scholarly journals DATA-MODEL COMPARISONS OF STORM PROCESSES DURING HURRICANE HARVEY

2020 ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Katherine Anarde ◽  
Jens Figlus ◽  
Wei Cheng ◽  
Juan Horrillo ◽  
Marion Tissier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Barrier Islands ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Meteorological Observations

During tropical cyclones, processes including dune erosion, overwash, inundation, and storm-surge ebb can rapidly reshape barrier islands, thereby increasing coastal hazards and flood exposure inland. Relatively few measurements are available to evaluate the physical processes shaping coastal systems close to shore during these extreme events as it is inherently challenging to obtain reliable field data due to energetic waves and rapid bed level changes which can damage or shift instrumentation. However, such observations are critical toward improving and validating model forecasts of coastal storm hazards. To address these data and knowledge gaps, this study links hydrodynamic and meteorological observations with numerical modeling to 1) perform data-model inter-comparisons of relevant storm processes, namely infragravity (IG) waves, storm surge, and meteotsunamis; and 2) better understand the relative importance of each of these processes during hurricane impact.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/kUizy8nK3TU

scholarly journals EVALUATING THE CAPACITY OF NATURAL AND NATURE-BASED FEATURES TO REDUCE COASTAL STORM HAZARDS

2018 ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Bret Webb ◽  
Steven Scyphers ◽  
Just Cebrian ◽  
Rachel Gittman ◽  
Shailesh Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Aquatic Vegetation ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Barrier Islands ◽  
Wave Action ◽  
Coastal Hazards

This presentation and paper describes the capacity of natural and nature-based features (NNBF) to reduce coastal storm hazards. Through a synthesis of existing literature and studies, as well as meta-analysis and traditional data analysis where possible, the salient characteristics and capabilities of NNBF at reducing storm surge, wave action, and erosion are characterized. The research specifically focuses on the capacity of aquatic vegetation, oyster and coral reefs, beaches, dunes, maritime forests, and barrier islands to reduce and/or mitigate these coastal hazards.

scholarly journals Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Kees Nederhoff ◽  
Sofia Caires
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Frequency ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract. Deriving reliable estimates of design water levels and wave conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenging problem of high relevance for, among others, coastal and offshore engineering projects and risk assessment studies. Tropical cyclone geometry and wind speeds have been recorded for the past few decades only, therefore resulting in poorly reliable estimates of the extremes, especially at regions characterized by a low number of past tropical cyclone events. In this paper, this challenge is overcome by using synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and wind fields generated by the open source tool TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation), to create thousands of realizations representative for 1,000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. Each of these realizations is used to force coupled storm surge and wave simulations by means of the processed-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite. It is shown that the use of synthetic tracks provides reliable estimates of the statistics of the first-order hazard (i.e. wind speed) compared to the statistics derived for historical tropical cyclones. Based on estimated wind fields, second-order hazards (i.e. storm surge and waves) are computed. The estimates of the extreme values derived for wind speed, wave height and storm surge are shown to converge within the 1,000 years of simulated cyclone tracks. Comparing second-order hazard estimates based on historical and synthetic tracks show that, for this case study, the use of historical tracks (a deterministic approach) leads to an underestimation of the mean computed storm surge up to −30 %. Differences between the use of synthetic versus historical tracks are characterized by a large spatial variability along the Bay of Bengal, where regions with a lower probability of occurrence of tropical cyclones show the largest difference in predicted storm surge and wave heights. In addition, the use of historical tracks leads to much larger uncertainty bands in the estimation of both storm surges and wave heights, with confidence intervals being +80 % larger compared to those estimated by using synthetic tracks (probabilistic approach). Based on the same tropical cyclone realizations, the effect that changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, possibly resulting from climate change, may have on modelled storm surge and wave heights were computed. An increase in tropical cyclone frequency of +25.6 % and wind intensity of +1.6 %, based on literature values, could result in an increase of storm surge and wave heights of +11 % and +9 % respectively. This suggest that climate change could increase tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards more than just the actual increase in maximum wind speeds.

scholarly journals Coastal Forecasts and Storm Surge Predictions for Tropical Cyclones: A Timely Partnership Program

Oceanography ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Graber ◽  
Vincent Cardone ◽  
Robert Jensen ◽  
Donald Slinn ◽  
Scott Hagen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Partnership Program

scholarly journals IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL HAZARDS DUE TO WINTER CYCLONE AROUND JAPAN USING LARGE ENSEMBLE DATABASE

2018 ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Junichi Ninomiya ◽  
Yuya Taka ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Hazard

IPCC AR5 reported that the extreme events like tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and so on will be strengthen. The winter cyclone is one of the cause of coastal hazard. The winter cyclone is defined as the extratropical depression with rapid development. It causes high wave and storm surge from winter to spring, and Japan sometimes have casualties and economical loss. Some researches reported that the number of winter cyclone tend to increase. Because its tendency seems to go on, future change estimation of winter cyclone activity is important for disaster reduction. Understanding of winter cyclone is developing. For example, Yoshida and Asuma showed that the winter cyclones are classified by their track and the development of winter cyclone is related to lateral heat flux. On the other hand, almost of all researches of impact assessment on coastal hazard focus on the tropical cyclone. Mori et al. showed the maximum potential storm surge in Japan using maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclone and GCM outputs, and large storm surge will increase. Shimura et al. showed that extreme wave caused by the tropical cyclone will develop at offshore region of east from Japan. This research aims to reveal stochastic future change of winter cyclone using the database for policy decision making for future climate change (after here, d4PDF) which is huge ensemble dataset of present- and futureclimate. Then, the risk of coastal hazard will be evaluate.

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 105 (1) ◽  
pp. 431-459
Author(s):  
Pablo Ruiz-Salcines ◽  
Christian M. Appendini ◽  
Paulo Salles ◽  
Wilmer Rey ◽  
Jonathan L. Vigh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge

scholarly journals Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1007-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Job C. M. Dullaart ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Nadia Bloemendaal ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Surge Height

Abstract This study examines the implications of recent advances in global climate modelling for simulating storm surges. Following the ERA-Interim (0.75° × 0.75°) global climate reanalysis, in 2018 the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts released its successor, the ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis. Using the Global Tide and Surge Model, we analyse eight historical storm surge events driven by tropical—and extra-tropical cyclones. For these events we extract wind fields from the two reanalysis datasets and compare these against satellite-based wind field observations from the Advanced SCATterometer. The root mean squared errors in tropical cyclone wind speed reduce by 58% in ERA5, compared to ERA-Interim, indicating that the mean sea-level pressure and corresponding strong 10-m winds in tropical cyclones greatly improved from ERA-Interim to ERA5. For four of the eight historical events we validate the modelled storm surge heights with tide gauge observations. For Hurricane Irma, the modelled surge height increases from 0.88 m with ERA-Interim to 2.68 m with ERA5, compared to an observed surge height of 2.64 m. We also examine how future advances in climate modelling can potentially further improve global storm surge modelling by comparing the results for ERA-Interim and ERA5 against the operational Integrated Forecasting System (0.125° × 0.125°). We find that a further increase in model resolution results in a better representation of the wind fields and associated storm surges, especially for small size tropical cyclones. Overall, our results show that recent advances in global climate modelling have the potential to increase the accuracy of early-warning systems and coastal flood hazard assessments at the global scale.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

The Global Long-term Effects of Storm Surge Damages on Human Settlements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Kunze
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Human Settlements ◽  
Combining Data

<p>The influence of natural conditions on human settlements are immense. While a friendly and calm environment can lead to prosperity and growth, a hostile one with frequent natural disasters can result in stagnation, collapse, and even death. Tropical cyclones, as an unpredictable and recurring disastrous events, pose a considerable threat to prosperous development of human societies. The IPCC estimates that globally around 250 million people are vulnerable to storm surge events every year. If the threat is too large, a natural adaptation strategy would seem to move away to less dangerous places. It thus can be considered puzzling that there is a positive trend of moving to coastal flooding zones in Sub-Saharan Africa, North America and Asia, and this is projected to continue in the future. Additionally, climate change may increase the local exposure to storm surge by rising sea levels and changing intensity of tropical cyclones.</p><p>Given this worrisome development, a systematic analysis of the relationship between settlement structures and tropical cyclones is called for. In this paper we analyze whether people relocate from hazardous areas impacted by tropical cyclones. Importantly, the greatest threat from a tropical cyclone is generally due to the accompanying storm surge. But, because storm surge levels are hard to model, as of date no global (economic) impact study has attempted to model or used historic storm surge data to estimate the economic impact of tropical storms. Rather most studies only focus on wind damages, while other also include rain damages. Within this paper, we are closing this gap by explicitly modeling historic storm surge data worldwide from 1850-2015 and linking this to local population settlement. </p><p>By combining data on bathymetry, tidal cycles, weather conditions, and  pressure drop models for the tropical cyclones we are able to estimate spatial storm surge data at a resolution of 5 arc minutes. This data then allows us, in a first step, to analyze its systematic impact on historical geo-referenced population and settlement structure data at a spatial scale of 5 arc minutes. We are able to show some interesting population patterns in response to tropical cyclones. Contrary to many empirical studies, we find that people do settle away from hazardous areas. This effect is especially large for low elevation coastal zones, while for non low elevation coastal areas we find no effect. The same pattern can be found for developing and developed countries, but the shrinking of the population is 39 percent larger in developing countries. </p>

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