scholarly journals Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) – experimental design

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 963-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
R. M. DeConto
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Ice Sheet Modelling

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher than today. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability; however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will provide the first assessment as to the ice sheet model dependency of ice sheet predictions for the mPWP. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present-day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.

scholarly journals Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) – experimental design

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 2661-2686 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
R. M. DeConto
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Ice Sheet Modelling

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million yr ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability, however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks/approaches mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will address these uncertainties. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.

scholarly journals Using results from the PlioMIP ensemble to investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the warm Pliocene

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 3483-3535 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
S. J. Hunter ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Model Dependency

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than pre-industrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the warmest intervals of the mid-Pliocene is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modelling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show Pliocene ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of surface albedo differences between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints in developing our understanding of the Pliocene Greenland ice sheet.

scholarly journals Using results from the PlioMIP ensemble to investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 403-424 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
S. J. Hunter ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Model Dependency

Abstract. During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than pre-industrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modelling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near-modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

ISMIP6 Future Projections for Antarctica performed using the AWI PISM ice sheet model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kleiner ◽  
Jeremie Schmiedel ◽  
Angelika Humbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Non Local ◽  
The Impact

<p>Ice sheets constitute the largest and most uncertain potential source of future sea-level rise. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) brings together a consortium of international ice sheet and climate models to explore the contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to future sea-level rise.</p> <p>We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, pism-docs.org) to carry out spinup and projection simulations for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our treatment of the ice-ocean boundary condition previously based on 3D ocean temperatures (initMIP-Antarctica) has been adopted to use the ISMIP6 parameterisation and 3D ocean forcing fields (temperature and salinity) according to the ISMIP6 protocol.</p> <p>In this study, we analyse the impact of the choices made during the model initialisation procedure on the initial state. We present the AWI PISM results of the ISMIP6 projection simulations and investigate the ice sheet response for individual basins. In the analysis, we distinguish between the local and non-local ice shelf basal melt parameterisation.</p>

scholarly journals Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie M. J. Nowicki ◽  
Tony Payne ◽  
Eric Larour ◽  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea level change.

scholarly journals Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity and sea level contribution in the mid-Pliocene warm period – Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project PLISMIP

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 2821-2856 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
B. de Boer ◽  
E. J. Stone ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important to constrain the potential impacts of future climate change. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (2.97 to 3.29 Ma) has global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates, nevertheless Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities, than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in East and South as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies, although extents of those ice caps need to be further constrained by using a range of GCM climate forcings.

scholarly journals Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the Late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 5539-5588 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. de Boer ◽  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
J. Bernales ◽  
E. Gasson ◽  
H. Goelzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Bedrock Topography ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of four sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean climate model runs for the pre-industrial and the Pliocene. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, although the models are setup with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene simulations using the Bedmap1 bedrock topography, some models show a small retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. This can be ascribed to either the surface mass balance, as the HadCM3 Pliocene climate shows a significant increase over the Wilkes and Aurora basin, or the initial bedrock topography. For the latter, our simulations with the recently published Bedmap2 bedrock topography indicate a significantly larger contribution to Pliocene sea-level rise from the East Antarctic ice sheet for all six models relative to the simulations with Bedmap1.

scholarly journals Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 4521-4545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie M. J. Nowicki ◽  
Anthony Payne ◽  
Eric Larour ◽  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet–climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

scholarly journals Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 881-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. de Boer ◽  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
J. Bernales ◽  
E. Gasson ◽  
H. Goelzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

Contrasting contributions to future sea level under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony Payne ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheets

<p>Projections of sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models.  The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared to the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models under two future climate scenarios to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the multi ice sheet models under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for the Greenland ice sheet.  </p>

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