scholarly journals A three-dimensional full Stokes model of the grounding line dynamics: effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Favier ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
T. Zwinger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Contact Point ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Surface ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Flow Equations ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. The West Antarctic ice sheet is confined by a large area of ice shelves, fed by inland ice through fast flowing ice streams. The dynamics of the grounding line, which is the line-boundary between grounded ice and the downstream ice shelf, has a major influence on the dynamics of the whole ice sheet. However, most ice sheet models use simplifications of the flow equations, as they do not include all the stress components, and are known to fail in their representation of the grounding line dynamics. Here, we present a 3-D full Stokes model of a marine ice sheet, in which the flow problem is coupled with the evolution of the upper and lower free surfaces, and the position of the grounding line is determined by solving a contact problem between the shelf/sheet lower surface and the bedrock. Simulations are performed using the open-source finite-element code Elmer/Ice within a parallel environment. The model's ability to cope with a curved grounding line and the effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf are investigated through prognostic simulations. Starting from a steady state, the sea level is slightly decreased to create a contact point between a seamount and the ice shelf. The model predicts a dramatic decrease of the shelf velocities, leading to an advance of the grounding line until both grounded zones merge together, during which an ice rumple forms above the contact area at the pinning point. Finally, we show that once the contact is created, increasing the sea level to its initial value does not release the pinning point and has no effect on the ice dynamics, indicating a stabilising effect of pinning points.

scholarly journals A three-dimensional full Stokes model of the grounding line dynamics: effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1995-2033 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Favier ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
T. Zwinger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Contact Point ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Flow Equations ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. The West Antarctic ice sheet is confined by a large area of ice shelves, fed by inland ice through fast flowing ice streams. The dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the line-boundary between grounded ice and the downstream ice shelf, has a major influence on the dynamics of the whole ice sheet. However, most of the ice sheet models use simplifications of the flow equations, i.e., they do not include all the stress components, and are known to fail in their mathematical representation of the grounding line dynamics. Here, we present a 3-D full Stokes model of a marine ice sheet, in which the flow problem is coupled with the evolution of the upper and lower free surfaces, and the position of the grounding line determined by solving a contact problem between the shelf/sheet lower surface and the bedrock. Simulations are performed using the open-source finite-element code Elmer/Ice within a parallel environment. The effect of a pinning point, inserted beneath the ice shelf, on the ice dynamics is studied to demonstrate the model's ability to cope with curved and multiple grounding lines. Starting from a steady state, the sea level is slightly decreased to create a contact point between a seamount and the ice shelf. The model predicts a dramatic decrease of the shelf velocities, leading to an advance of the grounding line until both grounded zones merge together, during which an ice rumple forms above the contact area at the pinning point. Finally, we show that once the contact is created, increasing the sea level to its initial value does not cease the interaction with the pinning point and has no effect on the ice dynamics, indicating a stabilizing effect of pinning points.

scholarly journals Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel Favier ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Sophie Berger ◽  
Reinhard Drews
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Dronning Maud Land

Abstract. The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart, because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by (more stable) grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennia. Overall, the sub-ice shelf melting substantially impacts the sea level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the collapse of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory collapse is controlled by small pinning points within the ice shelves, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning has a small effect on the total amount of sea level rise but locally affects the timing of grounding-line migration, advancing the collapse of a promontory by hundreds of years. On the other hand, omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases the sea level contribution by 10 % and delays the promontory collapse by almost a millennium. This very subtle influence of pinning points on ice dynamics acts on kilometre scale and calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins that will improve sea-level predictions.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1699-1710 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Seroussi ◽  
M. Morlighem ◽  
E. Rignot ◽  
J. Mouginot ◽  
E. Larour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Major Contributor ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Climatic Impact ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer. Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if ocean-induced melting is reduced.

scholarly journals Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Levermann ◽  
R. Winkelmann ◽  
S. Nowicki ◽  
J. L. Fastook ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Basal Ice ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02–0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07–0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04–0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

scholarly journals Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2623-2635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel Favier ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Sophie Berger ◽  
Reinhard Drews
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Dronning Maud Land

Abstract. The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10 %, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10 %, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. Pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.

scholarly journals Numerical modelling of ice-sheet dynamics across the Vostok subglacial lake, central East Antarctica

2000 ◽  
Vol 46 (153) ◽  
pp. 197-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Mayer ◽  
Martin J. Siegert
Keyword(s):  
Lake Water ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Particle Flow ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Flow Paths ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Subglacial Lake ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractA numerical model of the ice-sheet/ice-shelf transition was used to investigate ice-sheet dynamics across the large subglacial lake beneath Vostok station, central East Antarctica. European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS-1) altimetry of the ice surface and 60 MHz radio-echo sounding (RES) of the ice-sheet base and internal ice-sheet layering were used to develop a conceptual flowline across the ice sheet, which the model used as input. The model calculates horizontal and vertical velocities and stresses, from which particle flow paths can be obtained, and the ice-sheet temperature distribution. An inverse approach to modelling was adopted, where particle flow paths were forced to match those identified from internal RES layering. Results show that ice dynamics across the inflow grounding line are similar to an ice-sheet/ice-shelf transition. Model particle flow paths match internal RES layering when ice is (a) taken away from the ice base across the first 2 km of the flowline over the lake and (b) added to the base across the remainder of the lake. We contend that the process causing this transfer of ice is likely to be melting of ice and freezing of water at the ice–water interface. Other explanations, such as enhanced rates of accumulation over the grounding line, or three-dimensional convergent/divergent flow of ice are inconsistent with available measurements. Such melting and refreezing would be responsible for circulation and mixing of at least the surface layers of the lake water. Our model suggests that several tens of metres of refrozen “basal ice” would accrete from lake water to the ice sheet before the ice regrounds.

scholarly journals Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1117-1168 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Levermann ◽  
R. Winkelmann ◽  
S. Nowicki ◽  
J. L. Fastook ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Basal Ice ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we derive dynamic ice-sheet response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. Under the assumptions of linear-response theory we project future ice-discharge for each model, each region and each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) using oceanic temperatures from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP-5, and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-model response is combined into an uncertainty range of future Antarctic ice-discharge induced from basal ice-shelf melt. The uncertainty range we derived for the Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 is in full agreement with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared with the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice-loss for the 21st century (Table 6) is 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90%-range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 scenario and 0.09 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90%-range: 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5 if models with explicit ice-shelf representation are applied. These results were obtained using a time delay between the surface warming signal and the subsurface oceanic warming as observed in the CMIP-5 models. Without this time delay the values increase to 0.09 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.17 m; 90%-range: 0.02–0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66%-range: 0.07–0.28 m; 90%-range: 0.04–0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. Our results are scenario dependent which is most visible in the upper percentiles of the distribution, i.e. highest contributions to sea level rise. All probability distributions, as provided in Fig. 12, are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse-resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. However, we find the main uncertainty to be introduced by the external forcing to the ice-sheets, i.e. the climatic and oceanic uncertainty dominate. The scaling coefficients for the four different drainage basins provide valuable information for further assessments of future Antarctic ice discharge.

scholarly journals Geometry and ice dynamics of the Darwin–Hatherton glacial system, Transantarctic Mountains

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (242) ◽  
pp. 959-972
Author(s):  
METTE K. GILLESPIE ◽  
WENDY LAWSON ◽  
WOLFGANG RACK ◽  
BRIAN ANDERSON ◽  
DONALD D. BLANKENSHIP ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
Basal Ice ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Flows ◽  
Ice Velocity ◽  
The Mean

ABSTRACTThe Darwin–Hatherton Glacial system (DHGS) connects the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) with the Ross Ice Shelf and is a key area for understanding past variations in ice thickness of surrounding ice masses. Here we present the first detailed measurements of ice thickness and grounding zone characteristics of the DHGS as well as new measurements of ice velocity. The results illustrate the changes that occur in glacier geometry and ice flux as ice flows from the polar plateau and into the Ross Ice Shelf. The ice discharge and the mean basal ice shelf melt for the first 8.5 km downstream of the grounding line amount to 0.24 ± 0.05 km3 a−1 and 0.3 ± 0.1 m a−1, respectively. As the ice begins to float, ice thickness decreases rapidly and basal terraces develop. Constructed maps of glacier geometry suggest that ice drainage from the EAIS into the Darwin Glacier occurs primarily through a deep subglacial canyon. By contrast, ice thins to <200 m at the head of the much slower flowing Hatherton Glacier. The glaciological field study establishes an improved basis for the interpretation of glacial drift sheets at the link between the EAIS and the Ross Ice Sheet.

scholarly journals Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1844) ◽  
pp. 1637-1655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Rignot
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1 m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 °C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

scholarly journals Stopping the Flood: Could We Use Targeted Geoengineering to Mitigate Sea Level Rise?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Wolovick ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Dynamic Feedback ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Individual Source ◽  
Engineering Projects

Abstract. The Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) is a dynamic feedback that can cause an ice sheet to enter a runaway collapse. Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is the largest individual source of future sea level rise and may have already entered the MISI. Here, we use a suite of coupled ice–ocean flowband simulations to explore whether targeted geoengineering using an artificial sill or artificial ice rises could counter a collapse. Successful interventions occur when the floating ice shelf regrounds on the pinning points, increasing buttressing and reducing ice flux across the grounding line. Regrounding is more likely with a continuous sill that is able to block warm water transport to the grounding line. The smallest design we consider is comparable in scale to existing civil engineering projects but has only a 30 % success rate, while larger designs are more effective. There are multiple possible routes forward to improve upon the designs that we considered, and with decades or more to research designs it is plausible that the scientific community could come up with a plan that was both effective and achievable. While reducing emissions remains the short-term priority for minimizing the effects of climate change, in the long run humanity may need to develop contingency plans to deal with an ice sheet collapse.

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