scholarly journals Designing a Framework for Employment-Growth Targeting in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Adetunji Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Growth Outcomes ◽  
Pipe Line

Unemployment in Nigeria has assumed disturbing proportions despite fifteen years of sustained economic growth outcomes between 2000 and 2014. This needs very urgent attention from policy makers since the problem has further resulted in other social vices like: armed robbery, kidnapping, political thuggery, pipe-line vandalisation, and social unrest.Unfortunately, policy makers have approached the deep-rooted problems with only tactical and superficial methods. There has been no serious attempt to target employment based on the economic fundamentals; and, the interdependencies and the interconnectedness of the various sectors and the working of the economy.Using Johansen co-integration, and applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression to time series sectoral economic data of Gross Value Added (GVA), employment, interest rate, wage rate, and inflation rate, collected from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this study constructed a framework that policy makers can use to target growth and employment simultaneously.

scholarly journals Designing a Framework for Employment-Growth Targeting in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Adetunji Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Growth Outcomes ◽  
Pipe Line

Unemployment in Nigeria has assumed disturbing proportions despite fifteen years of sustained economic growth outcomes between 2000 and 2014. This needs very urgent attention from policy makers since the problem has further resulted in other social vices like: armed robbery, kidnapping, political thuggery, pipe-line vandalisation, and social unrest.Unfortunately, policy makers have approached the deep-rooted problems with only tactical and superficial methods. There has been no serious attempt to target employment based on the economic fundamentals; and, the interdependencies and the interconnectedness of the various sectors and the working of the economy.Using Johansen co-integration, and applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression to time series sectoral economic data of Gross Value Added (GVA), employment, interest rate, wage rate, and inflation rate, collected from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this study constructed a framework that policy makers can use to target growth and employment simultaneously.

scholarly journals Job Absorption Capacity of Nigeria’s Mining and Quarrying Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Adetunji Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Job Creation ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Absorption Capacity ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Temporal Relationships

The mining and quarrying sector account for 10.6 per cent of the GDP and 0.2 per cent of employment in 2014, according to the records of the National Bureau of Statistics. Relative to the gross value added of the mining and quarrying sector, its contribution to aggregate employment is small. Meanwhile, unemployment is one of the most pressing macroeconomic problems in Nigeria today. It is against this background that the job absorption capacity of the sector was investigated to facilitate job creation policies in the sector. Time series secondary data covering 1981 to 2014 on the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and sectoral Gross Value Added (GVA) at 2010 constant basic prices, employment, wage rate, inflation rate and interest rate were collected from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Sectoral employment elasticities of growth were measured using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression at α0.05. Mining and quarrying sectoral elasticity of employment was -0.05, but was not significant. However, there were significant inter-sectoral and inter-temporal relationships on which job creation policies may be based.

scholarly journals Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan (1976-2010).

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 853-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sehar Munir ◽  
Adiqa Kausar Kiani
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Vector Error

This study empirically verifies the existence of significant relationship between inflation and trade openness for Pakistan using annual time-series data for the period of 1976 to 2010. The basic objective of this study is to examine the Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan with real agriculture value added, real exchange rate, real gross domestic product, financial market openness, money and quasi money and used trade openness, import openness and export openness ratios separately as explanatory variables with inflation rate as dependent variables. For this purpose, we have used multivariate Johansen (1998) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Approach and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the expected empirical findings shows that there is a significant positive long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which rejects the existence of Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan. JEL classification: B26, E31, P24, P44 Keywords: Trade Openness, Inflation, Unit Root Testing, Multivariate Cointegration Approach, Vector Error Correction Model, Pakistan

Are house prices in the Norwegian capital too high?

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svein Olav Krakstad ◽  
Are Oust
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate whether the homes in the Norwegian capital, Oslo, are overpriced. While house prices in many countries dropped after the financial crisis, those in Norway have continued to increase. Over the past 20 years, real house prices in Oslo have increased by around 7 per cent yearly. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a vector error correction model to estimate the equilibrium between house prices, rents, construction costs and wages to examine whether house prices in Oslo are overpriced. Findings – Long-term relationships between house prices, rents, construction costs and wages are found and used to estimate equilibrium house prices in Oslo. The overpricing in Oslo compared to estimated equilibrium prices is around 35 per cent. Practical implications – Price–rent, price–construction cost and price–income ratios are often used, by practitioners to say something about over- or underpricing in the housing market. We test and find that house prices, rents and construction costs move toward constant ratios in the long run, while wages are found to be weakly exogenous in the system. Originality/value – Our estimate of overpricing gives households, investors and policy-makers a better understanding of the risk associated with owning dwellings.

An Empirical Analysis on Association Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market in the Context of BSE

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 170-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarika Keswani ◽  
Bharti Wadhwa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error

The role of macroeconomic variables cannot be ignored because it plays a very important role in shaping the economy of any country, irrespective of whether it is developing, underdeveloped or developed. The macroeconomic variables were disposable income (DI), government policies (GP), inflation rate (INF), interest rate (IR), exchange rate (ER) and stock price. Monthly data of 10 years were used, that is, from April 2006 to March 2016. Analyses of augmented Dickey–Fuller test, preliminary tests, stability tests, cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM) variance decomposition analysis (VDA) and impulse response have been applied to examine the association between the selected macroeconomic variable and stock returns. All the variables are stationary at 1st difference. The results showed that the residues are normally distributed and that there is no problem of multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The results of the cointegration showed a strong long-term relationship among DI, GP, the inflation rate, the exchange rate and the IR on the stock price in Bombay Stock Exchange of India. Results of vector error correction model revealed that in the short run, there was a negative and significant relationship between inflation rate and stock returns; therefore, it can be implied that an increase in the inflation rate eroded the prospect of positive performance among the Sensex but was not significant. JEL Classification: E, E01

scholarly journals The effect Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
M. O. Ndugbu ◽  
K. C. Otiwu ◽  
L. N. Uzowuru
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the relationship between foreign portfolio investment and economic growth in Nigeria between the periods 1986 to 2017. The study employed the Vector Error Correction model (ECM) and granger causality. Market capitalization, foreign portfolio investment and trade openness were the independent variables while gross domestic product is proxy for economic growth in Nigeria. Findings revealed that of the three study variables, trade openness and market capitalization proved to be significant in promoting economic growth in Nigeria while foreign portfolio investment is negative and insignificant. As such, we recommend that policy makers should endeavour to boost the capital market activities so as to foster capital transactions and subsequently increase economic performance and growth in the nation.

scholarly journals A Note on Relationship between Economic Activity and Stock Market Development: a Case of Euro Area Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 1953-1965
Author(s):  
Veronika Kajurová
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Country Specific

The aim of the paper is to empirically examine if the causal relationship between economic activity and stock market development exists in the selected 11 EA countries. The existence of relationship is investigated with the use of cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality during three sub‑periods between January 1993 and January 2017. The results show that the general conclusion on the relation between activity and stock market development cannot be stated and that country‑specific development should be taken into account when making decisions either from the investors’ or policy makers’ perspective. It also seems that the level of integration plays important role when studying the nature of relationship between variables during different time periods.

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