INTRODUCTION OF THE HUMAN FACTOR INTO THE RISK ASSESSMENT USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.R. González Dan ◽  
A. Guix ◽  
V. Martí ◽  
Josep Arnaldos ◽  
R.M. Darbra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Human Factor

scholarly journals Economic analysis and risk assessment of biomass gasification CHP systems of different sizes through Monte Carlo simulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 1954-1961
Author(s):  
Andrea Colantoni ◽  
Mauro Villarini ◽  
Danilo Monarca ◽  
Maurizio Carlini ◽  
Enrico Maria Mosconi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Biomass Gasification

HUMAN FACTOR ANALYSIS OF CONTAINER VESSEL’S GROUNDING ACCIDENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 159 (A1) ◽  
Author(s):  
U Yildirim ◽  
O Ugurlu ◽  
E Basar ◽  
E Yuksekyildiz
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Human Performance ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Team Management ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Physical Problems ◽  
Mental Problems

Investigation on maritime accidents is a very important tool in identifying human factor-related problems. This study examines the causes of accidents, in particular the reasons for the grounding of container ships. These are analysed and evaluation according to the contribution rate using the Monte Carlo simulation. The OpenFTA program is used to run the simulation. The study data are obtained from 46 accident reports from 1993 to 2011. The data were prepared by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS). The GISIS is one of the organizations that investigate reported accidents in an international framework and in national shipping companies. The Monte Carlo simulation determined a total of 23.96% human error mental problems, 26.04% physical problems, 38.58% voyage management errors, and 11.42% team management error causes. Consequently, 50% of the human error is attributable to human performance disorders, while 50% team failure has been found.

scholarly journals Fault Risk Assessment of Underwater Vehicle Steering System Based on Virtual Prototyping and Monte Carlo Simulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-105
Author(s):  
Deyu He ◽  
Niaoqing Hu ◽  
Lei Hu ◽  
Ling Chen ◽  
YiPing Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Fault Injection ◽  
Fault Simulation ◽  
Virtual Prototyping ◽  
Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Steering System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Indicator

Abstract Assessing the risks of steering system faults in underwater vehicles is a human-machine-environment (HME) systematic safety field that studies faults in the steering system itself, the driver’s human reliability (HR) and various environmental conditions. This paper proposed a fault risk assessment method for an underwater vehicle steering system based on virtual prototyping and Monte Carlo simulation. A virtual steering system prototype was established and validated to rectify a lack of historic fault data. Fault injection and simulation were conducted to acquire fault simulation data. A Monte Carlo simulation was adopted that integrated randomness due to the human operator and environment. Randomness and uncertainty of the human, machine and environment were integrated in the method to obtain a probabilistic risk indicator. To verify the proposed method, a case of stuck rudder fault (SRF) risk assessment was studied. This method may provide a novel solution for fault risk assessment of a vehicle or other general HME system.

Monte Carlo Simulation Model for Predicting Salmonella Contamination of Chicken Liver as a Function of Serving Size for Use in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Oscar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Chicken Liver ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Serving Size ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Model

The first step in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is to determine distribution of pathogen contamination among servings of the food at some point in the farm-to-table chain. In the present study, distribution of Salmonella contamination among servings of chicken liver for use in QMRA was determined at meal preparation. A combination of five methods: 1) whole sample enrichment; 2) quantitative polymerase chain reaction; 3) cultural isolation; 4) serotyping; and 5) Monte Carlo simulation were used to determine Salmonella prevalence (P), number (N), and serotype for different serving sizes. In addition, epidemiological data were used to convert serotype data to virulence (V) values for use in QMRA. A Monte Carlo simulation model based in Excel and simulated with @Risk predicted Salmonella P, N, serotype, and V as a function of serving size from one (58 g) to eight (464 g) chicken livers. Salmonella P of chicken livers was 72.5% (58/80) per 58 g. Four serotypes were isolated from chicken livers: 1) Infantis (P = 28%, V = 4.5); 2) Enteritidis (P = 15%, V = 5); 3) Typhimirium (P = 15%, V = 4.8); and 4) Kentucky (P = 15%, V = 0.8). Median Salmonella N was 1.76 log per 58 g (range: 0 to 4.67 log/58 g) and was not affected ( P > 0.05) by serotype. The model predicted a non-linear increase ( P ≤ 0.05) of Salmonella P from 72.5% per 58 g to 100% per 464 g, minimum N from 0 log per 58 g to 1.28 log per 464 g, and median N from 1.76 log per 58 g to 3.22 log per 464 g. Regardless of serving size, predicted maximum N was 4.74 log, mean V was 3.9, and total N was 6.65 log per lot (10,000 chicken livers). The data acquired and model developed in this study fill an important data and modeling gap in QMRA for Salmonella and chicken liver.

A Weighted Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment of Information Security Management System

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan ◽  
Mohammad Dehghanimohammadabadi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management System ◽  
Security Management ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Information Security Management ◽  
Information Security Management System

In recent decades, information has become a critical asset to various organizations, hence identifying and preventing the loss of information are becoming competitive advantages for firms. Many international standards have been developed to help organizations to maintain their competitiveness by applying risk assessment and information security management system and keep risk level as low as possible. This study aims to propose a new quantitative risk analysis and assessment methodology which is based on AHP and Monte Carlo simulation. In this method, AHP is used to create favorable weights for Confidentiality, Integrity and Availability (CIA) as security characteristic of any information asset. To deal with the uncertain nature of vulnerabilities and threats, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to handle the stochastic nature of risk assessment by taking into account multiple judges' opinions. The proposed methodology is suitable for organizations that require risk analysis to implement ISO/IEC 27001 standard.

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