Baseline Studies and Risk Analyses in the Baltic Sea
ABSTRACT In 1986 an oil and gas concession in the Baltic Sea was granted by the Danish Ministry of Energy to a group of oil companies, with Norsk Hydro as operator. A paper describing the goals achieved midway through the program was presented at the 1989 Oil Spill Conference in San Antonio, Texas. This paper presents the final results of the program. The chemical baseline study has shown that the only parameter that exhibits a marked variation is the total hydrocarbon content, where values are seven to eight times higher in the 1989 samples than in the 1987 and 1988 samples. It is suspected that the reason is seasonal variation, since the 1989 samples were collected in June, while the 1987 and 1988 samples were collected in September. Even though the total hydrocarbon content varies significantly between some of the sample suites, only biomarkers related to recent organic material or immature petroleum source rocks are present in the samples. Petrogenic hydrocarbons related to spilled crude oil or exploration activities were not found in the area. The spreading and weathering calculations revealed the zones along the coast where an oil spill was most likely to occur. The transport time for an oil spill to reach the coast was also calculated by the model. In combination with mapping of sensitive resources, the results from the model test runs were used in risk assessments. The information gained in this study was used in the oil spill contingency plan.