone soil moisture controls the land–atmosphere exchange of water and energy, and exhibits memory that may be useful for climate prediction at monthly scales. Assimilation of satellite-based surface soil moisture observations into a land surface model is an effective way to estimate large-scale root-zone soil moisture. The propagation of surface information into deeper soil layers depends on the model-specific representation of subsurface physics that is used in the assimilation system. In a suite of experiments, synthetic surface soil moisture observations are assimilated into four different models [Catchment, Mosaic, Noah, and Community Land Model (CLM)] using the ensemble Kalman filter. The authors demonstrate that identical twin experiments significantly overestimate the information that can be obtained from the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. The second key result indicates that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root-zone information is higher when the surface–root zone coupling is stronger. The experiments also suggest that (faced with unknown true subsurface physics) overestimating surface–root zone coupling in the assimilation system provides more robust skill improvements in the root zone compared with underestimating the coupling. When CLM is excluded from the analysis, the skill improvements from using models with different vertical coupling strengths are comparable for different subsurface truths. Last, the skill improvements through assimilation were found to be sensitive to the regional climate and soil types.

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