A Novel Compartmental Model for Analysis and Projection of COVID-19 Dynamics in Bangladesh

A novel compartmental model is proposed to project the COVID-19 dynamics in Bangladesh. The exposed population is divided into two classes: tested and not tested. Model parameters are estimated by fitting the output with empirical COVID-19 data of Bangladesh from 7 April 2020 to 15 June 2020. It is found that even if 90% of exposed individuals are tested, number of unidentified cases (recovered or dead) is 3 to 4 times than that of identified cases. As of 15 June 2020, Bangladesh is using the Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) based test to detect the novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of false negative rate of this test on unidentified infection is analyzed. It is found that the year-end total recoveries (deaths) surges 700 (800) times if the false negative rate is doubled. Periodic lockdown and relaxation intervals are incorporated by defining the effective contact rate (β) as a periodic function of time. Impact of lockdown is perspicuous from the periodic fluctuation of the basic reproduction number ( ). It is observed that a 90-day-lockdwon reduces the final outcome by 3% while a 30-day-lockdwon increases it by 2%. On other hand, casualties are 10 to 100 times worse in case of no lockdown even with less than half effective contact rate. Analysis of strictness of isolation reveals that a 12.5% increase in the strictness coefficient reduces the exposed population 2.5 times whereas a 37.5% decrease in it intensifies the outcome nearly 9 times. Projections up to 6 April 2021 suggests that the epidemic will reach its peak in Bangladesh in August 2020.

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The Effect of a Diverse Dataset for Transfer Learning in Thermal Person Detection

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s20071982 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (7) ◽

pp. 1982 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Noor Ul Huda ◽

Bolette D. Hansen ◽

Rikke Gade ◽

Thomas B. Moeslund

Keyword(s):

Transfer Learning ◽

Privacy Preservation ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Model Adaptation ◽

True Negative ◽

True Negative Rate ◽

Negative Rate ◽

Thermal Cameras ◽

The Impact

Thermal cameras are popular in detection for their precision in surveillance in the dark and for privacy preservation. In the era of data driven problem solving approaches, manually finding and annotating a large amount of data is inefficient in terms of cost and effort. With the introduction of transfer learning, rather than having large datasets, a dataset covering all characteristics and aspects of the target place is more important. In this work, we studied a large thermal dataset recorded for 20 weeks and identified nine phenomena in it. Moreover, we investigated the impact of each phenomenon for model adaptation in transfer learning. Each phenomenon was investigated separately and in combination. the performance was analyzed by computing the F1 score, precision, recall, true negative rate, and false negative rate. Furthermore, to underline our investigation, the trained model with our dataset was further tested on publicly available datasets, and encouraging results were obtained. Finally, our dataset was also made publicly available.

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Does the false‐negative rate for 1 or 2 negative sentinel nodes after neo‐adjuvant chemotherapy translate into a high local recurrence rate?

The Breast Journal ◽

10.1111/tbj.14206 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nicole E. Sharp ◽

Darren B. Sachs ◽

Nicole M. Melchior ◽

Philip Albaneze ◽

Salvatore Nardello ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Adjuvant Chemotherapy ◽

Local Recurrence ◽

Recurrence Rate ◽

Local Recurrence Rate ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Sentinel Nodes ◽

Negative Rate ◽

High Local Recurrence Rate ◽

Neo Adjuvant Chemotherapy

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Effects of Previous Surgery on the Detection of Sentinel Nodes in Women With Vulvar Cancer

International Journal of Gynecological Cancer ◽

10.1097/igc.0b013e31822dbe3c ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 21 (9) ◽

pp. 1679-1683 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Tessa A. Ennik ◽

David G. Allen ◽

Ruud L.M. Bekkers ◽

Simon E. Hyde ◽

Peter T. Grant

Keyword(s):

Vulvar Cancer ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Blue Dye ◽

Previous Surgery ◽

Detection Rates ◽

Reliable Technique ◽

Appearance Time ◽

Negative Rate ◽

Significant Difference

BackgroundThere is a growing interest to apply the sentinel node (SN) procedure in the treatment of vulvar cancer. Previous vulvar surgery might disrupt lymphatic patterns and thereby decrease SN detection rates, lengthen scintigraphic appearance time (SAT), and increase SN false-negative rate. The aims of this study were to evaluate the SN detection rates at the Mercy Hospital for Women in Melbourne and to investigate whether previous vulvar surgery affects SN detection rates, SAT, and SN false-negative rate.MethodsData on all patients with vulvar cancer who underwent an SN procedure (blue dye, technetium, or combined technique) from November 2000 to July 2010 were retrospectively collected.ResultsSixty-five SN procedures were performed. Overall detection rate was 94% per person and 80% per groin. Detection rates in the group of patients who underwent previous excision of the primary tumor were not lower compared with the group without previous surgery or with just an incisional biopsy. There was no statistical significant difference in SAT between the previous excision group and the other patients. None of the patients with a false-negative SN had undergone previous excision.ConclusionsResults indicate that previous excision of a primary vulvar malignancy does not decrease SN detection rates or increase SN false-negative rate. Therefore, the SN procedure appears to be a reliable technique in patients who have previously undergone vulvar surgery. Previous excision did not significantly lengthen SAT, but the sample size in this subgroup analysis was small.

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Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Katherine F. Jarvis ◽

Joshua B. Kelley

Keyword(s):

Viral Load ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Agent Based Model ◽

Agent Based ◽

Viral Spread ◽

Negative Rate

AbstractColleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.

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High mortality with High false negative rate: COVID-19 infection in patients with hematologic malignancies

Leukemia Research ◽

10.1016/j.leukres.2021.106582 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 106 ◽

pp. 106582

Author(s):

Alex Niu ◽

Bo Ning ◽

Francisco Socola ◽

Hana Safah ◽

Tim Reynolds ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Mortality ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Hematologic Malignancies ◽

Negative Rate ◽

High False Negative Rate

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489 The Role of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Cutaneous Head and Neck Melanoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

British Journal of Surgery ◽

10.1093/bjs/znab134.289 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 108 (Supplement_2) ◽

Author(s):

E Johnston ◽

S Taylor ◽

F Bannon ◽

S McAllister

Keyword(s):

Lymph Node ◽

Sentinel Lymph Node ◽

Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy ◽

Head And Neck ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Lymph Node Biopsy ◽

Node Biopsy ◽

Negative Rate ◽

Sentinel Node Identification

Abstract Introduction and Aims The aim of this systematic review is to provide an up-to-date evaluation of the role and test performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in the head and neck. Method This review follows the PRISMA guidelines. Database searches for MEDLINE and EMBASE were constructed to retrieve human studies published between 1st January 2010 and 1st July 2020 assessing the role and accuracy of sentinel lymph node biopsy in cutaneous malignant melanoma of the head and neck. Articles were independently screened by two reviewers and critically appraised using the MINORS criteria. The primary outcomes consisted of the sentinel node identification rate and test-performance measures, including the false-negative rate and the posttest probability negative. Results A total of 27 studies, including 4688 patients, met the eligibility criteria. Statistical analysis produced weighted summary estimates for the sentinel node identification rate of 97.3% (95% CI, 95.9% to 98.6%), the false-negative rate of 21.3% (95% CI, 17.0% to 25.4%) and the posttest probability negative of 4.8% (95% CI, 3.9% to 5.8%). Discussion Sentinel lymph node biopsy is accurate and feasible in the head and neck. Despite technical improvements in localisation techniques, the false negative rate remains disproportionately higher than for melanoma in other anatomical sites.

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Stability analysis of a dynamical model of tuberculosis with incomplete treatment

Advances in Difference Equations ◽

10.1186/s13662-020-02950-0 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ihsan Ullah ◽

Saeed Ahmad ◽

Qasem Al-Mdallal ◽

Zareen A. Khan ◽

Hasib Khan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Contact Rate ◽

Asymptotically Stable ◽

Treatment Rate ◽

Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽

Reproduction Ratio ◽

Efficient Treatment ◽

Effective Contact ◽

The Impact ◽

Incomplete Treatment

Abstract A simple deterministic epidemic model for tuberculosis is addressed in this article. The impact of effective contact rate, treatment rate, and incomplete treatment versus efficient treatment is investigated. We also analyze the asymptotic behavior, spread, and possible eradication of the TB infection. It is observed that the disease transmission dynamics is characterized by the basic reproduction ratio $\Re _{0}$ ℜ 0 ; if $\Re _{0}<1$ ℜ 0 < 1 , there is only a disease-free equilibrium which is both locally and globally asymptotically stable. Moreover, for $\Re _{0}>1$ ℜ 0 > 1 , a unique positive endemic equilibrium exists which is globally asymptotically stable. The global stability of the equilibria is shown via Lyapunov function. It is also obtained that incomplete treatment of TB causes increase in disease infection while efficient treatment results in a reduction in TB. Finally, for the estimated parameters, some numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results. These numerical results indicate that decrease in the effective contact rate λ and increase in the treatment rate γ play a significant role in the TB infection control.

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Assessment of Lymph Node Involvement with PET-CT in Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer. A FRANCOGYN Group Study

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10040602 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 602

Author(s):

Antoine Tardieu ◽

Lobna Ouldamer ◽

François Margueritte ◽

Lauranne Rossard ◽

Aymeline Lacorre ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lymph Node ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Lymph Node Involvement ◽

Accuracy Rate ◽

Peritoneal Cancer ◽

Negative Rate ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Pet Ct ◽

Node Involvement

The objective of our study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET-CT) for the assessment of lymph node involvement in advanced epithelial ovarian, fallopian tubal or peritoneal cancer (EOC). This was a retrospective, bicentric study. We included all patients over 18 years of age with a histological diagnosis of advanced EOC who had undergone PET-CT at the time of diagnosis or prior to cytoreduction surgery with pelvic or para-aortic lymphadenectomy. We included 145 patients with primary advanced EOC. The performance of PET-CT was calculated from the data of 63 patients. The sensitivity of PET-CT for preoperative lymph node evaluation was 26.7%, specificity was 90.9%, PPV was 72.7%, and NPV was 57.7%. The accuracy rate was 60.3%, and the false-negative rate was 34.9%. In the case of primary cytoreduction (n = 16), the sensitivity of PET-CT was 50%, specificity was 87.5%, PPV was 80%, and NPV was 63.6%. The accuracy rate was 68.8%, and the false negative rate was 25%. After neoadjuvant chemotherapy (n = 47), the sensitivity of PET-CT was 18.2%, specificity was 92%, PPV was 66.7%, and NPV was 56.1%. The accuracy rate was 57.5%, and the false negative rate was 38.3%. Due to its high specificity, the performance of a preoperative PET-CT scan could contribute to the de-escalation and reduction of lymphadenectomy in the surgical management of advanced EOC in a significant number of patients free of lymph node metastases.

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Diagnostic Accuracy of Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Computed Tomography Scan in Young Athletes With Spondylolysis

Clinical Pediatrics ◽

10.1177/0009922819832643 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 58 (6) ◽

pp. 671-676

Author(s):

Amy M. West ◽

Pierre A. d’Hemecourt ◽

Olivia J. Bono ◽

Lyle J. Micheli ◽

Dai Sugimoto

Keyword(s):

Magnetic Resonance Imaging ◽

Computed Tomography ◽

Magnetic Resonance ◽

Ct Scan ◽

False Negative ◽

False Negative Rate ◽

Ct Scans ◽

Resonance Imaging ◽

Young Athletes ◽

Negative Rate

The objective of this study was to determine diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) scans in young athletes diagnosed with spondylolysis. A cross-sectional study was used. Twenty-two young athletes (14.7 ± 1.5 years) were diagnosed as spondylolysis based on a single-photon emission CT. Following the diagnosis, participants underwent MRI and CT scan imaging tests on the same day. The sensitivity and false-negative rate of the MRI and CT scans were analyzed. MRI test confirmed 13 (+) and 9 (−) results while CT test showed 17 (+) and 5 (−) results. The sensitivity and false-negative rate of MRI were, respectively, 59.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 36.7% to 78.5%) and 40.9% (95% CI = 21.5% to 63.3%). Furthermore, the sensitivity and false-negative rate of CT scan were 77.3% (95% CI = 54.2% to 91.3%) and 22.7% (95% CI = 0.09% to 45.8%). Our results indicated that CT scan is a more accurate imaging modality to diagnose spondylolysis compared with MRI in young athletes.

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