scholarly journals Verification of operational rainfall forecast over eastern India during southwest monsoon season

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-334
Author(s):  
G. C. DEBNATH ◽  
G. K. DAS
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Heidke Skill Score ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast and its verification has a direct impact on various sectors of public interest besides economy of the country. The present study highlights the verification of distribution forecast of synoptic method issued daily for six met subdivisions, comprising of five states of eastern India namely West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha. Three years monsoon season rainfall data from 2011 through 2013 are used for the study area. The distribution-oriented verification is done for different rainfall classes like dry, isolated, scattered, fairly widespread and widespread to understand the usefulness of the synoptic method. Statistics are presented for both combined classes of Percentage Correct (PC) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of the met subdivision wise forecast and PC, POD and CSI for individual classes. It has been observed that among the met subdivision the efficiency of the method is highest in Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) & Sikkim followed by Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.

scholarly journals QPF Model for lower Yamuna catchment, synoptic analogue method

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-40
Author(s):  
MEHFOOZ ALI ◽  
U. P. SINGH ◽  
D. JOARDAR
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
Analogue Model ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ◽  
South West Monsoon ◽  
Heidke Skill Score ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season

The paper formulates a synoptic analogue model for issuing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Lower Yamuna Catchment (LYC) based upon eleven years data (1998-2008) during southwest monsoon season. The results so derived were verified with realized Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) for the corresponding synoptic situation during 2009 southwest monsoon season. The performance of the model was observed Percentage Correct (PC) up to 86 % and for extreme events showed 100% correct with Heidke Skill Score (HSS) value 0.9. The experience during south west monsoon 2009 has shown that Synoptic analogue model can produce 24 hours advance QPF with accuracy and greater skill to facilitate the flood forecasters of Central Water Commission.

scholarly journals DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF CATASTROPHIC FLOOD OVER EASTERN INDIA IN JULY 2017 - A CASE STUDY

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-522
Author(s):  
Sharma R S ◽  
Mandal B K ◽  
Das G K
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Indian States ◽  
South West Monsoon

Floods are very common in eastern India during southwest monsoon season. It brings a lot of misery to the people of this region. Every year eastern Indian states namely West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar witness such types of flood during monsoon period. Major river basins in eastern India are Ganga river basin in Bihar and West Bengal area, Odisha has three river basins namely Mahanadi, Subarnarekha, Brahmani and Baitarani        [Fig. 1(a)]. As majority of tributary rivers of Ganga passing through Bihar and West Bengal; these two states are more prone to massive flood during monsoon season. The abnormal occurrence of rainfall generally causes floods. It occurs when surface runoff exceeds the capacity of natural drainage. The heavy rainfall is frequently occurring event over the area during South-West Monsoon (SWM) every year. The geographical location of the area, orography and its interaction with the basic monsoon flow is considered as one of prime factors of these heavy rainfall activities. Synoptically, the latitudinal oscillation of eastern end of the Monsoon Trough and the synoptic disturbances formed or passing over the eastern India region and / or its neighbourhood that brings moisture laden Easterly or South-Easterly winds over the area are the main causes responsible for heavy rainfall in this area.

scholarly journals On some aspects of southwest monsoon rainfall over Tamilnadu

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-382
Author(s):  
S. K. SUBRAMANIAN ◽  
V. N. THANKAPPAN
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season

The rainfall during southwest monsoon season over Tamilnadu is quite significant from the point of view of water storage in major reservoirs as northeast monsoon rainfall, which is about half of the annual rainfall, is not stable enough due to its large interannual variability. The southwest monsoon rainfall, on the other hand, is more stable. The north-south oriented trough over Tamilnadu and adjoining Bay togetherwith upper air cyclonic circulation/trough in lower tropospheric levels account for three fourths of significant rainfall occurrence during southwest monsoon season. Rainfall during southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon seasons was found to be independent with a small negative correlation of -0.18. This shows that the southwest monsoon rainfall may not be of much use to predict the pattern of northeast monoon rainfall over Tamilnadu.  

scholarly journals Beaching patterns of plastic debris along the Indian Ocean rim

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam van der Mheen ◽  
Erik van Sebille ◽  
Charitha Pattiaratchi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Plastic Material ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Plastic Waste ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season

Abstract. A large percentage of global ocean plastic waste enters the northern hemisphere Indian Ocean (NIO). Despite this, it is unclear what happens to buoyant plastics in the NIO. Because the subtropics in the NIO is blocked by landmass, there is no subtropical gyre and no associated subtropical garbage patch in this region. We therefore hypothesise that plastics "beach" and end up on coastlines along the Indian Ocean rim. In this paper, we determine the influence of beaching plastics by applying different beaching conditions to Lagrangian particle tracking simulation results. Our results show that a large amount of plastic likely ends up on coastlines in the NIO, while some crosses the equator into the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean (SIO). In the NIO, the transport of plastics is dominated by seasonally reversing monsoonal currents, which transport plastics back and forth between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. All buoyant plastic material in this region beaches within a few years in our simulations. Countries bordering the Bay of Bengal are particularly heavily affected by plastics beaching on coastlines. This is a result of both the large sources of plastic waste in the region, as well as ocean dynamics which concentrate plastics in the Bay of Bengal. During the intermonsoon period following the southwest monsoon season (September, October, November), plastics can cross the equator on the eastern side of the NIO basin into the SIO. Plastics that escape from the NIO into the SIO beach on eastern African coastlines and islands in the SIO or enter the subtropical SIO garbage patch.

scholarly journals Intra-seasonal oscfffations of radio refractive index during southwest monsoon over India

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-276
Author(s):  
H. N. SRIVASTAVA ◽  
K. C. SINHARAY ◽  
R. K. MUKHOPADHYAY
Keyword(s):  
Refractive Index ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season ◽  
Seasonal Oscillations ◽  
Refractive Index Data ◽  
Indian Seas ◽  
Variance Explained

The study deals with the spatial and temporal variations of intra-seasonal oscillations in radio refractive index during southwest monsoon season over India and islands over Indian seas. Average daily radio refractive index data from 1 June to 30 September and that of the individual years for the period 1969-1986 were subjected to harmonic analysis to investigate the contributions of various periodicities in monsoon radio refractive index. The inter-annual variability of various intra-seasonal oscillations have been studied for each 5° latitudinal strip from 50 oN to 30° N with the help of variance explained by various frequency modes for different years. Variance explained by 30-60 day and 10-20 day modes were studied in relation to monsoon performance.   The northward and eastward propagation of30.60 day mod~ was noticed. The 10.20 day mode and seasonal mode dominate at latitudinal belts 5°N.10oN and 25°N-30°N respectively. Between 10°N and 25°N, both 30-60 day and 10-20 day modes occur.  

Soil Quality Near Indian Oil Corporation Limited Pol Depot Ahmednagar, Maharashtra, State of India

2019 ◽  
pp. 168-178
Author(s):  
Kanchan P. Rathoure
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Soil Quality ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Soil Types ◽  
Central Position ◽  
The West ◽  
Deccan Plateau ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season ◽  
Godavari Basin

The area in question has diversified relief and amount of rainfall and soil types. It is dry region lies in east, irrigated region in north and tribal-dominant population dominant in the west. Ahmednagar district is situated partly in the upper Godavari basin and partly in the Bhīma basin occupying a somewhat central position in Maharashtra state. The climate of the district is characterized by a hot summer and general dryness throughout the year except during the southwest monsoon season (i.e., June to September). Physiographically the district forms part of Deccan Plateau. Part of Sahayadri hill ranges fall in the district. Here in this chapter, the author has elaborated about soil quality and ground water quality near IOCL Terminal Ahmednagar, Maharashtra, India.

scholarly journals Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements – an application to the southwest monsoon in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 5125-5141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Ravindranath ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
Upmanu Lall ◽  
Paulina Concha Larrauri
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors

Abstract. Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years 2001 to 2013 using the identified predictors and a non-parametric k-nearest neighbors approach. The accuracy of the adaptive forecasts (2001–2013) was judged based on directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit/miss rate and false alarms. Based on these criteria, our forecasts were correct 9 out of 13 times, with two misses and two false alarms. The results of these drought forecasts were compared with precipitation forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). We assert that it is necessary to couple informative water stress indices with an effective forecasting methodology to maximize the utility of such indices, thereby optimizing water management decisions.

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