scholarly journals Consideration of various aspects in a drift study of MH370 debris

Ocean Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Nesterov

Abstract. On 7 March 2014, a Boeing 777-200ER aircraft operated by Malaysian Airlines as MH370 on the route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing abruptly ceased all communications and disappeared with 239 people aboard, leaving its fate a mystery. The subsequent analysis of so-called satellite handshakes supplemented by military radar tracking has suggested that the aircraft ended up in the southern Indian Ocean. The eventual recovery of a number of fragments washed ashore in several countries has confirmed its crash. A number of drift studies were undertaken to assist in locating the crash site, mostly focusing either on the spatial distribution of the debris washed ashore or on the efficacy of the aerial search operation. A recent biochemical analysis of the barnacles attached to the flaperon (the first fragment found in La Réunion) has indicated that their growth likely began in water of 24 °C; then the temperature dropped to 18 °C, and then it rose up again to 25 °C. An attempt was made in the present study to take into consideration all these aspects. The analysis was conducted by means of numerical screening of 40 hypothetical locations of the crash site along the so-called seventh arc. Obtained results indicate the likelihood of the crash site to be located between 25.5 and 30.5° S, with the segment from 28 to 30° S being the most promising.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Nesterov

Abstract. On March 7, 2014, a Boeing 777-200ER aircraft operated by Malaysian Airlines on the route MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijin abruptly ceased all communications and disappeared with 239 people aboard, leaving a mystery about its fate. The subsequent analysis of so-called satellite handshakes supplemented by military radar tracking has suggested that the aircraft ended up in the southern Indian Ocean. Eventual recovery of a number of fragments washed ashore in several countries has confirmed its crash. A number of drift studies were undertaken to assist in locating the crash site, mostly focusing either on the spatial distribution of the washed ashore debris or efficacy of the aerial search operation. A recent biochemical analysis of the barnacles attached to the flaperon (the first fragment found in La Réunion) has indicated that their growth likely began in the water of 24 °C, then the temperature dropped to 18 °C, and then it rose up again to 25 °C. An attempt was made in the present study to take into consideration all these aspects. The analysis was conducted by the means of numerical screening of 40 hypothetical locations of the crash site along the so-called 7th arc. Obtained results indicate the likelihood of the crash site to be located between 25.5° S and 30.5° S latitudes, with the segment from 28° S to 30° S being the most promising.


This chapter delivers the final conclusions that were raised due to the critical question of why MH370 has not ended up in the Southern Indian Ocean. In this view, the application of the multiobjective genetic algorithm is implemented to explore the final destination of MH370. The results show that the MH370's last destination is not near the coastal water of Perth, Australia as obtained by using a multiobjective algorithm. In this understanding, the Pareto optimization has allowed the author to see the impact of the Southern Indian Ocean dynamics on the MH370 debris trajectory movements. Moreover, the Pareto front verified that the found fragments do not belong to MH370 fuselage. There is a 95% confidence level that the flight found in Cambodia is not MH370. Finally, MH370 has been hijacked and driven to Diego Garcia as it is a short route from the departure point at International Malaysia Airport, Kuala Lumpur (KLIA).


2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Ashton ◽  
Alan Shuster Bruce ◽  
Gary Colledge ◽  
Mark Dickinson

At 17:22 UTC on 7th March 2014 Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 carrying 239 passengers and crew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing lost contact with Air Traffic Control and was subsequently reported missing. Over the following days an extensive air and sea search was made around the last reported location of the aircraft in the Gulf of Thailand without success. Subsequent analysis of signals transmitted by the aircraft's satellite communications terminal to Inmarsat's 3F1 Indian Ocean Region satellite indicated that the aircraft continued to fly for several hours after loss of contact, resulting in the search moving to the southern Indian Ocean. This paper presents an analysis of the satellite signals that resulted in the change of search area.


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