scholarly journals The Connection between the Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments Accounts in the Czech Republic: An Econometric Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-71
Author(s):  
Tomáš Urbanovský
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
The Current Account

Relationships between the nominal exchange rate, the current account and the financial account of the balance of payments in the Czech Republic are investigated in this presented paper. The implemented cointegration analysis and vector error correction model suggest one pair of Granger causality. It has been discovered that change in the current account balance Granger-causes a change in financial account balance. This relationship has the nature of two-way Granger causality, which means that a reversed relationship holds as well. Other relationships implying Granger causality were not found. Error terms were significant only in regressions with both accounts as dependent variables, which imply that only these variables return to their long-term equilibria. Because an increase in financial account surplus leads to a decrease in current account surplus (or deepening the current account deficit), excessive liberalization of the Czech financial system can lead to a large capital inflow, jeopardizes current account sustainability and results in a currency crisis in the Czech economy.

What Explains Current Account Surplus in Korea?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Tyshchenko ◽  
Olena Tyshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
The State ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Positive Balance ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Current Account

The article highlights the features of the formation and assessment of the balance of payments in Ukraine. The balance of payments of Ukraine is a functional macroeconomic model that reflects all transactions that are carried out between the subjects of the national economy and the subjects of the economies of other countries of the world. This model allows you to develop and implement a sound foreign economic policy of Ukraine, analyze the state of commodity and financial markets, conduct scientific research of economic processes in the state, etc. Ukraine is actively implementing the methodology of balance of payments formation according to the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine's balance of payments by main components is grouped into two accounts: "capital and financial transactions" and "current transactions": capital transactions cover all transactions related to the receipt or payment of capital transfers and the acquisition or sale of property rights and non-financial assets; current transactions include all transactions between residents and non-residents on real values, as well as transactions on the free provision or receipt of valuables for current use. Like any other "balance of payments" consists of receipts and payments. It is active (surplus) when revenues are greater than payments and passive (deficit) when payments are greater than revenues. Based on the assessment of the balance of payments of Ukraine for 2020, certain conclusions can be drawn: stable external demand for food softened the drop in exports of goods from Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increase in prices contributed to its growth at the end of 2020; despite a slight recovery in domestic demand in the IV quarters of 2020, imports of goods to Ukraine by the results of 2020 decreased significantly; the current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 was provided by a significant positive balance of trade in services and a record surplus of the primary income account; capital outflow from Ukraine on the financial account stopped at the end of 2020 due to the optimism of investors; despite the crisis and significant payments on external debt, Ukraine's gross reserves increased in 2020, and the financial crisis once again confirmed the importance of both international support and a balanced macroeconomic policy. The current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 reached one of the largest levels in the history of Ukraine, it was formed due to a significant decrease in imports of goods and services, a reduction in payments on primary income and the relative stability of exports of goods and remittances. The article proposes recommendations for improving approaches to the formation of the balance of payments in Ukraine using certain methods when regulating the balance of payments of the state.

scholarly journals Financial Liberalization and Current Account Developments in New EU Member States

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Zdenka Obuljen Zoričić ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
New Eu Member States ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Current Account

AbstractDue to negotiations on accession to the EU, the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe went through the financial opening. In the pre-crisis period followed by high liquidity in global markets, most of the EU new member states experienced rapid credit growth, which conditioned the appreciation of the exchange rate. External imbalances and vulnerabilities built up. Countries experienced deterioration in their current accounts. This paper investigates the link between financial openness, real effective exchange rate, financial crisis and current account balance within the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for 11 new European Union members during the period from 1999 to 2016. The results obtained by the use of pooled mean group estimator (PMG) show that in the long run, financial openness has a significant negative impact on the current account balance. In the short run, crisis significantly influences the current account balance having a positive sign.

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef C. Brada ◽  
Ali M. Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Speculative Attack ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper deals with the exchange rate policy being implemented in combination with the mix of monetary and fiscal measures prior to the speculative attack on the CZK in 1997. The fixed nominal exchange rate may have been retained for too long and the monetary and fiscal policies were inappropriate. It explains the relation between Czech inflation, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies until the crisis of May 1997. <P>While the Czech Republic weathered its currency crisis much better than did most other emerging economies, with the worst damage being a USD 2 billion loss of foreign reserves, the crisis failed to resolve all of the fundamental problems. It gives also some explanations for the persistence of inflation at a level around 10 % until mid-1998.

scholarly journals Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-48
Author(s):  
Željko Bogdan ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Current Account

Abstract In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.

scholarly journals Analysis of Current Account Deficit Determinants of Balance of Payments in Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: A Comparative Study in CFA Franc and Non-Franc Zones

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 447
Author(s):  
Remy Hounsou
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

<p><em>This study compares the impact of certain economic and financial variables on the level of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of the countries of the Franc zone and certain countries of the non-Franc zone situated south of the Sahara. The empirical results of the study based on panel data models covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that none of the two zones behaves better against the current account deficit of the balance of payments and that no zone is more competitive than the other. Finally, it was clear from our analysis that the variables of gross domestic, saving and the change in the terms of trade better explain the change in the current account balance in the Franc zone, whereas the variables of net foreign transfers and gross domestic saving impact the most the current account deficit in non-CFA zone.</em></p>

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