scholarly journals A cluster analytic examination and validation of adult victim sexual offending subtypes in two Canadian samples

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
John-Etienne Myburgh ◽  
Mark E. Olver
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offending ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Cluster Solution ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Case Formulation ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
High Base ◽  
Cluster Analytic ◽  
Development And Validation

The development and validation of sexual offense perpetrator typologies remains a useful endeavor with implications for theory and correctional/clinical practice. Most such typologies—which rely on factors such as the individual’s motivation for offending—have not been validated empirically. The current study utilized a validated sexual violence risk-needs instrument, the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon [2003, 2017], Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada), to develop and validate an empirically-derived adult victim sexual offense (AVSO) typology through model-based cluster analysis of dynamic risk-need domains. The study featured two treated samples of men (n = 283 and 169) convicted for contact sexual offenses against adult victims. A three-cluster solution was identified and replicated across the two samples: high antisociality high deviance (HA-HD), high antisociality low deviance (HA-LD), and low antisociality low deviance (LA-LD). External validation analyses demonstrated that HA-HD men had more dense sexual offense histories, were more likely to be diagnosed with a paraphilia, and had the highest rates of sexual recidivism (Sample 2 only). By contrast, the HA-LD men had greater concerns on indexes of nonsexual criminality, particularly high base rates of antisocial personality and substance use disorders, and high rates of general violent recidivism (particularly Sample 1). The findings suggest that the VRS-SO factors may have utility in discriminating between AVSO types to inform sexual offending theory, case formulation, and risk management.

A Validation Study of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W. Eke ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
Michael C. Seto
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Development And Validation

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

scholarly journals Development and validation of the Beliefs about Revenge Pornography Questionnaire

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig A. Harper ◽  
Lorraine Smith ◽  
Jessie Leach ◽  
Neil Daruwala ◽  
Dean Fido
Keyword(s):  
Concurrent Validity ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Community Sample ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Rape Myth ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Just World ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Sexual Crime ◽  
Development And Validation

Revenge pornography has become an increasingly prominent topic in social and legislative discussions about sexual crime, but has received relatively little attention within psychological research. Here, we leveraged existing theorizing in the area of sexual offending proclivity to systematically develop and validate of a measure of beliefs about revenge pornography. Using a large international community sample (N = 511) we found our ‘Beliefs about Revenge Pornography Questionnaire (BRPQ)’ to be comprised of three underpinning domains: ‘Victims as Responsible’, ‘Sociological Explanations’, and ‘Revenge Pornography as a Sexual Offense’. Concurrent validity is demonstrated through relationships with trait empathy, belief in a just world, dark personality traits, and rape myth acceptance. Randomly dividing the sample, we also show that the BRPQ predicts both revenge pornography proclivity (n = 227) and social judgements of this type of offending (n = 233). Implications and future directions are discussed.

scholarly journals Dynamic sexual offense risk assessment using the VRS-SO with indeterminate sentenced men

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark E. Olver
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Violence ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Dynamic Assessment ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Assessment And Treatment ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

Indeterminate detention (ID) is a high stakes sanction reserved for exceptionally high risk-high need (HRHN) persons who are deemed to pose an undue risk to public safety. It is one of the most extreme measures that is routinely taken by justice systems to manage sexual violence risk and prevent sexual and violent recidivism. Naturally, risk assessment is most frequently employed as a mechanism to keep dangerous people in custody; but seldom is risk assessment viewed as a possible ticket out for men with an ID designation who have made substantive risk changes and whose risk can be safely managed in the community. This article features applications of a dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), with ID individuals and other HRHN men, to assess risk in a dynamic manner to inform risk management efforts and release decisions. VRS-SO data on an ID sample are presented along with clinical illustrations of dynamic risk assessment. Several propositions are made with supporting data from VRS-SO normative research with treated sexual offending samples regarding the use of dynamic tools with ID men and the perils and pitfalls of relying solely on static measures. Ultimately, dynamic risk instruments can be used to track progress and monitor risk change over multiple assessments to inform release and reintegration decisions with ID persons. In this regard, dynamic assessment has the potential to help, rather than hinder, reintegration of ID sentenced persons and can inform safe, fair, and humane decisions.

Measuring Intent to Aid of Lay Responders: Survey Development and Validation

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 730-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Miller ◽  
Jeffrey L. Pellegrino
Keyword(s):  
Sudden Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Affective Domain ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
American Red Cross ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Expert Review ◽  
The Social ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Intent To Use ◽  
Development And Validation

Background. Increasing lay responder cardiopulmonary resuscitation and automated external defibrillator use during sudden cardiac arrest depends on an individual’s choice. Investigators designed and piloted an instrument to measure the affective domain of helping behaviors by applying the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to better understand lay responders’ intent to use lifesaving skills. Method. Questionnaire items were compiled into 10 behavioral domains informed by the TPB constructs followed by refinement via piloting and expert review. Two samples from an American Red Cross–trained lay-responder population ( N = 4,979) provided data for an exploratory (EFA, n = 235) and confirmatory (CFA, n = 198) factor analyses. EFA derived interitem relationships into factors and affective subscales. CFA yielded statistical validation of factors and subscales. Results. The EFA identified four factors, aligned with the TPB constructs of attitudes, norms, confidence, and intention to act to explain 57% of interitem variance. The internal consistency of factor-derived subscales ranged between 0.71 and 0.91. Reduction of instrument items went from 47 to 32 (32%). The CFA yielded good model fit with the switching of the legal ramification item from the social norm to intention construct. Conclusion. The Intent to Aid (I2A) survey derived from this investigation aligned with the constructs of the TPB yielding four subscales. The I2A allows health education researchers to differentiate modalities and content impact on learner intention to act in a first aid (FA) emergency. I2A compliments cognitive and psychomotor measurements of learning outcomes. The experimental instrument aims to allow curricula developers and program evaluators a means of assessing the affective domain of human learning regarding intention-to-act in an FA emergency. In combination of with assessment of functional knowledge and essential skills, this instrument may provide curricula developers and health educators an avenue to better describe intention to act in an FA emergency.

The Development of the VP-SAFvR: An Actuarial Instrument for Police Triage of Australian Family Violence Reports

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy E. McEwan ◽  
Daniel E. Shea ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff
Keyword(s):  
Family Violence ◽  
Family Relationships ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Same Sex Couples ◽  
Australian Family ◽  
Criminal Histories ◽  
Screening Assessment ◽  
Development And Validation

This study describes the rationale, development, and validation of the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR). The actuarial instrument was developed on a sample of 24,446 Australian police reports from 2013-2014. Information from each report and criminal histories of those involved were collected with 12-month follow-up, and binary logistic regression used to develop an improper predictive model. The selected VP-SAFvR cut-off score correctly identified almost three quarters of cases with further reports, while half of those without were accurately excluded. It was effective for frontline police triage decision-making, with few screened-out cases reporting further family violence, while those screened-in required additional risk assessment. Predictive validity was adequate and consistent across family relationships and demographic groups, although it was less effective in predicting future family violence reports involving same-sex couples or child perpetrators. Further evaluation in a field trial is necessary to determine the validity of the VP-SAFvR in practice.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chansik An ◽  
Hyun Cheol Oh ◽  
Jung Hyun Chang ◽  
Seung-Jin Oh ◽  
Jung Mo Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prognostic Score ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Underlying Disease ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Patient Will ◽  
National Cohort ◽  
Evaluation Metric ◽  
Development And Validation

AbstractWe developed a tool to guide decision-making for early triage of COVID-19 patients based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients, and validated the developed tool with an external cohort of 445 patients treated in a single institution. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5 °C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. In the external validation, when age, sex, symptoms, and underlying disease were used as predictors, the AUC used as an evaluation metric for our model’s performance was 0.850 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.833 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. The AUCs improved to 0.871 and 0.864, respectively, when additional information on vital signs and blood test results were also used. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75. An application for calculating the prognostic score in COVID-19 patients based on the results of this study is presented on our website (https://nhimc.shinyapps.io/ih-psc/), where the results of the validation ongoing in our institution are periodically updated.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javid Azadbakht ◽  
Sina Rashedi ◽  
Soheil Kooraki ◽  
Hamed Kowsari ◽  
Elnaz Tabibian
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Prospective Multicenter Study ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Objectives We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict clinical deterioration defined as either death or intensive care unit admission of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Methods This prospective, multicenter study investigated 172 consecutive hospitalized COVID-19 patients who underwent a chest computed tomography (CT) scan between March 20 and April 30, 2020 (development cohort), as well as an independent sample of 40 consecutive patients for external validation (validation cohort). The clinical, laboratory, and radiologic data were gathered, and logistic regression along with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed.Results The overall clinical deterioration rates of the development and validation cohorts were 28.4% (49 of 172) and 30% (12 of 40), respectively. Seven predictors were included in the scoring system with a total score of 15: CT severity score\(\ge\)15 (Odds Ratio (OR)=6.34, 4 points), pleural effusion (OR = 6.80, 2 points), symptom onset to admission ≤ 6 days (OR = 2.44, 2 points), age\(\ge\)70 years (OR = 2.44, 2 points), diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.24, 2 points), dyspnea (OR = 2.17, 1.5 points), and abnormal leukocyte count (OR = 1.89, 1.5 points). The area under the ROC curve for the scoring system in the development and validation cohorts was 0.823 (CI [0.751–0.895]) and 0.558 (CI [0.340–0.775]), respectively.Conclusion This study provided a new easy-to-calculate scoring system with external validation for hospitalized COVID-19 patients to predict clinical deterioration based on a combination of seven clinical, laboratory, and radiologic parameters.

Pornography Use and Sexual Offending: An Examination of Perceptions of Role and Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2110491
Author(s):  
Karen Holt ◽  
James Kissinger ◽  
Corey Spickler ◽  
Vicki Roush
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Central Research ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Sexual Crimes ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Pornography Use ◽  
Abstinence Only

Despite no definitive relationship between pornography and sexual offenses, there exists an assumption that use plays a role in the commission of sexual crimes and may increase risk of recidivism. This has led to the development of post-release restrictions on adult media for those convicted of a sexual offense. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 101 incarcerated individuals convicted of a sexual offense to explore the central research questions: (1) What are the common themes among individual’s experiences regarding pornography and how do they construct the role of pornography in their offending? (2) How do they frame pornography use post-release and understand pornography use as related to risk of re-offense? A qualitative analysis revealed common themes regarding how individuals constructed pornography use and notions of risk. Strategic and targeted monitoring and supervision of those who perceive their pornography use as consuming and facilitating may be a more effective practice than abstinence-only blanket restrictions.

Evaluation of cohort diversity in development and validation studies of hereditary cancer genetic risk assessment models.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10600-10600
Author(s):  
Amanda Gammon ◽  
Ambreen Khan ◽  
Joanne M. Jeter
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Validation Studies ◽  
Genetic Risk ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Ashkenazi Jewish ◽  
Genetic Risk Assessment ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Development And Validation

10600 Background: Multiple models estimate a person’s chance of harboring a pathogenic variant increasing cancer risk. Some pathogenic variants are more common in individuals from specific ancestries, such as the BRCA1 and BRCA2 founder variants in Ashkenazi Jews. Yet data remains limited on the larger variant spectrum seen among people of different ancestral backgrounds and whether or not the pathogenic variant frequency differs in many populations. Due to this, it is important that genetic risk assessment models be validated in a diverse cohort including Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC). Methods: A literature search was conducted to identify published development and validation studies for the following genetic risk assessment models: BRCAPRO, MMRPRO, CanRisk/BOADICEA, Tyrer-Cuzick, and PREMM. Validation studies that only evaluated the cancer risk prediction capabilities of the models (and not the genetic variant risk prediction) were excluded. The following participant information was abstracted from each study: total number of participants, gender, race, and ethnicity. Authors were contacted to obtain missing information (if available). Results: 12 development and 12 validation studies of the genetic risk assessment models BRCAPRO, MMRPRO, CanRisk/BOADICEA, Tyrer-Cuzick, and PREMM were abstracted. Of the validation studies, five were internal validation studies conducted by the model developers, and seven were external validation studies. Four external validation studies compared multiple models. 75% (18/24) of papers did not include reporting of participant race or ethnicity information in their published reports. External validation studies (4/7, 57%) more often reported participant race/ethnicity than development (0/12, 0%) or internal validation (2/5, 40%) studies. The external validation studies for BRCAPRO reporting race/ethnicity information involved cohorts that ranged from 50-51% non-Ashkenazi Jewish white, 28% African American, 1% Asian, 2-49% Hispanic, and 19-42% Ashkenazi Jewish. The external validation studies for MMRPRO and PREMM reporting race/ethnicity information involved cohort that ranged from 0-82% white, 4-100% Asian, 7% Black, and 7% Hispanic. Conclusions: Increased reporting of participant ancestry and ethnicity is needed in the development and validation studies of genetic risk assessment models. BRCAPRO’s validation cohorts have included a higher percentage of Hispanic and Black/African American participants, while MMRPRO and PREMM have been validated in a higher percentage of Asian participants. As debate continues about the utility of currently used racial categories in genetics research, it will be important to determine how best to report on participant diversity. These findings highlight the continued need for genetics researchers to engage BIPOC and identify ways to diversify their participant cohorts.

scholarly journals Evaluating Modeling and Validation Strategies for Tooth Loss

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (10) ◽  
pp. 1088-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Krois ◽  
C. Graetz ◽  
B. Holtfreter ◽  
P. Brinkmann ◽  
T. Kocher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tooth Loss ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Recursive Partitioning ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Development And Validation

Prediction models learn patterns from available data (training) and are then validated on new data (testing). Prediction modeling is increasingly common in dental research. We aimed to evaluate how different model development and validation steps affect the predictive performance of tooth loss prediction models of patients with periodontitis. Two independent cohorts (627 patients, 11,651 teeth) were followed over a mean ± SD 18.2 ± 5.6 y (Kiel cohort) and 6.6 ± 2.9 y (Greifswald cohort). Tooth loss and 10 patient- and tooth-level predictors were recorded. The impact of different model development and validation steps was evaluated: 1) model complexity (logistic regression, recursive partitioning, random forest, extreme gradient boosting), 2) sample size (full data set or 10%, 25%, or 75% of cases dropped at random), 3) prediction periods (maximum 10, 15, or 20 y or uncensored), and 4) validation schemes (internal or external by centers/time). Tooth loss was generally a rare event (880 teeth were lost). All models showed limited sensitivity but high specificity. Patients’ age and tooth loss at baseline as well as probing pocket depths showed high variable importance. More complex models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting) had no consistent advantages over simpler ones (logistic regression, recursive partitioning). Internal validation (in sample) overestimated the predictive power (area under the curve up to 0.90), while external validation (out of sample) found lower areas under the curve (range 0.62 to 0.82). Reducing the sample size decreased the predictive power, particularly for more complex models. Censoring the prediction period had only limited impact. When the model was trained in one period and tested in another, model outcomes were similar to the base case, indicating temporal validation as a valid option. No model showed higher accuracy than the no-information rate. In conclusion, none of the developed models would be useful in a clinical setting, despite high accuracy. During modeling, rigorous development and external validation should be applied and reported accordingly.

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