scholarly journals Has the Accession of Croatia to the EU Affected Business Sentiment in Industry? Synthetic Control Method Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-663
Author(s):  
Tihana Škrinjarić ◽  
Mirjana Čižmešija
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Some economic and political events determine the level and dynamics of real economic variables on one hand, and business sentiment as a "soft" variable with a good predictive power for those variables, on the other. In this paper, we observe the impact Croatia's accession to the European Union (EU) in 2013 had on the Industrial confidence indicator (ICI) as a measure of business sentiment in Croatia's industry. Entering the EU had a strong positive impact on the economies of countries that had joined the Union. Unlike other new EU member states, which entered the EU in an upward phase of the European business cycle, Croatia entered this community immediately after the stabilization of the European debt crisis and in a long period of recession. Using a novel application of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to the business survey (BS) data, the main hypothesis, that Croatia's accession to the EU had a strong positive impact on the ICI (which can be explained as euphoria), is confirmed. Conclusions derived from this research are a contribution to the improvement and popularization of BS and SCM.

scholarly journals Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (55) ◽  
pp. 126-143
Author(s):  
Jan Hagemejer ◽  
Jan J. Michałek ◽  
Pavel Svatko
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Economic Institutions ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
New Member States ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The paper analyses the economic implications of the accession of New Member States (NMS) to the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007. The estimation effects of integration with the EU were carried out as a comparative case study using the synthetic control method (SCM) proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal. Compared to previous studies analysing the effects of accession to the EU (Campos, Coricelli and Moretti), we check for the importance of the quality of economic institutions for the matching process of the analysed economies with their comparators. The results of the econometric analysis show a positive impact on the country performance 6 years and 12 years after accession to the EU. The gains from accession are large but not universal. For 5 of the 10 analysed countries the difference in levels of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) against the counterfactual is at least 30%.

Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2631309X2110178
Author(s):  
Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar ◽  
Bryant Jackson-Green
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Legal Judgments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption

In 2014, the most prominent anti-corruption investigation in Latin America called Lava Jato, exposed a Brazilian corruption scheme with reverberations in 61 countries, resulting in legal judgments for nearly 5 billion USD in reimbursements thus far. This article applies the synthetic control method on data from 135 countries (2002–2018) to test the hypothesis that Lava Jato impacts the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. The findings reveal that Lava Jato negatively affects control of corruption, the rule of law, and regulatory quality. There are signs of possible improvement in at least the corruption and the rule of law measures. This paper brings value to the criminological body of literature, notably lacking in the Global South.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
T. S. Sokira ◽  
Z. T. Myshbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weighted Combination

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

scholarly journals FDI determinants in Europe and Chinese influence

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Alena Dorakh
Keyword(s):  
Trade Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Vertical Fdi ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Despite recent concerns about the increasing influence of outside investors on the European Union (EU) and Western Balkans, the developed European countries are still a dominant source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region, confirming the benefits of EU membership. At the same time, fast-growing connectivity and lower trade costs in accession and neighboring countries determine the FDI growth from China, particularly via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By applying panel data over 2000-2019 for 34 countries, which form 89% of all European FDI, we first examine FDI patterns around Europe, compare the EU, NMS, and Western Balkans; verify the importance of EU membership for FDI, caused reducing trade costs and improving connectivity. Thus, the new EU member states (NMS) and Western Balkans appear both as a home country and as a pre- entry destination to the EU. Then, we calculate trade costs indices for each selected country and partners over time and find that Europe and China are closely interconnected through trade and FDI. It means that stronger ties with China can be realized for the sample countries at the cost of easing relations with the EU. Finally, incorporating trade costs indices into the FDI model; we evaluate the impact of connectivity on FDI and estimate how BRI affected FDI in Europe. Additionally, we validate that the old framework of horizontal and vertical FDI not representative well and even new complex vertical or export-oriented FDI strategies are shifting today.

A complementary product of a nearby ski lift company

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662096832
Author(s):  
Hannes Wallimann
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Pricing Strategy ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Winter Sports ◽  
Value Network ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overnight Stays

The availability of attractive complementary products offered by a nearby company positively affects other companies in the value network of a winter sports destination. We aim to illustrate empirically the positive effects of the campaign of a local ski lift company in Switzerland on other companies in the same value network. For the first time in tourism research, the synthetic control method is used to investigate the impact of a new pricing strategy. In this case, the company’s practice of radically discounting the prices of its seasonal lift passes had a positive impact on accommodation businesses in the same winter sports destination. The impact amounts to about 35% additional overnight stays by domestic tourists per winter season that is a seasonal increase of 32,000 overnight stays. However, the ski lift company concluded that the campaign had been unsuccessful. We therefore discuss the difficulties of such a new pricing strategy and emphasize the importance of cooperation between independent companies in the wider destination area.

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