scholarly journals A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE SARS-COV-2 EPIDEMIC CURVE

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
A. N. Diógenes ◽  
D. G. Tedesco
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Simulated Annealing ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
The Other ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Graphic Depiction ◽  
Fitting Model ◽  
Simple Stochastic Model

An epidemic curve is a graphic depiction of the number of outbreak cases by date of illness onset, ordinarily constructed after the disease outbreak is over. However, a good estimate of the epidemic curve early in an outbreak would be invaluable to health care officials. On the other hand, from the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil seems to not following the Europe, or in particular, Italy or Spain. Even if less tests have been applied, there are less deaths occurring in Brazil than in both cited countries. However, due to the few applied tests, there is no certain planning on the real number of active cases. To estimate the number of future cases, epidemiologists make an educated guess as to how many people might become affected. We have proposed a simple fitting model using a simulated annealing technique, testing it with the South Korea data. We have tested and discussed the uncertainties of the model. We also have analyzed the trends in the confirmed cases using this model for the five most affected countries plus Brazil along several epidemic weeks.

scholarly journals A simple Stochastic model for the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic curve

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alysson Nunes Diogenes ◽  
Daniel Guimaraes Tedesco
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Simulated Annealing ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
The Other ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Graphic Depiction ◽  
Fitting Model ◽  
Simple Stochastic Model

An epidemic curve is a graphic depiction of the number of outbreak cases by date of illness onset, ordinarily constructed after the disease outbreak is over. However, a good estimate of the epidemic curve early in an outbreak would be invaluable to health care officials. On the other hand, from the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil seems to not follow the Europe, or in particular, Italy or Spain. Even if less tests have been applied, there are less deaths occurring in Brazil than in both cited countries. However, since few tests were applied, there is no certain planning on the real number of active cases. To estimate the number of future cases, epidemiologists make an educated guess as to how many people might become affected. We have proposed a simple fitting model using a simulated annealing technique, testing it with the South Korea data. We have tested and discussed the uncertainties of the model. We also have analyzed the trends in the confirmed cases using this model for the five most affected countries plus Brazil along several epidemic weeks.

scholarly journals Credible Claims Reserves: the Benktander Method

2000 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Mack
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
Mean Squared Errors ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Chain Ladder ◽  
Simple Stochastic Model

AbstractA claims reserving method is reviewed which was introduced by Gunnar Benktander in 1976. It is a very intuitive credibility mixture of Bornhuetter/Ferguson and Chain Ladder. In this paper, the mean squared errors of all 3 methods are calculated and compared on the basis of a very simple stochastic model. The Benktander method is found to have almost always a smaller mean squared error than the other two methods and to be almost as precise as an exact Bayesian procedure.

scholarly journals Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control

1998 ◽  
Vol 353 (1371) ◽  
pp. 999-1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Rhodes ◽  
R. P. D. Atkinson ◽  
R. M. Anderson ◽  
D. W. Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Virus Infection ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Field Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Rabies Virus Infection ◽  
Sources Of Infection ◽  
Simple Stochastic Model

Using detailed field study observations of the side–striped jackal ( Canis adustus ) and a simple stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of the virus and host demography, we discuss the epidemiology of rabies virus infection in the jackal population of Zimbabwe. Of the two jackal species in Zimbabwe, the other being the black–backed jackal ( Canis mesomelas ), the bulk of notified rabies cases are in side–striped jackals. Specifically, we show that the side–striped jackal population itself does not seem able to support rabies infection endemically, i.e. without frequent reintroduction from outside sources of infection. We argue that this is probably because the overall average jackal population density is too low to maintain the chain of infection. This study suggests that the disease is regularly introduced to jackals by rabid dogs from populations associated with human settlements. Given the rapidly rising dog population in Zimbabwe, estimates are derived of the future incidence of jackal rabies based on different dog vaccination scenarios.

Health Informatics: Handle with Caution

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (02) ◽  
pp. 79-81
Author(s):  
V. Leroy ◽  
S. Maurice-Tison ◽  
B. Le Blanc ◽  
R. Salamon
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Data Management ◽  
Medical Informatics ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Data Security ◽  
Health Informatics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Inappropriate Use

Abstract:The increased use of computers is a response to the considerable growth in information in all fields of activities. Related to this, in the field of medicine a new component appeared about 40 years ago: Medical Informatics. Its goals are to assist health care professionals in the choice of data to manage and in the choice of applications of such data. These possibilities for data management must be well understood and, related to this, two major dangers must be emphasized. One concerns data security, and the other concerns the processing of these data. This paper discusses these items and warns of the inappropriate use of medical informatics.

Pesquisas sobre Currículos e Culturas: tensões, movimentos e criações

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Patrícia Silva
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Research Group ◽  
Training Programs ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Art Music ◽  
The Other ◽  
Educational Policies ◽  
Cultural Spaces ◽  
Teacher Training Programs ◽  
Do It Yourself

The book Research on Curricula and Cultures: tensions, movements and creations, organized by Marlucy Alves Paraíso and Maria Patrícia Silva, it consists of 17 chapters, one of which is an interesting work by a Canadian scholar who investigates state anti-feminism. The other chapters bring results from 16 researches developed by researchers from the Study and Research Group on Curricula and Cultures (GECC), created and coordinated by Marlucy Alves Paraíso, which has researchers from several Brazilian universities and states. The articles in the book combine the post-critical perspectives used to investigate curricula and cultures in their different nuances, addressing silences, power relations, modes of subjectivation and the movements that prevent their fixity. The book brings research results that discuss the possibilities of creating possibilities at school and in other cultural spaces that also have curricula and develop pedagogies, such as: cyberspace, city, health care programs, teacher training programs, educational policies, etc. In addition, curricula are investigated with emphasis on different practices and aspects: childhood, art, music, dance, gender, sexuality, ethnicity, corporality, politics, with research that also innovates methodologically when operating with openings, experiments, do-it-yourself and compositions in different ways. to research curricula without rigidity, although with the necessary rigor in academic research. O livro reconhece de diferentes modos as possibilidades de conexões entre currículos e culturas, e mostra movimentos capazes de operar transgressões apostando em uma cultura porvir.

scholarly journals On the effect of postponing pregnancy in a Zika transmission model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edy Soewono ◽  
Glenn Lahodny
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Infection Intensity ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Recruitment Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Basic Reproductive Ratio ◽  
Numerical Investigations ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Endemic State

AbstractWe construct a Zika transmission model to investigate the effect of postponing pregnancy on the infection intensity. We perform analytical and numerical investigations for deterministic and stochastic analysis to obtain the basic reproductive ratio, endemic state, probability of disease extinction, and the probability of outbreak. The results indicate that by reducing the pregnancy rate the mosquito-to-human ratio increases, and, consequently, the basic reproductive ratio increases. Simultaneously, the probability of disease extinction decreases, and the probability of disease outbreak increases. On the other hand, the endemic state of infected infants initially increases with the decrease of the pregnancy recruitment rate, up to a certain level, and decreases as the recruitment rate of pregnancy tends to zero. This work highlights that postponing pregnancy that gives the individual temporary protection for unexpected infected newborns may increase the population infectivity.

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