scholarly journals NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN NET EKSPOR INDONESIA 2000 – 2017 (GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
Try Beta Anggraini ◽  
Yefriza Yefriza
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Net Export ◽  
Adf Test

The aims of this research is to find out the relationship of rupiah exchange rate and net export Indonesia. This research covers the periode for 2000.Q1-2017.Q4, used secondary data which were analyzed using Granger Causality Test and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and existing data processed by using computer program of Eviews 9.0. The stationary properties of the time series data are examined by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Granger Causality test is applied to find out long-run relationship along with causality among the variables. The result of the data analysis show that there is no causality between rupiah exchange rate and net xport. Granger Causality test showed that there is unidirectional causality between net export to rupiah exchange rate. It is mean that net export  effect rupiah exchange rate, but rupiah exchange rate does not effect net export. Keywords: Causality, Net Export, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals PRICE INTERACTIONS AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CORN, EXCHANGE RATE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCES IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Unekwu Onuche
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Meat Price ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Price transmissions between corn, exchange rate, poultry meat, and fish were investigated using the data from OECD-FAO for the years 1990-2019, to establish the existence of long-term relationships between them and identify their directions of causality, in order to elicit investmentaiding facts. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration approach and the Granger causality test were employed. Following the ADF test, all series are I(1), while the cointegration test indicates short-run dynamics between them. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) system reveals that poultry meat price influences all variables, prices of poultry meat and exchange rate relate positively to their own lags, and exchange rate relates positively to lags of poultry meat prices. A positive relationship was noticed between fish price and lags of poultry meat price, while corn price relates positively with lags of poultry meat price. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional drives from poultry price to fish price, the exchange rate to fish price and poultry meat price to corn price. Responses from prices of fish, corn and poultry to innovations from exchange rate are negative, while positive responses exist in other scenarios. Exchange rate stabilization will mitigate external risks, especially to the fisheries sector, while corn farmers can increase profits in the short-run by exploring knowledge of poultry meat price movements.

scholarly journals Exchange rate and Export of Bangladesh: Does Marshall-Lerner condition holds?

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 09-16
Author(s):  
Shovon Roy ◽  
Jonaed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Export is expected to have a favorable impact on GDP growth, and the exchange rate is expected to have a major impact on export and thus export earnings. The relationship between exchange rate and export is a hotly debated topic in macroeconomics, and the goal of this research is to see if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds incase of Bangladesh that is if devaluation of domestic currency increase export earnings. Explanatory variables of the model in the study are the exchange rate, foreign income (WGDP), and domestic income (DGDP). Cointegration approaches; Error Correction model, Granger Causality test are used in this study to estimate the long and short-run impacts. With time series data from 1973Q3 to 2018Q2, we used the Error Correction Model and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of VECM support short-run exchange rate and export adjustments. The bidirectional causality between exchange rate and export is established using the Granger causality test.

scholarly journals Impact of Interest Rate on Household Consumption in Tanzania

2021 ◽  
pp. 44-62
Author(s):  
Daud Mkali Fadhil ◽  
Naifin A. Rajab
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test

This study seeks to determine the exact impact of interest rate on household consumption in Tanzania and identify the direction of causality between the variables. Although there have been few studies which explore the issue of interest rate and consumption, their method, time scope and geographical location has been different. This study aim to examine the relationship between interest rate on deposit and household expenditure in Tanzania using the annual time series data from the period 1990–2017 and employing Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Granger causality test for testing causal relationship between  the variables. The result revealed that there is a negative relationship between interest rate on deposit and consumption for the Tanzania. Additionally, it is observed from the estimate results that interest rate had an insignificant effect on consumption. Furthermore, the granger causality test results have shown that there is bidirectional causal relationship between interest rate and consumption. Furthermore, the result also shows that income and consumption are positively related and statistical significant at 5%. In addition, the findings supported Keynesian's Absolute Income hypothesis which emphasis consumption being a positive function of disposable income. The study recommends that there is the need for government to take urgent steps to implement policies like poverty reduction strategies, agriculture policy and Five Years Development Plans in order to improve the income base of most of households.

Has Social Mobilization Caused Political Instability in Africa? A Granger-Causality Test

1993 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-54
Author(s):  
Bedford N. Umez
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Social Mobilization ◽  
Series Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Results

A Granger-causality test is used to examine whether social mobilization causes political instability. This test allows serious problems encountered in correlation-based analyses to be overcome. Time-series data from seven African countries are used. The empirical results (which vary by country) generally suggest that there is usually a feedback relationship between social mobilization and political instability.

scholarly journals Temperature and Humidity Do Not Influence Global COVID-19 Incidence as Inferred from Causal Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raghav Awasthi ◽  
Aditya Nagori ◽  
Pradeep Singh ◽  
Ridam Pal ◽  
Vineet Joshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Association ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Convergent Cross Mapping

AbstractThe relationship between meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity with COVID-19 incidence is still unclear after 6 months of the beginning of the pandemic. Some literature confirms the association of temperature with disease transmission while some oppose the same. This work intends to determine whether there is a causal association between temperature, humidity and Covid-19 cases. Three different causal models were used to capture stochastic, chaotic and symbolic natured time-series data and to provide a robust & unbiased analysis by constructing networks of causal relationships between the variables. Granger-Causality method, Transfer Entropy method & Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) was done on data from regions with different temperatures and cases greater than 50,000 as of 13th May 2020. From the Granger-Causality test we found that in only Canada, the United Kingdom, temperature and daily new infections are causally linked. The same results were obtained from Convergent Cross Mapping for India. Again using Granger-Causality test, we found that in Russia only, relative humidity is causally linked to daily new cases. Thus, a Generalized Additive Model with a smoothing spline function was fitted for these countries to understand the directionality. Using the combined results of the said models, we were able to conclude that there is no evidence of a causal association between temperature, humidity and Covid-19 cases.

scholarly journals External Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Sajuyigbe, Ademola ◽  
A. Odetayo, Tajudeen ◽  
Z. Adeyemi, Adewumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The study investigates the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1999-2015. The data for this study was obtained mainly from secondary sources mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and Debt Management Office. Time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Economic Growth, External Debt Stock (EXDS), External Debt Service Payment (EDSP), and Exchange Rate (EXGR) were used for the analysis. The techniques of Estimation employed in the study include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Mechanism and Granger Causality Test. Results show that external debt has an inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Subsequently, the study recommends that government should empower Debt Management Office to set the mechanism in place, ensure that loans are utilised for purposes they are meant for and prosecute corrupt public officers who siphoned the money.

scholarly journals DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME SERIES DATA USING BEKK-GARCH MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (36) ◽  
pp. 1186-1198
Author(s):  
Mustofa USMAN ◽  
N INDRYANI ◽  
WARSONO A. ◽  
AMANTO WAMILIANA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Causality Test

The Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is one of the models that is often used in modeling multivariate time series data. In time-series data of economics, especially data return, they usually have high fluctuations in some periods, so the return volatility is unstable. In modeling data return of share prices ADRO and ITMG, the behavior of high volatility will be considered. This study aims to find the best model that fits the data return of share price of the energy companies of PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), to analyze the behavior of impulse response of the variables data return ADRO and ITMG, to analyze the granger causality test, and to forecast the next 12 periods. Based on the selection of the best model using the criteria of AICC, HQC, AIC, and SBC, it was found that the VARMA (2.2) -GARCH (1.1) model is the best one for the data in this study. The model VARMA(2,2)-GARCH (1,1) is then written as a univariate model. For the univariate ADRO model, the test statistics F = 4,73 and P-value = 0,0084, which indicates the model is very significant; and for the univariate ITMG model, the test statistics is F = 5,82 and P-value 0,0001, which indicates the model is significant. Based on the best model selected, the impulse response, Granger causality test, and forecasting for the next 12 periods are discussed.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis on Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 214-218
Author(s):  
Md Shafiul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
External Finance ◽  
The Relationship

In Bangladesh, migrant worker’s remittances constitute one of the most significant sources of external finance. This paper investigates the existence of relation between remittance inflow and GDP and the causal link between them in Bangladesh by employing the Granger causality test under a VECM framework. Using time series data over a 38 year period, we found that growth in remittances does lead to economic growth in Bangladesh. In addition to the relationship, this paper also points out some issues that are working as impediments in getting remittance and give some recommendations to overcome those impediments.

Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) di Indonesia Tahun 2002-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Magdalena Magdalena
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Previous Period ◽  
Var Analysis

This study aimed to analyze the macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate and interest rate in effect on the market price of the property and real estate in Indonesia (IHPR) during the years 2002-2013. Through the application of e-views, the causal relationship was found in time series data. VAR analysis and Granger Causality Test did not find any relationship between SBI and IHPR. However SBI affects EXCHANGE positively, and EXCHANGE affects IHPR. Every 1 point weakening of IDR in the previous period, assuming the IDR in the two previous periods fixed, the IHPR in year-t will increase by 0.004003 points. If IDR in two previous periods depreciated by 1 point with the assumption that the IDR at the previous period remains, then IHPR in year-t will increase by 0.007219 points. Keywords: SBI interest rates, IDR exchange rates, price of property, VAR, Granger Causality Test

Estimating the key determinants of foreign direct investment flows in Pakistan: new insights into the co-integration relationship

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hummera Saleem ◽  
Malik Shahzad Shabbir ◽  
Bilal Khan ◽  
Shahab Aziz ◽  
Maizaitulaidawati Md Husin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Main Determinants

PurposeThis empirical analysis tries to examine determinants of private foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan using the bounds test approach. Main determinants of FDI among them are the size of the market (Q) macroeconomic stability (r), political stability (PRS), real exchange rate (REX) and institutional quality (INQ).Design/methodology/approachThis study used annual time-series data set starting from 1980 to 2016. This study has used time-series data with ARDL and error-correction model (ECM) and examined main determinants of FDI for Pakistan. The study used the Granger causality test (modified WALD test) to identify the causality among the variables.FindingsMoreover, empirical findings indicate the long-run relationship between GDP, trade openness and institutional quality toward FDI. However, political instability, inflation and real exchange rate harm FDI in Pakistan. Furthermore, results of Granger causality indicate that the bidirectional causality running from FDI and Q toward FDI is significant, providing evidence of FDI-led growth hypotheses in Pakistan. This study determines the correlation between FDI and Q (GDP growth) related to the “feedback hypothesis” in the short and long run. This study also concludes that the short-run causal connection among FDI, REX, PRS, r and Q follows the “feedback hypothesis.” This describes that FDI, REX, PRS, r and Q variables are jointly determined and affected together.Originality/valueThis study also explores the causal association between FDI and its significant determinants, by using methods of Granger causality test and the approach of Toda-Yamamoto-DoladoLutkephol (TYDL) to examine the causal relationship and its directions among these variables.

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