scholarly journals MODELING CENTRAL JAVA INFLATION AND GRDP RATE USING SPLINE TRUNCATED BIRESPON REGRESSION AND BIRESPON LINEAR MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Suparti Suparti ◽  
Alan Prahutama ◽  
Agus Rusgiyono ◽  
Sudargo Sudargo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Nonparametric Method ◽  
Correlated Responses ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Better Than

Inflation and Gross Regional Domestic Income (GRDP) are two macroeconomic variables of a region that are correlated with each other. GRDP prices constant (real) can be used as an indicator of economic growth in a region from year to year. Inflation is calculated from the CPI rate and economic growth is calculated from the GRDP rate. Inflation and economic growth in an area are influenced by several factors including bank interest rates. Analysis of data consisting of 2 correlated responses can be performed with birespon regression analysis. In this research, modeling of inflation data and the rate of GRDP through birespon data modeling uses spline truncated nonparametric method and birespon linear parametric method. The purpose of this study is to model inflation data and the Central Java GRDP rate using spline truncated birespon regression. The results are compared with the birespon linear regression model. By using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2007 - the second quarter of 2019, the spline truncated model is better than the linear model, because the spline truncated model has a smaller MSE and R2 is greater than the linear model. Both models have the same performance which is quite good.

EFFECTS OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON DIASPORA REMITTANCES IN KENYA FOR THE PERIOD 1980 TO 2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 741-751
Author(s):  
PEREZ ONONO ◽  
ABBA Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Financial Sector Development ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Economic Ties

This study investigated the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on diaspora remittances in Kenya. Earlier studies for Kenya on diaspora remittances have focused mainly on the importance of foreign remittances on economic growth and stock market performance with less focus on macroeconomic variables that drives the remittances. In particular, the study determined the effect of economic growth, interest rates, and openness of the economy, interest rates differential and exchange rates on diaspora remittances in Kenya for the period 1980 – 2016 based on quarterly data. The study found that currency depreciation increases diaspora remittances. Similarly, economic growth, financail sector development and openness of the economy were shown to increase diaspora remittances. Based on the findings, the study recommends the need for effective application of prudent macroeconomic policies to attract more diaspora remittances inflows. In addition, there is need to adopt policies geared towards financial sector development such as the policies on formalization of the informal financial services, leveraging on the technology for financial sector development. Lastly, establishing more economic ties beyond trade with other economies to address issues on the taxation and other charges on the remitting funds from abroad would go a long way in promoting diaspora remittances inflows.

scholarly journals Dampak Kebijakan Loan to Value dan Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Permintaan Kredit Pemilikan Rumah

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 404-411
Author(s):  
Sandi Atmaja Siravati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Central Java

Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga kredit, inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, loan to deposit ratio, loan to value terhadap permintaan kredit pemilikan rumah di Jawa Tengah. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah permintaan kredit pemilikan rumah, suku bunga kredit, inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, loan to deposit ratio, loan to value. Data dianalisis dengan metode kuantitatif. Alat yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga kredit dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan kredit pemilikan rumah di Jawa Tengah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan loan to deposit ratio berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kredit pemilikan rumah di Jawa Tengah. Loan to value tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan kredit pemilikan rumah di Jawa Tengah..   The purpose of this study is to know and analyze the effect of credit interest rates, inflation, economic growth, loan to deposit ratio, loan to value to mortgages demand in Central Java.  The sample of this study is mortgages demand, credit interest rates, inflation, economic growth, loan to deposit ratio, loan to value. The collect data was analyzed using quantitative method. This study used multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that the credit interest rates and inflation is negative and significant effect towards mortgages demand in Central Java. Economic growth and loan to deposit ratio of positive and significant effect towards the mortgages in Central Java. Loan to value has no effect towards mortgages demand in Central Java.

scholarly journals ANALISIS ARIMA DAN WAVELET UNTUK PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH BESAR DI JAWA TENGAH

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Chrisentia Widya Ardianti ◽  
Rukun Santoso ◽  
Sudarno Sudarno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Haar Wavelet ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Central Java ◽  
The One ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

Time series is a type of data collected according to the sequence of times in a certain time span. Time series data can be used as a predictor of future conditions. Analysis of time series data, one of the ARIMA units, is a parametric method that requires an assumption to get valid results. Data stationarity is one of the factors that must be fulfilled. Wavelet is a non-parametric method that is able to represent time and frequency information simultaneously, so that it can analyze non-stationary data. This research presents forecasting the price of red chili in Central Java using ARIMA and wavelet with the approach of the Multiscale Autoregressive (MAR) model. The best model is the one with the smallest MSE value. The results showed that the ARIMA(0,1,1) model was said to be the best model with MSE = 2252142. However, because the assumption of normality is not fulfilled, an alternative process is done with wavelet. Wavelet approach results show that the MAR model Haar filter level (j) = 4 with MSE = 2175906 is better than Daubechies 4 filter 4 level (j) = 1 with MSE = 3999669. Therefore, the Haar wavelet is considered better in the time series analysis. Keyword : ARIMA, wavelet, MAR, forecasting, MSE

scholarly journals Matching NBP interest rates to different versions of the Taylor rule

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-177
Author(s):  
Tomasz Grabia
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Gdp Gap

The interest rate is the basic instrument of monetary policy, directly or indirectly affecting basic macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, unemployment and economic growth. The aim of the article is to compare the NBP reference rate with hypothetical rates calculated on the basis of different variants of the Taylor rule and to indicate which of those variants is best suited to the situation in Poland. The study period of 2000-2017 was adopted for the analysis. On its basis, it was found that in most cases the real interest rate of the central bank in Poland strongly coincided with rates that would have been set if one of the varieties of the Taylor rule had been in force. The best match coincided with the modified version of this rule, which was created after the economic crisis. That means that the NBP took into account both the deviations of inflation from the target and the GDP gap when making decisions regarding interest rates.

scholarly journals A kelet-közép-európai háztartási megtakarításokat és eladósodást meghatározó makrogazdasági tényezők = The determinants of household savings

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-127
Author(s):  
Viktória Endrődi-Kovács ◽  
Gábor Kutasi ◽  
Tímea Adél Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Neoclassical Economics ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Household Savings ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Real

A különböző közgazdasági irányzatok között egységes álláspont, hogy a háztartások megtakarítása a beruházáson keresztül a gazdasági növekedés egyik motorja. Azt illetően azonban, hogy a lakossági megtakarításokat, illetve az eladósodottságot milyen tényezők határozzák meg, éles vita figyelhető meg a szakirodalomban. Amíg például a neoklasszikus közgazdaságtan a kamatlábra helyezi a hangsúlyt, addig a keynesi megközelítés inkább a jövedelemre. A tanulmány a kelet-közép-európai (V4+3) gazdaságok háztartási megtakarítására vonatkozóan végez OLS panelregressziós elemzést. A különböző torzító hatások kiszűrésével beazonosítja azokat a makrogazdasági változókat, amelyek ténylegesen hatnak a háztartási szektor megtakarításaira és eladósodására. Mindebből következtetni lehet a hatékony megtakarítás-ösztönzőkre. = There is a common approach among the various economics schools that households’ savings are an engine of the economic growth by investments. However, a sharp discussion can be observed in the literature about the real determinant factors of household savings and indebtedness. While the neoclassical economics focuses on interest rates among others, the Keynesian approach emphasises rather the role of income. The study performs OLS panel regression analysis about the household savings of Central and Eastern European (V4+3) economies. It identifies the macroeconomic variables that factually affect the households’ savings and indebtedness by filtering the various distorting effects. The results give opportunity to conclude about the effective incentives for savings.

scholarly journals Biresponses Kernel Nonparametric Regression: Inflation and Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 465-471
Author(s):  
Suparti Suparti ◽  
◽  
Budi Warsito ◽  
Rukun Santoso ◽  
Hasbi Yasin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Kernel Model ◽  
Better Than

The relation between inflation and economic growth is interesting to observe. To maintain the inflation rate, two factors should be taken into account, namely keeping the economic pulse at its optimal rate and keeping people's purchasing power from decreasing. Many factors influence the inflation and economic growth of a nation; one of which is the national bank interest rate. Since the data of inflation are closely related to economic growth, this study aims at modelling the data of inflation rate and economic growth of Central Java Province in Indonesia using bi-response kernel regression. Employing the data from the first trimester of 2007 up to those from the second trimester of 2019 which were processed using kernel Gauss, the best model to minimise the value of GCV was obtained with optimum h for inflation model amounting to 0.12 and 81.75 for economic growth model. The model performance was excellent because the MAPE out sample was less than 10%. The biresponses kernel model is better than the linear biresponses model in terms of GCV, MSE, R2, and MAPE values.

scholarly journals Liquidity Synchronization, Its Determinants and Outcomes under Economic Growth Volatility: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Syeda Hina Zaidi ◽  
Ramona Rupeika-Apoga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Market Index ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Growth Volatility

This study investigates the country-level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market-wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerging market index: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines for analysis from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings show high levels of liquidity synchronicity in weaker economic and financial environments with low GDP growth, high inflation and interest rates and underdeveloped financial systems taking the form of low levels of private credit. Liquidity synchronicity is also affected by poor investor protection, political instability, weak rule of law and government ineffectiveness. Moreover, levels of liquidity synchronicity are higher in a period of economic growth volatility.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

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