The Impact of Herding on the Risk Pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange

We test the impact of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) by adding an additional risk factor reflecting herding behaviour to the Fama and French three-factor model. We construct a portfolio to mimic an additional risk factor related to herding behaviour, in addition to the original risk factors in the Fama and French three-factor model. The three-factor model will be tested in its original form and re-tested after adding the herding behaviour factor. The study is based on Hwang and Salmon methodology, in which the state space approach based on Kaman’s filter was used to measure herding behaviour. We used monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the EGX from January 2014 to December 2018. The results do not support Fama and French model before and after adding the herding behaviour factor, therefore, there is no effect of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange.

Commonalities in Returns in the Stock Markets of the Visegrad Group: A Quantile Coherency Approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure in the frequency domain for the joint distribution of returns from the stock markets in the countries belonging to the V4 countries. We analyze twenty-years of historical daily prices of four main stock indices from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Using a quantile coherency measure we found, that linkages between Czech, Hungarian, and Polish stock markets are significantly positive for all considered quantiles and frequencies. These three markets are more strongly dependent during the long downturns and the effect is permanent after the European Union accession. The Slovak stock market is the least connected with other countries in the group. Results of the paper revealed, that Czech, Hungarian and Polish stock market is subject to similar trends in terms of returns for different investment horizons. International market participants should incorporate interdependencies between these markets during the portfolio building process.

In Search of the Optimal Saving Strategy for Pan-European Pension Products

The introduction of pan-European pension products in 2020 is associated with an ongoing debate on prescribing predefined saving strategy that would both deliver adequate performance and limit the down-side risk at the end of the saving horizon. Dynamic life-cycle saving strategies are generally accepted as a good risk-mitigation tool that can be individually set. Many research papers confirm the ability of life-cycle strategies to deliver high risk-reward outcomes. Objective of our paper is to test the ability of one-factor life-cycle saving strategies based on the age and/or the remaining saving horizon to deliver the promised value for PEPP savers. We constructed 18 saving strategies divided into three groups – static saving strategies with fixed proportion of equities, dynamic life-cycle strategies based on the age and/or remaining saving horizon, and quasi-active strategies combining two factors – the remaining saving horizon and price movement. We employed the model based on moving-block bootstrapping technique and performed simulations for various economic conditions. We have tested the expected saving performance combined with the down-side risk during the saving horizon. Our findings do not confirm the general findings on life-cycle saving strategies. We claim that having the age as the only factor defining the proportion of equities in the pension saving portfolio would not be optimal. However, we found that two-factor saving strategies look promising in delivering both lower down-side risk and higher performance over the saving horizon.

Empirical Test of Fama and French Three-Factor Model in the Egyptian Stock Exchange

We test the empirical validity of the three-factor model of Fama and French in the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) using monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the EGX from January 2014 to December 2018. Our findings do not support Fama and French three-factor model, where the coefficient of the beta was insignificant. The “SBM” coefficient and the “HML” coefficient were equal to zero and insignificant, which confirms the absence of the small firm effect and book-to-market ratio effect in the market. We conclude that there is no relation between expected return and Fama-French risk factors.

Influence of Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy

The traditional view asserts that there is a positive relationship between the foreign exchange rate and economic growth. So much so that an increase in foreign exchange rates enhances the net export volume and thus positively affects economic growth due to the increasing total demand. However, structural economists argue that there is an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth. Especially in developing countries, the input structure of production depends on imported capital and intermediate goods, so an increase in exchange rates makes import production inputs more expensive and thus negatively affects economic growth. Turkey, leaving foreign exchange rate free float since 2002, has implemented the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime as the monetary policy. Therefore, Turkey has a real experience to analyse the role of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Accordingly, in our study, using the quarterly data between 2002-Q1 and 2019-Q1, the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth was examined by employing Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and Innovation Accounting Techniques. Empirical findings suggest that there is a negative causal relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, as claimed by structuralist economists. In terms of policy implications, it can be argued that, even under the inflation targeting regime in Turkey, both price and exchange rate stability should be provided together.

A Model of Vignette for Motor Vehicles in the Czech Republic

This article examines the fees applied to vehicles of the maximum weight of 3.5 t based on time. It focuses on the analysis of the current application of time-based fees in individual countries of the EU. This analysis is carried out as a supporting tool serving the design models available in the Czech Republic. The goal of the contribution is designing a new model of time-based pricing of road motor vehicles in the territory of the Czech Republic. The contribution also includes the analysis of legal standards regulating the issue in the Czech Republic and in the EU countries; the analysis only deals with EU legal standards that directly address the area. The outcome of the contribution is a constructed model of a time-based fee, based on pre-defined assumptions, which were determined by needs ensuing from the current conditions that affect the operation of chargeable passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. In conclusion, a comparison of receipts from the current system of time-based fees with receipts resulting from the proposed model of time-based fees for the Czech Republic is made. The results shown in Table 6 show that the application of the newly defined time-based fee model in the Czech Republic leads to increased public budget revenues by 3.14%, ie by CZK 149.262 million in absolute terms.

The New Rules of Capital Adequacy Basel III from the Perspective of Leasing Companies in Europe and Czech Republic

Some significant changes to the Basel III regulatory framework (called Basel IV) will come into effect during the 2022 to 2027 period. In its first part, this article shows the opinion of the European Federation of Leasing Company Associations Leaseurope on Basel IV. In its second part, this paper evaluates the situation of the largest leasing companies on the Czech market using methods of financial analysis.The results of several studies published by Leaseurope clearly show that the risk associated with the provision of liabilities through leasing is significantly lower than the risk calculated by the capital adequacy calculation for Basel rules. For this reason, the Leaseurope federation prepared concrete proposals for changes in the rules so that the regulation better corresponds to the actual risks taken.The second part of the article analyzes the situation of leasing companies in the Czech Republic in terms of capital, capital adequacy and compliance with Basel rules. It shows the state of the capital adequacy of the largest leasing companies operating on the Czech market using simplified indicators of the ratio of Equity / Balance sheet total and Equity / Receivables. As a complementary indicator, the ratio of Share capital / Balance sheet total is also used. Furthermore, a simplified stress test based on 5% and 10% decline in net receivables and coverage of this decline from equity, respectively, was performed.The results show that leasing companies operating on the Czech market would probably have no problem meeting the considered tightening of capital requirements. Several exceptions are mentioned in the text.

The Impact of Herding on the Expected Return in the Egyptian Stock Exchange

This paper examines the impact of herding behaviour on the expected return in the Egyptian Stock Exchange by adding an additional risk factor reflecting herding behaviour to the capital asset pricing model. The study used monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange from January 2014 to December 2018. The results do not support the capital asset pricing model before and after adding the herding behaviour factor, therefore there is no effect of herding behaviour on the expected return.

Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Europe: Detection of Extreme Risk Spillover

The goal of this paper is to check existence of Granger causality in risk between eleven European stock markets and crude oil market. We analyze bidirectional instantaneous and delayed Granger causality in tails test results, i.e. whether occurrence of the extreme returns on the crude oil market precede similar events on the main European stock markets and vice versa. Using Brent futures prices and main stock indices in Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom), we apply testing procedure developed by Candelon and Tokpavi (2016). The main conclusion is that in the vast majority of cases instantaneous causality in tails was symmetrical. We also found that more long-lived reaction appeared as a result to the negative news from the oil market and from the stock markets.

Determination and Verification of the Key Assessment Indicators for the Insurance Market by Applying the Decomposition Multi-attribute Methods and Regression Analysis

The aim of the article is to determine and verify the key assessment indicators for the insurance market by applying the decomposition multi-attribute methods and regression analysis. The assessed specific indicators are qualitative indicators (insurance penetration, claim ratio) and quantitative indicators (gross premium, insurance benefit, number of insurance contracts, number of settled insurance claims, number of employees, number of commercial insurance companies, concentration of the insurance market, and more). The decomposition multi-criteria AHP method (analytic hierarchy process) and ANP method (analytic network process) based on the Saaty pair comparison approach are described, including the computation procedure. The described methods are then applied to determine the preferences of the indicators for the insurance market. Subsequently, a particular regression model is created. Our findings reveal the resulting preferences of individual indicators of the insurance market evaluation and key assessment indicators.