scholarly journals Response of a global atmospheric circulation model to spatio-temporal stochastic forcing: ensemble statistics

2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 453-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Pérez-Muñuzuri ◽  
M. N. Lorenzo ◽  
P. Montero ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
E. Kirk ◽  
...  

Abstract. The response of a simplified global atmospheric circulation model (PUMA) to spatiotemporal stochastic forcing is analyzed using the statistical measures originally developed for ensemble forecast evaluation. The nontrivial effects of time and length correlations of the stochastic forcing on the ensemble scores (e.g. spread and 'error') are studied. A maximum for these scores is observed to occur for specific values of the correlation time. The effects of multiplicative and additive contributions of the correlated noise are analyzed in terms of the noise and PUMA parameters.

2009 ◽  
Vol 699 (1) ◽  
pp. 564-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam P. Showman ◽  
Jonathan J. Fortney ◽  
Yuan Lian ◽  
Mark S. Marley ◽  
Richard S. Freedman ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
pp. 295-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam P. Showman ◽  
Andrew P. Ingersoll ◽  
Richard Achterberg ◽  
Yohai Kaspi

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rishav Goyal ◽  
Martin Jucker ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Harry Hendon ◽  
Matthew England

Abstract A distinctive feature of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation is the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3) pattern, characterized by three high and three low-pressure centers around the SH extratropics. This feature is present in both the mean atmospheric circulation and its variability on daily, seasonal and interannual timescales. While the ZW3 pattern has significant impacts on meridional heat transport and Antarctic sea ice extent, the reason for its existence remains uncertain, although it has long been assumed to be linked to the existence of three major land masses in the SH extratropics. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the stationery ZW3 pattern is instead driven by zonal asymmetric deep atmospheric convection in the tropics, with little to no role played by the orography or land masses in the extratropics. Localized regions of deep convection in the tropics form a local Hadley cell which in turn creates a wave source in the subtropics that excites a poleward and eastward propagating wave train which forms stationary waves in the SH high latitudes. Our findings suggest that changes in tropical deep convection, either due to natural variability or climate change, will impact the zonal wave 3 pattern, with implications for Southern Hemisphere climate, ocean circulation, and sea-ice.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Qing Zhou ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Shuze Jia ◽  
Junli Jin ◽  
Shanshan Lv ◽  
...  

Clouds are significant in the global radiation budget, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. However, knowledge regarding the observed climatology of the cloud vertical structure (CVS) over Beijing is still poor. Based on high-resolution radiosonde observations at Beijing Nanjiao Weather Observatory (BNWO) during the period 2010–2017, the method for identifying CVS depending on height-resolved relative humidity thresholds is improved, and CVS estimation by radiosonde is compared with observations by millimeter-wave cloud radar and ceilometer at the same site. Good consistency is shown between the three instruments. Then, the CVS climatology, including the frequency distribution and seasonal variation, is investigated. Overall, the occurrence frequency (OF) of cloudy cases in Beijing is slightly higher than that of clear-sky cases, and the cloud OF is highest in summer and lowest in winter. Single-layer clouds and middle-level clouds are dominant in Beijing. In addition, the average cloud top height (CTH), cloud base height (CBH), and cloud thickness in Beijing are 6.2 km, 4.0 km, and 2.2 km, respectively, and show the trend of reaching peaks in spring and minimums in winter. In terms of frequency distribution, the CTH basically resides below an altitude of 16 km, and approximately 43% of the CBHs are located at altitudes of 0.5–1.5 km. The cloud OF has only one peak located at altitudes of 4–8 km in spring, whereas it shows a trimodal distribution in other seasons. The height at which the cloud OF reaches its peak is highest in summer and lowest in winter. To the best of our knowledge, the cloud properties analyzed here are the first to elucidate the distribution and temporal variation of the CVS in Beijing from a long-term sounding perspective, and these results will provide a scientific observation basis for improving the atmospheric circulation model, as well as comparisons and verifications for measurements by ground-based remote sensing equipment.


2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 2173-2193 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Risi ◽  
A. Landais ◽  
R. Winkler ◽  
F. Vimeux

Abstract. Combined measurements of the H218O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H218O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H217O have led to another second-order parameter: 17O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17O-excess.


2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 1863-1880 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Heinrich ◽  
X. Blanchard

Abstract Atmospheric transport of the natural radionuclide 210Pb is simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) and calculated surface concentrations are compared with those recorded at the Tahiti station on a daily scale. Numerical results for 2006 show the underestimation of concentrations for most recorded peaks. The purpose of this paper is to explain the observed discrepancies, to evaluate the GCM physical parameterizations, and to determine by numerical means the concentrations at Tahiti for a pollutant circulating across the South Pacific Ocean. Three meteorological situations in 2006 are further analyzed. Circulation over Tahiti for these periods is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model using four nested grids with resolutions ranging from 27 to 1 km. The calculated wind fields are validated by those observed at two stations on the northwest coast of Tahiti, which is exposed both to topography-induced vortices and to thermally driven local breezes. Atmospheric dispersion of an offshore plume is then calculated by a particle Lagrangian transport model, driven by the mesoscale model at 1- and 81-km resolutions, representing local and global circulations, respectively. Simulations at 1-km resolution show the complex atmospheric circulation over Tahiti, which results in a large spatial and temporal variability of 210Pb surface concentrations on an hourly scale. The impact of local circulation is, however, limited when daily averaged concentrations at the station are considered. Under the studied regimes, transport simulations at the two resolutions lead to similar daily averaged concentrations. The deficiencies of the GCM in simulating daily averaged 210Pb concentrations could be attributable to the deep convection parameterization.


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