scholarly journals Analisis Intervesi Fungsi Step Efek Program Tol-Laut Terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham TMAS.JK

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
pp. 47-54
Author(s):  
Wigid Hariadi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
External Events ◽  
Port Construction

Abstract. Intervention analysis is used to evaluate the effect of external events on a time series data. Sea-highway program is one of the leading programs Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla in presidential election 2014. So the author want to modeling the effect from Sea-highway programs on stock price movement in the shipping sector, TMAS.JK (Pelayaran Tempuran Emas tbk). After analyzing, proven that it has happened intervention on movement of daily stock price TMAS.JK caused by Sea-highway programs. Intervention I, on 11 August 2014, which was efect as a result of the election of the Joko Widodo-Jusuf kalla pair as President and vice President Republic of Indonesia on 22 july 2014. Intervention II, on 10 november 2014, president Joko Widodo speech in APEC about Sea-highway Program, and offering investment in port construction to foreign country. So that the model of time series analysis that right is intervention analysis model multi input step function, where the model is ARIMA (2,1,0), StepI (b=0, s=2, r=1), StepII (b=3, s=0, r=1).  Keywords: Intervention Analysis, Multi Input, Step Function, Sea-highway.    Abstrak. Analisis intervensi digunakan untuk mengevaluasi efek dari peristiwa eksternal pada suatu data time series. Program Tol-Laut merupakan salah satu program unggulan pasangan Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla dalam pemilu 2014. sehingga, penulis ingin memodelkan efek dari Program Tol-Laut terhadap pergerakan harga saham dibidang pelayaran, TMAS.JK (Pelayaran Tempuran Emas tbk). Setelah dilakukan analisis data, terbukti bahwa terjadi intervensi pada pergerakan harga saham harian TMAS.JK yang disebabkan oleh efek dari program Tol-Laut. Dimana intervensi I, pada tanggal 11 Agustus 2014, yang diduga sebagai dampak dari terpilihnya pasangan Joko widodo-Jusuf Kalla sebagai presiden dan wakil presiden Republik Indonesia pada tanggal 22 Juli 2014. Intervensi II, pada tanggal 10 November 2014, pidato Presiden Joko Widodo di forum APEC mengenai program  tol  laut, dan  menawarkan investasi dibidang pembangunan pelabuhan  kepada bangsa asing. Sehingga model analisis time series yang tepat adalah model analisis intervensi multi input fungsi step, dimana modelnya adalah ARIMA (2,1,0), StepI (b=0, s=2, r=1), StepII (b=3, s=0, r=1). Kata kunci: Analisis intervensi, Multi Input, fungsi step, Tol-Laut.

scholarly journals Analisis Intervensi Kebijakan Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL) Tahun 2017 Terhadap Pemakaian Listrik Wilayah SULSELRABAR

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zaki ◽  
Rahmat Syam ◽  
Ahmad Firjatullah Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Intervention Model ◽  
Diagnosis Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Of Intervention

Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian terapan mengenai analisis intervensi yang memodelkan data time series yang dipengaruhi oleh adanya suatu kejadian atau intervensi Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan model intervensi fungsi step dengan waktu intervensi T (mei 2017) yang didapatkan dari proses pemodelan ARIMA preintervensi, identifikasi responintervensi, estimasi parameter intervensi dan pemeriksaan diagnosis model intervensi. Adapun data yang digunakan adalah data pemakaian listrik (dalamKWh), kategori rumah tangga dengan daya 900 VA, wilayah Sulawesi Selatan Tenggara Barat (SULSELRABAR) periode Januari 2016 sampai dengan Desember 2017 yang diperoleh dari PT. PLN Persero Wilayah SULSELRABAR Makassar. Berdasarkan hasil analisis didapatkan bahwa terjadi penurunan terhadap pemakaian listrik pada bulan setelah terjadinya intervensi sebagai dampak dari kebijakan pemerintah yang menaikkan tarif dasar listrik (didefinisikan sebagai intervensi).Kata kunci: Analisis intervensi, fungsi step, ARIMA, time series This research is an implementation research about intervention analysis that modelling time series data effected by the existence of an event or intervention. This research aimed to determine the model of intervention of  the step function with time of intervention (T) derived from process of ARIMA preintervensi modelling, identification of response of intervention, intervention parameter estimation and examination diagnosis of intervention model. As for the data that was used in the form of data of the using of electricity (in KWh), the category of households with power of  900 VA, South Southeast West Sulawesi Region  (SULSELRABAR) from January, 2016 to December, 2017 were obtained from PT PLN Persero SULSELRABAR Area Of Makassar. Based on the analysis result obtained that there is derivation towards the using of electricity in the month after the intervention, it shows the impact of government policies that raising the electricity base tarif rate (defined as the intervention).Keywords: Intervention Analysis, Step Function, ARIMA, Time Series.

scholarly journals PEMODELAN RETURN HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INTERVENSI–ARCH/GARCH (Studi Kasus : Return Harga Saham PT Bayan Resources Tbk)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Dea Manuella Widodo ◽  
Sudarno Sudarno ◽  
Abdul Hoyyi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Constant Variance ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

The intervention method is a time series model which could be used to model data with extreme fluctuation whether up or down. Stock price return tend to have extreme fluctuation which is caused by internal or external factors. There are two kinds of intervention function; a step function and a pulse function. A step function is used for a long-term intervention, while a pulse function is used for a short-term intervention. Modelling a time series data needs to satisfy the homoscedasticity assumptions (variance of residual is homogeneous).  In reality, stock price return has a high volatility, in other words it has a non-constant variance of residuals (heteroscedasticity). ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) or GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) can be used to model data with heteroscedasticity. The data used is stock price return from August 2008 until September 2018. From the stock price return data plot is found an extreme fluctuation in September 2017 (T=110) that is suspected as a pulse function. The best model uses the intervention pulse function is ARMA([1,4],0) (b=0, s=1, r=1). The intervention model has a non-constant variance or there is an ARCH effect. The best variance model obtained is ARMA([1,4],0)(b=0, s=1, r=1)–GARCH(1,1) with the AIC value is -205,75088. Keywords: Stock Return, Intervention, Heteroscedasticity, ARCH/GARCH 

scholarly journals A Predictive Meta Model for Forecasting Stock Price using Time Series Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 345-356
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Meta Model ◽  
Price Range ◽  
Stock Traders ◽  
The Right

Stock market prediction through time series is a challenging as well as an interesting research areafor the finance domain, through which stock traders and investors can find the right time to buy/sell stocks. However, various algorithms have been developed based on the statistical approach to forecast the time series for stock data, but due to the volatile nature and different price ranges of the stock price one particular algorithm is not enough to visualize the prediction. This study aims to propose a model that will choose the preeminent algorithm for that particular company’s stock that can forecastthe time series with minimal error. This model can assist a trader/investor with or without expertise in the stock market to achieve profitable investments. We have used the Stock data from Stock Exchange Bangladesh, which covers 300+ companies to train and test our system. We have classified those companies based on the stock price range and then applied our model to identify which algorithm suites most for a particular range of stock price. Comparative forecasting results of all algorithms in diverse price ranges have been presented to show the usefulness of this Predictive Meta Model

scholarly journals PENGARUH ZIS (ZAKAT, INFAK, SEDEKAH) DAN ZAKAT FITRAH TERHADAP PENURUNAN KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998 - 2010

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Jumadin Lapopo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Independent Variables

<p>Poverty is being a problem in all developing countries including Indonesia. Among goverment programs, poverty has become the center offattention in policy at both of the regional and national levels. Looking at thephenomenon of poverty, Islam present with solution to reduce poverty through Zakat. This study aims to analyze the effect of ZIS and Zakat Fitrah against poverty in Indonesia in 1998 until 2010, data used in this study is secondary data and uses time series data, for the dependent variabel is poverty and for independent variables are ZIS and Zakat Fitrah. The analysis tools used in this study is to use multiple regression analysis model and the assumptions of classical test using the software Eviews-4. In this study also concluded that the ZIS variables significantly affect to the reduction of poverty in Indonesia although the effect is very small. In the variable Zakat Fitrah not significantly affect poverty reduction in Indonesia because of the nature of Zakat Fitrah is for consumption and not for long-term needs. The results of this study can be used for the management of zakat to be able to develop the management and to get a better system for distribution of zakat so that the main purpose of zakat can be achieved to reduce poverty.<br />Keywords : Poverty, Zakat Fitrah, ZIS.</p>

News Article Based Industry Risk Index Prediction for Industry-Specific Evaluation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungwon Kim ◽  
Kyoungro Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
News Article ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Specific Interest ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Long Time

The existing industry evaluation method utilizes the method of collecting the structured information such as the financial information of the companies included in the relevant industry and deriving the industrial evaluation index through the statistical analysis model. This method takes a long time to calculate the structured data and cause the time delay problem. In this paper, to solve this time delay problem, we derive monthly industry-specific interest and likability as a time series data type, which is a new industry evaluation indicator based on unstructured data. In addition, we propose a method to predict the industrial risk index, which is used as an important factor in industrial evaluation, based on derived industry-specific interest and likability time series data.

scholarly journals Deep Learning Methods In Predicting Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arief Fadhlurrahman Rasyid ◽  
Dewi Agushinta R. ◽  
Dharma Tintri Ediraras
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Stock Price Index

The stock price changes at any time within seconds. The stock price is a time series data. Thus, it is necessary to have the best analysis model in predicting the stock price to make decisions to avoid losses in investing. In this research, the method used two models Deep Learning namely Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) in predicting Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). The dataset used is historical data from the Jakarta Composite Index (^JKSE) stock price in 2013-2020 obtained through Yahoo Finance. The results suggest that Deep learning methods with LSTM and GRU models can predict Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). Based on the test results obtained RMSE value of 71.28959454502723 with an accuracy rate of 92.39% for LSTM models and obtained RMSE value of 70.61870739073838 with an accuracy rate of 96.77% on GRU models.

scholarly journals Implementation of Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units on Grouped Time-Series Data to Predict Stock Prices Accurately

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin Lawi ◽  
Hendra Mesra ◽  
Supri Amir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract Stocks are an attractive investment option since they can generate large profits compared to other businesses. The movement of stock price patterns on the stock market is very dynamic; thus it requires accurate data modeling to forecast stock prices with a low error rate. Forecasting models using Deep Learning are believed to be able to accurately predict stock price movements using time-series data, especially the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithms. However, several previous implementation studies have not been able to obtain convincing accuracy results. This paper proposes the implementation of the forecasting method by classifying the movement of time-series data on company stock prices into three groups using LSTM and GRU. The accuracy of the built model is evaluated using loss functions of Rooted Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the performance evaluation of both architectures is accurate in which GRU is always superior to LSTM. The highest validation for GRU was 98.73% (RMSE) and 98.54% (MAPE), while the LSTM validation was 98.26% (RMSE) and 97.71% (MAPE).

scholarly journals A forecasting of stock trading price using time series information based on big data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 2548
Author(s):  
Soo-Tai Nam ◽  
Chan-Yong Jin ◽  
Seong-Yoon Shin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Euclidean Distance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Management Tools

Big data is a large set of structured or unstructured data that can collect, store, manage, and analyze data with existing database management tools. And it means the technique of extracting value from these data and interpreting the results. Big data has three characteristics: The size of existing data and other data (volume), the speed of data generation (velocity), and the variety of information forms (variety). The time series data are obtained by collecting and recording the data generated in accordance with the flow of time. If the analysis of these time series data, found the characteristics of the data implies that feature helps to understand and analyze time series data. The concept of distance is the simplest and the most obvious in dealing with the similarities between objects. The commonly used and widely known method for measuring distance is the Euclidean distance. This study is the result of analyzing the similarity of stock price flow using 793,800 closing prices of 1,323 companies in Korea. Visual studio and Excel presented calculate the Euclidean distance using an analysis tool. We selected “000100” as a target domestic company and prepared for big data analysis. As a result of the analysis, the shortest Euclidean distance is the code “143860” company, and the calculated value is “11.147”. Therefore, based on the results of the analysis, the limitations of the study and theoretical implications are suggested.

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