scholarly journals Assessment of a Parametric Hurricane Surface Wind Model for Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

10.5772/51288 ◽  
2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelin Hu ◽  
Qin Chen ◽  
Patrick Fitzpatrick
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Model

Intensification of Tilted Tropical Cyclones Over Relatively Cool and Warm Oceans in Idealized Numerical Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Schecter
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Complete Alignment

Abstract A cloud resolving model is used to examine the intensification of tilted tropical cyclones from depression to hurricane strength over relatively cool and warm oceans under idealized conditions where environmental vertical wind shear has become minimal. Variation of the SST does not substantially change the time-averaged relationship between tilt and the radial length scale of the inner core, or between tilt and the azimuthal distribution of precipitation during the hurricane formation period (HFP). By contrast, for systems having similar structural parameters, the HFP lengthens superlinearly in association with a decline of the precipitation rate as the SST decreases from 30 to 26 °C. In many simulations, hurricane formation progresses from a phase of slow or neutral intensification to fast spinup. The transition to fast spinup occurs after the magnitudes of tilt and convective asymmetry drop below certain SST-dependent levels following an alignment process explained in an earlier paper. For reasons examined herein, the alignment coincides with enhancements of lower–middle tropospheric relative humidity and lower tropospheric CAPE inward of the radius of maximum surface wind speed rm. Such moist-thermodynamic modifications appear to facilitate initiation of the faster mode of intensification, which involves contraction of rm and the characteristic radius of deep convection. The mean transitional values of the tilt magnitude and lower–middle tropospheric relative humidity for SSTs of 28-30 °C are respectively higher and lower than their counterparts at 26 °C. Greater magnitudes of the surface enthalpy flux and core deep-layer CAPE found at the higher SSTs plausibly compensate for less complete alignment and core humidification at the transition time.

scholarly journals The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Update and New Capabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 905-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy L. Olander ◽  
Christopher S. Velden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Performance Characteristics ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Algorithm Development ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Development Team ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Estimation Scheme

Abstract The advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) is used operationally by tropical cyclone forecast centers worldwide to help estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) from operational geostationary meteorological satellites. New enhancements to the objective ADT have been implemented by the algorithm development team to further expand its capabilities and precision. The advancements include the following: 1) finer tuning to aircraft-based TC intensity estimates in an expanded development sample, 2) the incorporation of satellite-based microwave information into the intensity estimation scheme, 3) more sophisticated automated TC center-fixing routines, 4) adjustments to the intensity estimates for subtropical systems and TCs undergoing extratropical transition, and 5) addition of a surface wind radii estimation routine. The goals of these upgrades and others are to provide TC analysts/forecasters with an expanded objective guidance tool to more accurately estimate the intensity of TCs and those storms forming from, or converting into, hybrid/nontropical systems. The 2018 TC season is used to illustrate the performance characteristics of the upgraded ADT.

Diurnal and Seasonal Lightning Variability over the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Mexico

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (7) ◽  
pp. 2657-2665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina S. Virts ◽  
John M. Wallace ◽  
Michael L. Hutchins ◽  
Robert H. Holzworth
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Early Evening

Recent observations from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) reveal a pronounced lightning maximum over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that exhibits distinct diurnal and seasonal variability. Lightning is most frequent during summer (June–August). During afternoon and early evening, lightning is enhanced just onshore of the coast of the southeastern United States because of daytime heating of the land surface and the resulting sea-breeze circulations and convection. Near-surface wind observations from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite indicate divergence over the Gulf of Mexico and portions of the Gulf Stream at 1800 LT, at which time lightning activity is suppressed there. Lightning frequency exhibits a broad maximum over the Gulf Stream from evening through noon of the following day, and QuikSCAT wind observations at 0600 LT indicate low-level winds blowing away from the continent and converging over the Gulf Stream. Over the northern Gulf of Mexico, lightning is most frequent from around sunrise through late morning. During winter, lightning exhibits a weak diurnal cycle over the Gulf Stream, with most frequent lightning during the evening. Precipitation rates from a 3-hourly gridded dataset that incorporates observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), as well as other satellites, exhibit a diurnal cycle over the Gulf Stream that lags the lightning diurnal cycle by several hours.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhigang Yao ◽  
Zuo Xue ◽  
Ruoying He ◽  
Xianwen Bao ◽  
Jun Song
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Caribbean Sea ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Wind

scholarly journals Climatology of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures in Tropical Cyclones and their Relations to Storm Intensities as Seen by FY-3B/MWRI

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Bo Qian ◽  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Ying Wu
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Radial Distance ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Dependent Samples

A new database, the tropical cyclones passive microwave brightness temperature (TCsBT) database including 6273 overpasses of 503 tropical cyclones (TC) was established from 6-year (2011–2016) Fengyun-3B (FY-3B) Microwave Radiation Imager (MWRI) Level-1 brightness temperature (TB) data and TC best-track data. An algorithm to estimate the TC intensity is developed using MWRI TB’s from the database. The relationship between microwave TB and the maximum sustained surface wind (Vmax) of TCs is derived from the TCsBT database. A high correlation coefficient between MWRI channel TB and Vmax is found at the radial distance 50–100 km near the TC inner core. Brightness temperatures at 10.65, 18.70, 23.8, and 36.5 GHz increase but 89 GHz TB’s and polarization corrected TB at 36.5 GHz (PCT36.50) and PCT89 decrease with increasing TC intensity. The TCsBT database is further separated into the 5063 dependent samples (2010–2015) for the development of the TC intensity estimation algorithm and 1210 independent samples (2016) for algorithm verification. The stepwise regression method is used to select the optimal combination of storm intensity estimation variables from 12 candidate variables and four parameters (10.65h, 23.80v, 89.00v and PCT36.50) were selected for multiple regression models development. Among the four predictors, PCT36.50 contributes the most in estimating TC intensity. In addition, the errors are lower for estimating 6-h and 12-h future Vmax than estimating the current Vmax.

scholarly journals A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Part II: An Analytic Method for Determining the Time Variation of the Intensity of a Tropical Cyclone*

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
France Lajoie ◽  
Kevin Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Time Variation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ground Truth Data ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Central Surface

Abstract The observed features discussed in Part I of this paper, regarding the intensification and dissipation of Tropical Cyclone Kathy, have been integrated in a simple mathematical model that can produce a reliable 15–30-h forecast of (i) the central surface pressure of a tropical cyclone, (ii) the sustained maximum surface wind and gust around the cyclone, (iii) the radial distribution of the sustained mean surface wind along different directions, and (iv) the time variation of the three intensity parameters previously mentioned. For three tropical cyclones in the Australian region that have some reliable ground truth data, the computed central surface pressure, the predicted maximum mean surface wind, and maximum gust were, respectively, within ±3 hPa and ±2 m s−1 of the observations. Since the model is only based on the circulation in the boundary layer and on the variation of the cloud structure in and around the cyclone, its accuracy strongly suggests that (i) the maximum wind is partly dependent on the large-scale environmental circulation within the boundary layer and partly on the size of the radius of maximum wind and (ii) that all factors that contribute one way or another to the intensity of a tropical cyclone act together to control the size of the eye radius and the central surface pressure.

scholarly journals Prediction of Sea Surface Wind Distribution with a Three Dimensional Wind Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 131-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi ARAKAWA ◽  
Yasutsugu KANDA ◽  
Takeshi ISHIHARA
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wind ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Sea Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Distribution

scholarly journals Satellite Microwave Surface Observations in Tropical Cyclones

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (2) ◽  
pp. 421-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Quilfen ◽  
Bertrand Chapron ◽  
Jean Tournadre
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Microwave Measurements ◽  
Dual Frequency

Abstract Sea surface estimates of local winds, waves, and rain-rate conditions are crucial to complement infrared/visible satellite images in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones (TCs). Satellite measurements at microwave frequencies are thus key elements of present and future observing systems. Available for more than 20 years, passive microwave measurements are very valuable but still suffer from insufficient resolution and poor wind vector retrievals in the rainy conditions encountered in and around tropical cyclones. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar active microwave measurements performed at the C and Ku band on board the European Remote Sensing (ERS), the Meteorological Operational (MetOp), the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the Environmental Satellite (Envisat), and RadarSat satellites can also be used to map the surface wind field in storms. Their accuracy is limited in the case of heavy rain and possible saturation of the microwave signals is reported. Altimeter dual-frequency measurements have also been shown to provide along-track information related to surface wind speed, wave height, and vertically integrated rain rate at about 6-km resolution. Although limited for operational use by their dimensional sampling, the dual-frequency capability makes altimeters a unique satellite-borne sensor to perform measurements of key surface parameters in a consistent way. To illustrate this capability two Jason-1 altimeter passes over Hurricanes Isabel and Wilma are examined. The area of maximum TC intensity, as described by the National Hurricane Center and by the altimeter, is compared for these two cases. Altimeter surface wind speed and rainfall-rate observations are further compared with measurements performed by other remote sensors, namely, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission instruments and the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.

scholarly journals The use of reflected GPS signals to retrieve ocean surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones

Radio Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Katzberg ◽  
Jason Dunion ◽  
George G. Ganoe
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Ocean Surface Wind

scholarly journals A Simple Empirical Model for Estimating the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones after Landfall along the South China Coast

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 326-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin L. M. Wong ◽  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Wen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Exponential Decay ◽  
South China ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Decay Rates ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
The South ◽  
South China Coast ◽  
China Coast

Abstract The intensity change of past (1976–2005) tropical cyclones that made landfall along the south China coast (110.5°–117.5°E) is examined in this study using the best-track data from the Hong Kong Observatory. The change in the central pressure deficit (environmental pressure minus central pressure) and maximum surface wind after landfall are found to fit fairly well with an exponential decay model. Of the various potential predictors, the landfall intensity, landward speed, and excess of 850-hPa moist static energy have significant influence on the decay rates. Prediction equations for the exponential decay constants are developed based on these predictors.

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