scholarly journals Detecting nonlinearity in time series driven by non-Gaussian noise: the case of river flows

2004 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Laio ◽  
A. Porporato ◽  
L. Ridolfi ◽  
S. Tamea

Abstract. Several methods exist for the detection of nonlinearity in univariate time series. In the present work we consider riverflow time series to infer the dynamical characteristics of the rainfall-runoff transformation. It is shown that the non-Gaussian nature of the driving force (rainfall) can distort the results of such methods, in particular when surrogate data techniques are used. Deterministic versus stochastic (DVS) plots, conditionally applied to the decay phases of the time series, are instead proved to be a suitable tool to detect nonlinearity in processes driven by non-Gaussian (Poissonian) noise. An application to daily discharges from three Italian rivers provides important clues to the presence of nonlinearity in the rainfall-runoff transformation.

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1995-2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Athanasiu ◽  
G. P. Pavlos ◽  
D. V. Sarafopoulos ◽  
E. T. Sarris

Abstract. This paper is a companion to the first work (Pavlos et al., 2003), which contains significant results concerning the dynamical characteristics of the magnetospheric energetic ions’ time series. The low dimensional and nonlinear deterministic characteristics of the same time series were described in Pavlos et al. (2003). In this second work we present significant results concerning the Lyapunov spectrum, the mutual information and prediction models. The dynamical characteristics of the magnetospheric ions’ signals are compared with corresponding characteristics obtained for the stochastic Lorenz system when a coloured noise perturbation is present. In addition, the null hypothesis is tested for the dynamical characteristics of the magnetospheric ions’ signal by using nonlinear surrogate data. The results of the above comparisons provide significant evidence for the existence of low dimensional chaotic dynamics underlying the energetic ions’ time series.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (energetic particles) – Radio sciences (nonlinear phenomena)


1997 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 173-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Pradhan ◽  
P. K. Sadasivan

The measure of dimensional complexity has the potential for feature extraction, modeling and prediction of EEG signals. However, the nonlinear dynamics of neuronal processes is under criticism that EEG signals may have a simpler stochastic description and chaotic dynamical measures of EEG may be spurious or unnecessary. Surrogate-data testing has been propounded to detect nonlinearity and chaos in experimental time series and to differentiate it from linear stochastic processes or colored noises. The surrogate data tests of brain signals (EEG) have produced equivocal results. Therefore, we examine the surrogate testing procedure using numerical data of classical chaotic systems, mixed sine waves, white Gaussian and colored Gaussian noises and typical EEGs. White Gaussian noise and classical chaotic time series are easily discerned by the surrogate-data test. However, a colored Gaussian noise data of low correlation dimensions (D2) or mixed sine waves containing less number of sinusoids show behaviors similar to the low dimensional deterministic chaotic systems. There are significant differences in D2 values between the original and surrogate data sets. The colored Gaussian noise appears linear and stochastic only when there is an increased randomness in its pattern and the signal is high dimensional. Our results clearly indicate that the "surrogate testing" alone may not be a sufficient test for distinguishing colored noises from low dimensional chaos. The EEG time series produce finite correlation dimensions. The surrogate testing of 8 independent realizations of different forms of EEG activities produce significantly different D2 values than the original data sets. Apparently many natural phenomena follow deterministic chaos and as the dimensional complexity of the system increases (D2 > 5) it may approximate a stochastic process. Thus EEG appears unlikely to have originated from a linear system driven by white noise.


2001 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 633
Author(s):  
LIU YAO-ZONG ◽  
WEN XI-SEN ◽  
HU NIAO-QING

1999 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. P. Pavlos ◽  
D. Kugiumtzis ◽  
M. A. Athanasiu ◽  
N. Hatzigeorgiu ◽  
D. Diamantidis ◽  
...  

Abstract. In this study we have used dynamical characteristies such as Lyapunov exponents, nonlinear dynamic models and mutual information for the nonlinear analysis of the magnetospheric AE index time series. Similarly with the geometrical characteristic studied in Pavlos et al. (1999b), we have found significant differences between the original time series and its surrogate data. These results also suggest the rejection of the null hypothesis that the AE index belongs to the family of stochastic linear signals undergoing a static nonlinear distortion. Finally, we believe that these results support the hypothesis of nonlinearity and chaos for the magnetospheric dynamics.


2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (07) ◽  
pp. 2071-2095 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. ILIOPOULOS ◽  
G. P. PAVLOS

In this study, we present results concerning seismogenesis in the Hellenic region (land and sea of Greece), applying nonlinear analysis to an earthquake time series. The model of the dripping faucet is used as a physical interpretation of the seismic process and the construction of inter-event seismic time series. Geometrical and dynamical characteristics estimated in the reconstructed state space support the low dimensional, chaotic character of the global seismic process in the Hellenic region. The method of stochastic surrogate data was employed to the exclusion of "pseudo chaos" caused by the nonlinear distortion of a purely stochastic process. These results are in agreement with general theoretical models concerning distributed driven threshold dynamics applied to the case of seismic processes. Moreover, the observed global character of low dimensionality and chaoticity over such a complex system of faults supports the hypothesis that seismogenesis is characterized by spatiotemporal intermittent chaos throughout the Hellenic region.


2001 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 1241
Author(s):  
LIU YAO-ZONG ◽  
WEN XI-SEN ◽  
HU NIAO-QING

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 537-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Önskog ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke ◽  
Abdel Hannachi

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. It is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatiotemporal scales. Here, the authors study the statistical properties of two time series of the daily NAO index. Previous NAO modeling attempts only considered Gaussian noise, which can be inconsistent with the system complexity. Here, it is found that an autoregressive model with non-Gaussian noise provides a better fit to the time series. This result holds also when considering time series for the four seasons separately. The usefulness of the proposed model is evaluated by means of an investigation of its forecast skill.


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