How and Why Do Terrorist Campaigns End?

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey Kurth Cronin
Keyword(s):  
Final Phase ◽  
Scholarly Research ◽  
Strategic Framework ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Western Democracies

In order to assess terrorist groups within a broad historical and strategic framework, it is vital to assess how and why terrorist campaigns end. Moreover, if effective counter-terrorism is to be developed, then serious reflection is required regarding what happens during the final phase of terrorist campaigns, and why. This chapter therefore: first, analyses four classic strategies of terrorism and considers why Western democracies have particular difficulty responding to them; second, it reviews six historical patterns of endings for terrorist organisations that have emerged from scholarly research on hundreds of groups; third, it assesses (in light of these six patterns) which counter-terrorism policies have hastened al-Qaida’s demise and which have not, while also reflecting upon the rise of ISIS and its potential future significance.

Blurring the Lines

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-54
Author(s):  
Daniel R. Brunstetter
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Just War ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
The State ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Peace And War ◽  
Clear Line ◽  
Western Democracies

Law enforcement is often seen as the de facto, and relatively pure, alternative to contemporary just war. If we are not at war, then the more restrictive law enforcement is the viable paradigm. This chapter interrogates two assumptions underlying this view. It begins by demystifying the unwritten assumption that the liberal law enforcement paradigm associated with Western democracies is the idealized foil to just war. Using France, whose postcolonial legacy complicates the turn to the Western liberal paradigm as an illuminating case, the chapter explores how domestic warlike violence creates a state of fractured order—the violence and potential for abuses of power that permeate society as the government seeks to balance security and individual rights. The chapter then turns to the transnational context to challenge the view that there exists a clear line between the state of war and the state of peace. Mali serves as a paradigmatic case to illustrate how the effectiveness of law enforcement is curtailed in spaces of contested order where heavily armed terrorist groups challenge the authority of the state, thus prompting a turn to Special Forces and drones to restore order. In both contexts, the chapter identifies a shift away from the restrained norms that typically govern the use of force in law enforcement to more warlike uses of force that blur the lines between peace and war. The chapter concludes with a reflection on how this shift might inform the ethics of limited force, which lies between law enforcement and just war.

India: Counterterrorism in India: An ad hoc response to an enduring and variable threat

2019 ◽  
pp. 152-183
Author(s):  
Rashmi Singh
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Response Characteristic ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Hybrid Threats ◽  
Hearts And Minds

The unprecedented overlap between terrorism and insurgency in India represents a key challenge to formulating an understanding of terrorism and counter-terrorism (CT) in this region. This chapter discusses the emergence and evolution of key terrorist threats in the country to illustrate how terrorism in the subcontinent falls into two distinct categories, i.e. ‘pure terrorism’ as practiced by what are best described as ‘incorrigible terrorist groups’ and ‘hybrid threats’, a complex amalgamation of insurgency and terrorism utilised by what are essentially ‘corrigible’ groups. I then discuss how India’s inability to distinguish between these two very different threats results in what tends towards a lethal, kinetic response characteristic of counter-terrorism even as its language remains within a population-centric ‘hearts and minds’ framework more obviously associated with traditional counter-insurgency (COIN). This tendency to ‘act CT but speak COIN’ is a key reason both India’s CT and COIN strategies remain short-sighted, muddled and under-developed. However, newly emergent threats make it imperative that India urgently recalibrate and reconsider these responses.

Spain in countering terrorism after the 11-М: what followed?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.M. Ponamareva
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Cultural Backgrounds ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Global Ratings

The article reveals the mechanisms of transformation of the counter-terrorism policy in Spain after the tragic events of March 11, 2004 (11-М). Based on the analysis of national regulations, global ratings, reporting documents of the largest Western think tanks, specialized counter-terrorism agencies, materials from foreign and domestic media, the author concludes that there is a shift in the focus of the authorities’ attention from internal ethno-separatism and related threats to the challenges of international terrorism in its Islamist version. Also, a number of the most acute challenges to the security of the population are highlighted, first of all – the joining of Spanish citizens to terrorist groups in the Middle East. The assessment of the threats emanating from the Basque and Catalan separatism is given. It is indicated that Spain, in which not a single terrorist attack has occurred in recent years, quite skillfully copes with the task of countering terrorism, adapting the experience of combating ETA to the challenges of the new time, but the «zone of risk» remains the space of linking radicalization leading to terrorism with unsettled migration, the weakness of the integration practices of immigrants of different cultural backgrounds and the indirect impact of the consequences of regional conflicts, resulting in the emergence of failed and fake states, posing new security threats.

On the Political Economy of Binational Counter-Terrorism

2007 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund H. Mantell
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The Political ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The U.S

This paper applies game theory to explore the economic incentives facing foreign nations sheltering terrorists. The players are a nation that has been a target of international terrorist activities and a nation that is a host (willing or unwilling) of international terrorists. The economics of multinational terrorism involve the costs to host nations of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and others, as well as the economic benefits transferred to the host nations by terrorist groups that they shelter. The main result shows that coalitions between international terrorists and their host nations allow the latter to sell licenses to terrorists thereby frustrating the counter-terrorist activities of victim nations.

scholarly journals Autocrats versus terrorists : what Conditions authoritarian counter-terrorism?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Barbara Elisabeth Alexandra Korte
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
First Case ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Sources Of Variation ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region ◽  
Original Motivation ◽  
Discursive Power

This dissertation explores the breadth and variation of authoritarian counter-terrorism strategies and their legitimacy-related origins to challenge prevailing assumptions in Terrorism Studies. Research and analysis are conducted in the form of a Structured Focused Comparison of domestic counter-terrorism strategies in two electoral autocracies. The first case is Russia’s domestic engagement against a mix of ethno-separatist and Islamist terrorism emanating from its North Caucasus republics between 1999 and 2018. The second case is China’s engagement vis-à-vis a similar type of terrorism in its Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region between 1990 and 2018. The comparison shows that, contrary to prevailing assumptions, the two strategies differ immensely from one another while containing significant if not predominant non-coercive elements. It further shows that the two strategies are closely related to the two states’ sources and resources of legitimacy, both in their original motivation to tackle the terrorist threat and in the design of counter-terrorism strategies. Drawing on David Beetham’s theory of The Legitimation of Power and on the Comparative Politics, Terrorism Studies and Civil War literatures, the dissertation explores the influence of five sources and (re)sources of legitimacy on the two counter-terrorism strategies: responsiveness, performance legitimacy, ideology, discursive power and co-optation. While governmental discursive power is discarded as a source of variation, findings are significant with respect to the influence of ideology and performance legitimacy. Reliance on ideology or related patterns for legitimation raise vulnerability to terrorism and constrain or facilitate the adoption of communicative and preventive measures that accommodate the grievances of potentially defective or even violently terrorist groups. Performance legitimacy is a key motivator in counter-terrorism and an influence on certain types of counter-terrorism policies. Responsiveness and co-optation are identified as potential sources of variation, based on idiosyncratic concurrence with policy choices.

Perpetrators’ strategic communication: Framing and identity building on ethno-nationalist terrorists’ websites

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-171
Author(s):  
Liane Rothenberger ◽  
Yulia An ◽  
Natalia Angulo Mejía ◽  
Arlinda Arizi ◽  
María Martín Villalobos
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Strategic Communication ◽  
Problem Definition ◽  
Responsibility Attribution ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Cluster Analytic ◽  
Alternative Identities ◽  
Case Basis

Abstract The study explores communication strategies of ethno-nationalist terrorists with respect to their framing and identity building. Strategies of eight ethno-nationalist terrorist groups were analyzed using 70 articles published on the groups’ websites. Three cluster-analytic procedures and a correlational analysis were applied to (1) strategies of problem definition, (2) cause and responsibility attribution, (3) treatment recommendations, and (4) identity building. The analysis revealed various dimensions on which terrorists frame their content. No group-specific strategies of framing and identity building have been found yet, suggesting that the strategies were universal across terrorist groups, and they were applied on a case-by-case basis. Knowledge about these strategies should advance counter-terrorism efforts, and assist in development of alternative identities among ethnic groups at risk of conflict.

Conflict Media Strategies and the Politics of Counter-Terrorism

Politics ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shlomo Shpiro
Keyword(s):  
War On Terror ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Media ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Second World ◽  
Over Time

This article argues that the events of 11 September 2001, and the subsequent ‘war on terror’, have highlighted the role of the media in both the coverage and conduct of modern conflict. The article concentrates on the ‘conflict media strategies’ pursued by belligerents and examines the development and refinement of such strategies over time, from the Second World War through to the conflict in Afghanistan. Using data from Vietnam, the Falklands, the Gulf, Kosovo and other conflicts, I argue that an effective conflict media strategy is an essential tool of warfare that is used by states and terrorist groups alike.

scholarly journals Assessing Public Support for Terrorism Over Time

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy Schumann ◽  
Bettina Rottweiler ◽  
Paul Gill
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Over Time

Public support for terrorism reflects people’s sympathy for terrorist groups or tactics; it is influenced by and, in turn, shapes terrorists’ campaigns as well as counter-terrorism measures. To date, long term trends of public opinion about terrorism have been assessed in case studies and through descriptive statistics. Systematic analyses that specify whether and how public support for terrorism has changed over time are not available. We addressed this gap in the literature and conducted time-series analyses of eight waves of data (2004 2011) from the Pew Global Attitudes Survey. Including responses from 15 Muslim majority countries (N =43255), we showed that the percentage of people who believed that suicide terrorism was justified decreased between 2005 and 2007 after which support remained at a lower level (one structural breakpoint). Results also highlighted that depending on how public opinion was operationalised, the same data could inform an opposing narrative about support for terrorism. Notably when analyses were replicated with a mean composite score of the answer options ‘often', 'sometimes‘ and ‘rarely justified’ the percentage of people who thought that terrorism was ‘ever justified’ was reduced in 2005 before increasing again in 2008 (two structural breakpoints). Pre-registration of studies is therefore crucial to avoid selective analyses.

scholarly journals The Coalition for Counter-Terrorism Airstrikes and the Indifference of Some Countries: A Critical Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Abbas Tadayoni ◽  
Azita Partavousi
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Method ◽  
Terrorist Group ◽  
Critical Study ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Present Essay ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Daesh or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), is one of the most intimidating terrorist groups of contemporary world. In addition to many statements, resolutions and meetings, various airstrikes have been organized by different countries to counteract the terrorist group of ISIS. However, the use and success of these airstrikes are open to doubt. Given the significance of having a better understanding of this topic and finding an efficient method to fight and eradicate terrorism, the present essay analyzes the issue in its multifaceted dimensions. More specifically, the essay investigates the role of the coalition for the use of airstrikes and the indifference of some countries to the problem. In doing so, first a definition and brief survey of the concept of terrorism are given. Then, the rise of ISIS and its beliefs are discussed, followed by discussing the role of anti-ISIS coalition and the different meetings in fighting ISIS with an emphasis on the use and efficiency of airstrikes. Finally, a conclusion of the discussion is presented.

18 Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and International Humanitarian Law

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saul Ben
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Criminal Liability ◽  
Fair Trial ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
International Humanitarian Law ◽  
Humanitarian Law ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Forms Of Violence

This concluding chapter addresses the debate about the coverage, adequacy, and effectiveness of international humanitarian law (IHL) in regulating ‘terrorism’. IHL does not recognize any specific legal categories for, or special regime governing, terrorists and terrorist groups. Rather, the general norms of IHL apply to terrorists according to their conduct. IHL was precisely developed as a kind of exceptional or emergency law comprehensively addressing all forms of violence in armed conflict, including that which is labelled ‘terrorist’ in other areas of law. Particularly relevant to terrorism are the general IHL rules on the classification of violence as armed conflict, the categorization of persons during conflict, targeting, detention, criminal liability, and fair trial. Thus, terrorist and counter-terrorist violence may constitute a non-international armed conflict (NIAC) to which IHL applies if the violence is sufficiently intense and organized. The chapter then considers three key legal issues of particular relevance and specificity to terrorism in armed conflict.

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