The changing of the guard (LIBOR to SOFR) and how both insurers and regulators are responding

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toby A. White
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Interest Rate Swaps ◽  
Specific Alternative ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate ◽  
Country Specific

The London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR), the rate for which banks can borrow short-term from each other, and perhaps the most common floating interest rate benchmark, is going away, and may become obsolete by end of year (EOY) 2021. LIBOR is being replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and by other country-specific alternative risk-free rates abroad. However, SOFR differs in several key respects from LIBOR; for example, LIBOR includes credit risk, is unsecured, is based on expert judgment, and has a full-term structure, whereas SOFR is a risk-free rate, is collateralized, is based on market transactions, and has no term structure. We examine the credit risk and maturity risk adjustments needed to ease the transition, along with fallback provisions for legacy contracts tied to LIBOR. We discuss the ramifications of rate transition to insurance companies, as it relates to their assets, liabilities, and internal processes. We then consider the perspective of both U.S. and global insurance regulators while highlighting specific areas of inquiry. We conclude with an overview of general recommendations for insurers to manage these risks, along with a detailed discussion about whether interest rate swaps tied to LIBOR will continue to be deemed as an effective hedge for accounting and valuation purposes.

scholarly journals Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1022
Author(s):  
Lenka Křivánková ◽  
Silvie Zlatošová
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Safe Level ◽  
Interest Rate Swaps ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Term Structure

According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a) and (EU, 2013b) instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA). Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

Nonlinear consistent valuation of CCP cleared or CSA bilateral trades with initial margins under credit, funding and wrong-way risks

2014 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damiano Brigo ◽  
Andrea Pallavicini
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations ◽  
Relative Size ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Interest Rate Swaps ◽  
First Time

The introduction of Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs) in most derivative transactions will dramatically change the landscape of derivatives pricing, hedging and risk management, and, according to the TABB Group, will lead to an overall liquidity impact of about USD 2 trillions. In this paper, we develop for the first time a comprehensive approach for pricing under CCP clearing, including variation and initial margins, gap credit risk and collateralization, showing concrete examples for interest rate swaps. This framework stems from our 2011 framework on credit, collateral and funding costs in Pallavicini et al. (Pallavicini, A., D. Perini and D. Brigo, 2011, Funding Valuation Adjustment: FVA consistent with CVA, DVA, WWR, Collateral, Netting and Re-hypothecation, arxiv.org, ssrn.com). Mathematically, the inclusion of asymmetric borrowing and lending rates in the hedge of a claim, and a replacement closeout at default, lead to nonlinearities showing up in claim dependent pricing measures, aggregation dependent prices, nonlinear Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs). This still holds in presence of CCPs and CSA. We introduce a modeling approach that allows us to enforce rigorous separation of the interconnected nonlinear risks into different valuation adjustments where the key pricing nonlinearities are confined to a funding costs component that is analyzed through numerical schemes for BSDEs. We present a numerical case study for Interest Rate Swaps that highlights the relative size of the different valuation adjustments and the quantitative role of initial and variation margins, of liquidity bases, of credit risk, of the margin period of risk and of wrong-way risk correlations.

IMPLICATION OF THE KELLY CRITERION FOR MULTI-DIMENSIONAL PROCESSES

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
YINGDONG LV ◽  
BERNHARD K. MEISTER
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
General Setting ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Kelly Criterion ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

In this paper, we study the Kelly criterion in the continuous time framework building on the work of E.O. Thorp and others. The existence of an optimal strategy is proven in a general setting and the corresponding optimal wealth process is found. A simple formula is provided for calculating the optimal portfolio in terms of drift, short term risk-free rate and correlations for a set of generic multi-dimensional diffusion processes satisfying some simple conditions. Properties of the optimal investment strategy are studied. The paper ends with a short discussion of the implications of these ideas for financial markets.

scholarly journals Credit Risk Determinants in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Amin Yusuf Efendi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Spurious Regression

Credit is the main business of the banking industry, therefore, in running the business, the bank is always overshadowed by the credit risk the which can be determined by the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL). The development of technology, finance digital brings the outside could impact on the financial industry both positive and negative. The purpose of this study was to analyze the interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), a dummy finance digitalization policies in the long term and the short term of the non-performing loan (NPL) of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia The analytical method used in this research is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), The Data used in this research is secondary quarterly time series data from the 2008 quarter 1-2017 4. The time series of data are not stationar Often that can cause spurious regression results, the exact models used is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), This models may explain the behavior of short-term and long-term. The results Showed in the short-term variable interest rates significanly to non-performing loans, while in the long-term variable interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP Significantly, non-performing loans. Kredit merupakan bisnis utama dari industri perbankan, oleh karena itu dalam menjalankan bisnisnya, bank selalu dibayangi oleh risiko kredit yang dapat diketahui melalui rasio non-performing loans (NPL). Perkembangan teknologi, menghadirkan digital finance yang membawa dampak luar bisa terhadap industri keuangan baik positif dan negatif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis suku bunga, inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dummy kebijakan digitalisasi keuangan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek terhadap non-performing loan (NPL) bank umum konvensional di Indonesia  Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan dari 2008 kuartal 1 – 2017 kuartal 4. Data runtun waktu sering tidak stationar sehingga bisa menyebabkan hasil regresi palsu (spurious regression), Model yang tepat digunakan adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM), model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek variabel suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non performing loan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel suku bunga, kurs, dan PDB berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non perfoming loan.

Alternative characterization of volatility of short-term interest rate

2018 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850018
Author(s):  
Ramaprasad Bhar ◽  
Damien Lee
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Latent Factor ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Characterization ◽  
Technical Details

Most reported stochastic volatility (SV) model for interest rates only deals with an AR specification for the latent factor process. We show in this paper the technical details for specifying the SV model for interest rates that includes an ARMA structure, a jump component and additional exogenous variables for the latent factor process. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with an application to the US short-term interest rate data. We find that the elasticity parameter of the variance is closer to 0.5, i.e., similar to that of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (1985) model of interest rates. This is quite a contrast to the finding Chan et al. [Chan, KC, GA Karolyi, F Longstaff and A Sanders (1992). The volatility of short-term interest rates: An empirical comparison of alternative models of term structure of interest rates, Journal of Finance, 47, 1209–1227]. who found the elasticity to be close to 1.5.

scholarly journals Bond portfolio's duration and investment term-structure management problem

2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Daobai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
Bond Portfolios ◽  
Interest Rate Model ◽  
The Interest Rate

In the considered bond market, there are N zero-coupon bonds transacted continuously, which will mature at equally spaced dates. A duration of bond portfolios under stochastic interest rate model is introduced, which provides a measurement for the interest rate risk. Then we consider an optimal bond investment term-structure management problem using this duration as a performance index, and with the short-term interest rate process satisfying some stochastic differential equation. Under some technique conditions, an optimal bond portfolio process is obtained.

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