Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia

We examine what determines the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia, focusing on the role of institutional measures. A knowledge-and-physical-capital (KPC) model is applied to a panel dataset that covers 42 of Indonesia’s FDI partners from 2004 to 2012. Evidence shows that both horizontal and vertical FDIs coexist in the bilateral aggregate data of Indonesia’s FDI flows, but horizontal FDI appears to be dominant. This can be explained by the market size (proxied by the total GDP of both countries and similarity in incomes per capita) and the relative factor endowments (proxied by skilled labor and physical capital). The vertical FDI, on the other hand, could be only explained by the significant effect of unskilled labor. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, are apparently important in affecting Indonesia’s bilateral FDI flows. The results also show that a higher FDI level in Indonesia positively correlates with macroeconomic factors, open policy factors, and utility infrastructure factors.

FDI determinants in Europe and Chinese influence

Despite recent concerns about the increasing influence of outside investors on the European Union (EU) and Western Balkans, the developed European countries are still a dominant source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region, confirming the benefits of EU membership. At the same time, fast-growing connectivity and lower trade costs in accession and neighboring countries determine the FDI growth from China, particularly via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By applying panel data over 2000-2019 for 34 countries, which form 89% of all European FDI, we first examine FDI patterns around Europe, compare the EU, NMS, and Western Balkans; verify the importance of EU membership for FDI, caused reducing trade costs and improving connectivity. Thus, the new EU member states (NMS) and Western Balkans appear both as a home country and as a pre- entry destination to the EU. Then, we calculate trade costs indices for each selected country and partners over time and find that Europe and China are closely interconnected through trade and FDI. It means that stronger ties with China can be realized for the sample countries at the cost of easing relations with the EU. Finally, incorporating trade costs indices into the FDI model; we evaluate the impact of connectivity on FDI and estimate how BRI affected FDI in Europe. Additionally, we validate that the old framework of horizontal and vertical FDI not representative well and even new complex vertical or export-oriented FDI strategies are shifting today.

Globalization and wartime trade

This article argues that on balance globalization does not increase, and may even reduce, the opportunity cost of Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs), as measured by foregone merchandise trade. Specifically, globalization makes it easier for states to substitute trade partners, makes it difficult to employ trade sanctions, makes credit more available to states at conflict, and encourages trade-substituting horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and sanctions-resilient vertical FDI. Hypotheses are supported using High Dimensional Fixed Effects regression, applied to a Gravity model, with two-way clustering of standard errors, and an analysis of the effect of globalization on the marginal effect of MIDs on international trade. This suggests that while wars are becoming infrequent in recent decades, due to other factors, trade’s contribution to peace is diminishing.

DAMPAK FDI VERTIKAL DAN HORIZONTAL TERHADAP NILAI TAMBAH 18 SUB SEKTOR INDUSTRI MAKANAN DOMESTIK

Abstrak Untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, Indonesia membutuhkan investasi asing langsung/Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) karena tingkat tabungan di Indonesia jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan kebutuhan investasi. FDI diyakini dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah suatu sektor atau industri. FDI terdiri dari dua jenis, yaitu FDI horizontal (intra industri) dan FDI vertikal (inter industri – dengan keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak FDI vertikal dan horizontal terhadap nilai tambah di 18 sub sektor industri makanan domestik. Dengan menggunakan metode estimasi fixed effect cross section SUR model dan random effect model, hasil penelitian menunjukkan FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke belakang memberikan dampak paling besar terhadap nilai tambah perusahaan domestik dibandingkan FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke depan dan horizontal. FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke belakang berdampak positif terhadap nilai tambah perusahaan domestik dengan modal rendah dan padat tenaga kerja (padat karya). Oleh karena itu, investasi asing di industri makanan paling hilir, seperti industri minuman tidak beralkohol dan industri makanan lainnya perlu dibuka dengan persyaratan bagi investor asing melakukan kerja sama sub contracting dengan perusahaan domestik di industri makanan hulu. Kata kunci: Industri Makanan Domestik, FDI Horizontal, FDI Vertikal, Keterkaitan ke Belakang, Keterkaitan ke Depan, Nilai Tambah Abstract To boost its economic growth, Indonesia needs Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) since the national savings rate is relatively low compared to the high demand for investments. FDI has been proven to be able to enhance the value-added of a sector or industry. There are 2 types of FDI which are Horizontal FDI (intra-industry) and Vertical FDI (inter industry-with upstream and downstream linkages). This study aimed to analyze the impact of horizontal and vertical FDI on the value added to the 18 subsectors in the domestic food industry. By using the fixed-effect cross-section SUR and random effect model, the results showed that the vertical FDI on downstream linkages gives a more positive effect on value-added than vertical FDI on upstream linkages and horizontal FDI. The vertical FDI on downstream linkages gives a positive impact on local companies with a lower level of capital but higher labor (labor-intensive). Therefore, FDI on downstream linkages (for example other food industry, non-alcoholic beverages, etc) should be opened on conditions that it commits a sub-contracting cooperation with the domestic firms within the food processing industry in upstream sectors. Keywords: Domestic Food Industry, Downstream Linkages, Horizontal FDI, Vertical FDI, Upstream Linkages, Value Added JEL Classification: F21; E22; C23; O33

Selection Effects with Heterogeneous Firms

We characterize how firms select between alternative ways of serving a market. “First-order” selection effects, whether firms enter or not, are extremely robust. “Second-order” ones, how firms serve a market conditional on entry, are much less so: more efficient firms select the entry mode with lower market-access costs if firms’ maximum profits are supermodular in production and market-access costs, but not necessarily otherwise. We derive microfoundations for supermodularity in a range of canonical models. Notable exceptions include horizontal and vertical FDI with “subconvex” demands (i.e., less convex than CES), fixed costs that increase with productivity, and R&D with threshold effects.

Sourcing Strategies of Firms

The purpose of the chapter is to present recent theoretical developments in FDI theories with an emphasis on sourcing strategies of firms. It is stated that economic theory explains the existence of the so called vertical FDI as the result of market failures or transaction costs and incomplete contracts. Firms engage in foreign sourcing due to lower costs or an access to unique resources but that sourcing takes place within firms' boundaries in order to benefit from internalization advantages. Although recent theories have been developed in the context of FDI from developed countries, those new insights can be easily applied to the case of outward FDI from emerging economies as well.