scholarly journals Biresponses Kernel Nonparametric Regression: Inflation and Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 465-471
Author(s):  
Suparti Suparti ◽  
◽  
Budi Warsito ◽  
Rukun Santoso ◽  
Hasbi Yasin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Kernel Model ◽  
Better Than

The relation between inflation and economic growth is interesting to observe. To maintain the inflation rate, two factors should be taken into account, namely keeping the economic pulse at its optimal rate and keeping people's purchasing power from decreasing. Many factors influence the inflation and economic growth of a nation; one of which is the national bank interest rate. Since the data of inflation are closely related to economic growth, this study aims at modelling the data of inflation rate and economic growth of Central Java Province in Indonesia using bi-response kernel regression. Employing the data from the first trimester of 2007 up to those from the second trimester of 2019 which were processed using kernel Gauss, the best model to minimise the value of GCV was obtained with optimum h for inflation model amounting to 0.12 and 81.75 for economic growth model. The model performance was excellent because the MAPE out sample was less than 10%. The biresponses kernel model is better than the linear biresponses model in terms of GCV, MSE, R2, and MAPE values.

scholarly journals Prospects for Vietnam’s Economy in 2013

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 02-11
Author(s):  
NGÂN TRẦN HOÀNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

In 2012, Vietnam?s economy faced great challenges. The world economy experienced more difficulties and complicated upheavals. International trade fell drastically while global growth rate was lower than predicted target, which affected badly the Vietnamese economy because of its full integration into the world economy and large openness. In this context, principal targets set for 2013 are macroeconomic stability, lower inflation rate, higher growth rate, three strategic breakthroughs associated with restructuring of the economy, and a new economic growth model. This paper analyzes obstacles to Vietnam?s economic growth, and offers short-term solutions to bottlenecks and long-term ones to the economic restructuring.

scholarly journals MODELING CENTRAL JAVA INFLATION AND GRDP RATE USING SPLINE TRUNCATED BIRESPON REGRESSION AND BIRESPON LINEAR MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Suparti Suparti ◽  
Alan Prahutama ◽  
Agus Rusgiyono ◽  
Sudargo Sudargo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Nonparametric Method ◽  
Correlated Responses ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Better Than

Inflation and Gross Regional Domestic Income (GRDP) are two macroeconomic variables of a region that are correlated with each other. GRDP prices constant (real) can be used as an indicator of economic growth in a region from year to year. Inflation is calculated from the CPI rate and economic growth is calculated from the GRDP rate. Inflation and economic growth in an area are influenced by several factors including bank interest rates. Analysis of data consisting of 2 correlated responses can be performed with birespon regression analysis. In this research, modeling of inflation data and the rate of GRDP through birespon data modeling uses spline truncated nonparametric method and birespon linear parametric method. The purpose of this study is to model inflation data and the Central Java GRDP rate using spline truncated birespon regression. The results are compared with the birespon linear regression model. By using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2007 - the second quarter of 2019, the spline truncated model is better than the linear model, because the spline truncated model has a smaller MSE and R2 is greater than the linear model. Both models have the same performance which is quite good.

scholarly journals Inflation and economic growth: the search for a compromise for the Central Bank's monetary policy

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Mishchenko ◽  
Svitlana Naumenkova ◽  
Svitlana Mishchenko ◽  
Viktor Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Relationship

The article analyzes the influence of inflation on economic growth and substantiates the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the central bank's anti-inflation policy. In order to determine the limit of inflation, the excess of which has a negative impact on the economic growth, the relationship is analyzed between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate on the basis of IMF statistics using the example of 158 countries. It was determined that in 2010–2017, in the global economy, the 6.0% inflation was the marginal value of the inflation rate, beyond which the economic growth rate declined or slowed down. Given the inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rates as well as empirical calculations for the period 1996–2017, the threshold for inflation rate for Ukraine at the level of 4.51% was determined based on empirical calculations for the 1996–2017 period. The results indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine set the inflation target above the level of the calculated threshold inflation. It has also been established that the link between the rates of nominal GDP growth, as opposed to real GDP, and the inflation rate, is more direct and more tight. It is substantiated that to analyze such dependence it is better to use GDP deflator instead of CPI. The results indicate that deflation constrains economic growth much less than inflation. In order to increase the effectiveness of the central bank’s pro-cyclical monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth, the relationship between the rates of real GDP growth and the indicator characterizing the gap between the growth rates of M3 and inflation, which actually reflects the real money supply dynamics, is determined. The results obtained allowed to conclude that in 2009 and 2014-2017, the artificial “squeezing” of the money supply took place in Ukraine, resulting in a decrease in the level of the economy monetization by 22.0% in 2017 compared to 2013.It has been proved that in order to minimize the negative impact of inflationary processes on economic growth, the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine should be aimed at eliminating the artificial squeezing of the money supply through a reasonable increase in the economy monetization and the implementation of an effective monetary policy.

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS: A STUDY ON MALAYSIAN MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhaily Maizan Abdul Manaf ◽  
Shuhada Mohamed Hamidi ◽  
Nur Shafini Mohd Said ◽  
Siti Rapidah Omar Ali ◽  
Nur Dalila Adenan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Internal And External Factors

Economic performance of a country is mostly determined by the growth and any other internal and external factors. In this study, researchers purposely focused on Malaysian market by examining the relationship between export, inflation rate, government expenditure and foreign direct investment towards economic growth in Malaysia by applying the yearly data of 47 years from 1970 to 2016 using descriptive statistics, regression model and correlation method analysis. By applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, the result suggests that export, government expenditure and foreign direct investment are positively and significantly correlated with the economic growth. However, inflation rate has negative and insignificant relationship with the economic growth. The outcome of the study is suggested to be useful in providing the future research direction towards the economic growth in Malaysia. Keywords: economic growth; export; inflation rate; government expenditure

Dynamic analysis in an economic growth model with CES utility function and delay

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Ioana Oprea ◽  
Pater Flavius ◽  
Adina Juratoni ◽  
Olivia Bundau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
Ces Utility Function

General Models for Automated Essay Scoring: Exploring an Alternative to the Status Quo

2005 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Adam Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Writing Assessment ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Automated Essay Scoring ◽  
The Status ◽  
Essay Scoring ◽  
Better Than

Powers, Burstein, Chodorow, Fowles, and Kukich (2002) suggested that automated essay scoring (AES) may benefit from the use of “general” scoring models designed to score essays irrespective of the prompt for which an essay was written. They reasoned that such models may enhance score credibility by signifying that an AES system measures the same writing characteristics across all essays. They reported empirical evidence that general scoring models performed nearly as well in agreeing with human readers as did prompt-specific models, the “status quo” for most AES systems. In this study, general and prompt-specific models were again compared, but this time, general models performed as well as or better than prompt-specific models. Moreover, general models measured the same writing characteristics across all essays, while prompt-specific models measured writing characteristics idiosyncratic to the prompt. Further comparison of model performance across two different writing tasks and writing assessment programs bolstered the case for general models.

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