scholarly journals Characteristics, Effective Reproduction Number (Rt), and Spatial Modelling of Covid-19 Spread at Magetan District, East Java, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudhi Wibowo ◽  
Nendyah Roestijawati ◽  
Atik C. Hidajah ◽  
Agoes Y. Purnomo ◽  
Tutiek Herlina
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Spatial Modelling

NUMERICAL AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF SVIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH STANDARD INCIDENCE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwatayo Michael Ogunmiloro ◽  
Fatima Ohunene Abedo ◽  
Hammed Kareem
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Equilibrium Solutions ◽  
Transform Method ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Differential Transform ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Fourth Order Method ◽  
Theoretical Results

In this article, a Susceptible – Vaccinated – Infected – Recovered (SVIR) model is formulated and analysed using comprehensive mathematical techniques. The vaccination class is primarily considered as means of controlling the disease spread. The basic reproduction number (Ro) of the model is obtained, where it was shown that if Ro<1, at the model equilibrium solutions when infection is present and absent, the infection- free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable. Also, if Ro>1, the endemic equilibrium solution is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, the analytical solution of the model was carried out using the Differential Transform Method (DTM) and Runge - Kutta fourth-order method. Numerical simulations were carried out to validate the theoretical results. 

Global Antibiotic Consumption in Humans, 2000 to 2018: A Spatial Modelling Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annie J. Browne ◽  
Michael G. Chipeta ◽  
Georgina Haines-Woodhouse ◽  
Emmanuelle P. A. Kumaran ◽  
Bahar H. Kashef Hamadani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Antibiotic Consumption ◽  
Modelling Study

An Updated Review on COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Ahmed Ebada ◽  
Ahmed Wadaa Allah ◽  
Eshak Bahbah ◽  
Ahmed Negida
Keyword(s):  
Screening Tool ◽  
Distress Syndrome ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Viral Structure ◽  
Discharge Criteria ◽  
Serology Testing

: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than seven million individuals in 213 countries worldwide with a basic reproduction number ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 and an estimated case fatality rate ranging from 2% to 7%. A substantial proportion of COVID-19 patients are asymptomatic; however, symptomatic cases might present with fever, cough, and dyspnoea or severe symptoms up to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Currently, RNA RT-PCR is the screening tool, while bilateral chest CT is the confirmatory clinical diagnostic test. Several drugs have been repurposed to treat COVID-19, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin, lopinavir/ritonavir combination, remdesivir, favipiravir, tocilizumab, and EIDD-1931. Recently, Remdesivir gained FDA emergency approval based on promising early findings from the interim analysis of 1063 patients. The recently developed serology testing for SARSCoV-2 antibodies opened the door to evaluate the actual burden of the disease and to determine the rate of the population who have been previously infected (or developed immunity). This review article summarizes current data on the COVID-19 pandemic starting from the early outbreak, viral structure and origin, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, discharge criteria, and future research.

COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.

Stability Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation and Numerical Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Fan ◽  
Zhigang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Special Case ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractAn SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration and random fluctuation around the endemic equilibrium is considered. As a special case, a deterministic system discussed by Li et al. will be incorporated into the stochastic version given by us. We carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model, also regarding of the basic reproduction number ℛ

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals District-wise estimation of Basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in India in the initial phase

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratip Shil ◽  
Nitin M. Atre ◽  
Avinash A. Patil ◽  
Babasaheb V. Tandale ◽  
Priya Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Reproduction Number

scholarly journals Fractional SIR-Model for Estimating Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in India

J ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal ◽  
Ankit Sikarwar
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Fundamental Parameters ◽  
Different Order ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this article, a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is constructed to investigate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in various regions of India. The model included the fundamental parameters on which the transmission rate of the infection is dependent, like the population density, contact rate, recovery rate, and intensity of the infection in the respective region. Looking at the great diversity in different geographic locations in India, we determined to calculate the basic reproduction number for all Indian districts based on the COVID-19 data till 7 July 2020. By preparing district-wise spatial distribution maps with the help of ArcGIS 10.2, the model was employed to show the effect of complete lockdown on the transmission rate of the COVID-19 infection in Indian districts. Moreover, with the model's transformation to the fractional ordered dynamical system, we found that the nature of the proposed SIR model is different for the different order of the systems. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done graphically which forecasts the change in the transmission rate of COVID-19 infection with change in different parameters. In the numerical simulation section, oscillations and variations in the model compartments are shown for two different situations, with and without lockdown.

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