scholarly journals Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1007-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Job C. M. Dullaart ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Nadia Bloemendaal ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Surge Height

Abstract This study examines the implications of recent advances in global climate modelling for simulating storm surges. Following the ERA-Interim (0.75° × 0.75°) global climate reanalysis, in 2018 the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts released its successor, the ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis. Using the Global Tide and Surge Model, we analyse eight historical storm surge events driven by tropical—and extra-tropical cyclones. For these events we extract wind fields from the two reanalysis datasets and compare these against satellite-based wind field observations from the Advanced SCATterometer. The root mean squared errors in tropical cyclone wind speed reduce by 58% in ERA5, compared to ERA-Interim, indicating that the mean sea-level pressure and corresponding strong 10-m winds in tropical cyclones greatly improved from ERA-Interim to ERA5. For four of the eight historical events we validate the modelled storm surge heights with tide gauge observations. For Hurricane Irma, the modelled surge height increases from 0.88 m with ERA-Interim to 2.68 m with ERA5, compared to an observed surge height of 2.64 m. We also examine how future advances in climate modelling can potentially further improve global storm surge modelling by comparing the results for ERA-Interim and ERA5 against the operational Integrated Forecasting System (0.125° × 0.125°). We find that a further increase in model resolution results in a better representation of the wind fields and associated storm surges, especially for small size tropical cyclones. Overall, our results show that recent advances in global climate modelling have the potential to increase the accuracy of early-warning systems and coastal flood hazard assessments at the global scale.

scholarly journals Modeling Storm Surge Attenuation by an Integrated Nature-Based and Engineered Flood Defense System in the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Sven Smolders ◽  
Maria João Teles ◽  
Agnès Leroy ◽  
Tatiana Maximova ◽  
Patrick Meire ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Scheldt Estuary ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Defense System ◽  
Height Reduction ◽  
Flood Defense ◽  
Physical Scale ◽  
Surge Height

There is increasing interest in the use of nature-based approaches for mitigation of storm surges along coasts, deltas, and estuaries. However, very few studies have quantified the effectiveness of storm surge height reduction by a real-existing, estuarine-scale, nature-based, and engineered flood defense system, under specific storm surge conditions. Here, we present data and modelling results from a specific storm surge in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium), where a hybrid flood defense system is implemented, consisting of flood control areas, of which some are restored into tidal marsh ecosystems, by use of culvert constructions that allow daily reduced tidal in- and outflow. We present a hindcast simulation of the storm surge of 6 December 2013, using a TELEMAC-3D model of the Scheldt estuary, and model scenarios showing that the hybrid flood defense system resulted in a storm surge height reduction of up to half a meter in the estuary. An important aspect of the work was the implementation of model formulations for calculating flow through culverts of restored marshes. The latter was validated comparing simulated and measured discharges through a physical scale model of a culvert, and through a real-scale culvert of an existing restored marsh during the storm surge.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Organic aerosol and global climate modelling: a review

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1053-1123 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kanakidou ◽  
J. H. Seinfeld ◽  
S. N. Pandis ◽  
I. Barnes ◽  
F. J. Dentener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Organic Aerosol ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Carbonaceous Particles ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Removal Processes ◽  
Wet Removal

Abstract. The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.

scholarly journals Imaging spectroscopy as a quantative tool for the retrieval of biogeophysical parameters

2003 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schaepman ◽  
K. I. Itten ◽  
M. Rast
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Community ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Imaging Spectroscopy ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Imaging Spectrometer ◽  
New Instrumentation ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Airborne Imaging

Abstract. Representing the dynamic character of Vegetation in global climate modelling is a challenging task. We present a new Instrumentation approach in the form of APEX, an airborne imaging spectrometer to address the key variables and processes relevant for monitoring the biogeophysical and biochemical parameters at the local, regional and national scale. We are able to demonstrate that a large number of relevant processes and variables have been monitored successfully using imaging spectrometers. In particular, the accuracy of the variable retrieval using this observational approach has much improved and the quantification of the interaction of the radiation field with Vegetation has been made possible. The airborne instrument APEX will be made available to the scientific Community in early 2005, whereas it's space successor SPECTRA is scheduled for launch in 2008. The inclusion of the spectro-directional and thermal components will contribute toward minimizing retrieval uncertainties. Until these instruments are introduced into the market, there is enough time to develop the necessary products and to inform the scientific Community about the new possibilities.

scholarly journals Study on Storm Surge Using Parametric Model with Geographical Characteristics

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2251
Author(s):  
Yeon-joong Kim ◽  
Tea-woo Kim ◽  
Jong-sung Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Geographical Characteristics

The coastal area of Japan has been damaged yearly by storm surges and flooding disasters in the past, including those associated with typhoons. In addition, the scale of damage is increasing rapidly due to the changing global climate and environment. As disasters due to storm surges become increasingly unpredictable, more measures should be taken to prevent serious damage and casualties. The Japanese government published a hazard map manual in 2015 and obligates the creation of a hazard map based on a parametric model as a measure to reduce high-scale storm surges. Parametric model (typhoon model) accounting for the topographical influences of the surroundings is essential for calculating the wind field of a typhoon. In particular, it is necessary to calculate the wind field using a parametric model in order to simulate a virtual typhoon (the largest typhoon) and to improve the reproducibility. Therefore, in this study, the aim was to establish a hazard map by assuming storm surges of the largest scale and to propose a parametric model that considers the changing shape of typhoons due to topography. The main objectives of this study were to analyze the characteristics of typhoons due to pass through Japan, to develop a parametric model using a combination of Holland’s and Myers’s models that is appropriate for the largest scale of typhoon, and to analyze the parameters of Holland’s model using grid point values (GPVs). Finally, we aimed to propose a method that considers the changing shape of typhoons due to topography. The modeling outcomes of tide levels and storm surge heights show that the reproduced results obtained by the analysis method proposed in this study are more accurate than those obtained using GPVs. In addition, the reproducibility of the proposed model was evaluated showing the high and excellent reproducibility of storm surge height according to the geographic characteristics.

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Generated Waves; Case studies of Irma, Maria and Dorian

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Pamela Probst ◽  
Bora Yalciner ◽  
Alessandro Annunziato ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean

<p>Tropical cyclones can be considered one type of extreme event, with their destructive winds, torrential rainfall and storm surge. Every year these natural phenomena affect millions of people around the world, leaving a trail of destruction in several countries, especially along the coastal areas. Only in 2017, two devastating major hurricanes (Irma and Maria) moved across the Caribbean and south-eastern USA, causing extensive damage and deaths. Irma formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on 30 August 2017 and moved towards the Caribbean islands during the following week, significantly strengthening, becoming a Category 5 Hurricane. It caused wide-ranging impacts such as significant storm surge (up to 3m according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA report) to several islands in the Caribbean and Florida. On the second half of September, 2017, another strong Category 5 Hurricane named Maria formed over the Atlantic and moved west towards the Caribbean Sea. Maria also caused several impacts and severe damage in Caribbean Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to high speed winds, rainfall, flooding and storm surge with a maximum runup of 3.7 m (US NOAA) on the southern tip of Dominica Island. The most recent devastating event for the Atlantic is Hurricane Dorian. It formed on August 24, 2019 over the Atlantic Ocean and it moved towards the Caribbean islands, as getting stronger as moving, becoming a Category 5 before reaching the Bahamas, where it left a trail of destruction after its passage. The major effect of Dorian was on north-western Bahamas with very strong winds, heavy rainfall and a large storm surge.</p><p>In this context, a rapid and reliable modeling of storm surge generated by such kind of events is essential for many purposes such as early accurate assessment of the situation, forecasting, estimation of potential impact in coastal areas, and operational issues like emergency management.</p><p>A numerical model, NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS (Tsunami-Storm Surge) is developed building up on tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE GPU version to solve nonlinear shallow water equations, using the pressure and wind fields as inputs to compute spatial and temporal distribution of water level throughout the study domain and respective inundation related to tropical cyclones, based on the equations used in the HyFlux2 Code developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The code provides a rapid calculation since it is structured for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) using CUDA API.</p><p>NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS has been applied to many cases as regular shaped basins under circular static and dynamic pressure fields separately and also different wind fields for validation together with combinations of pressure and wind fields. This study has been conducted to investigate the potential of numerical modeling of tropical cyclone generated storm surge based on recent events Irma, Maria and Dorian. The results are presented and discussed based on comparison with the measurements and observations. The study shows promise for developing a cyclone modeling capability based on available measurement and observational data.</p>

Compound impact of rainfall, tidal level and storm surge on flood risk from tropical cyclones in the coastal area of shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

<p>Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme tropical cyclones has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms surge. In coastal areas, floods caused by rainstorms and storm surges have been one of the most costly and devastating natural hazards in coastal regions. Extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. Usually, extreme events such as tidal level, storm surges, precipitation occur jointly, leading to compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of multiple drivers to compound flooding in shanghai. The Wind Enhance Scheme (WES) model characterized by Holland model is devised to generate wind "spiderweb" both for historical (1949-2018) and future (2031-2060, 2069-2098) tropical cyclones. The tidal level and storm surge model based on Delft3D-FLOW is employed with an unstructured grid to simulate the change of water level. For precipitation, maximum value between tropical cyclone events is selected. Following this, multivariate Copula model would be employed to compare the change of joint probability between tidal level, storm surge and heavy precipitation under climate change, taking into account sea-level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the impact of tropical cyclone on the joint risk of tidal, storm surge and heavy precipitation is investigated. </p>

2. The climate change debate

2014 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
Mark Maslin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Climate Change Science ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Past Climate Change

‘The climate change debate’ describes the combination of factors that led to recognition and acceptance of climate change, including that it was anthropogenic, beginning with climate change science research carried out in the 1950s and early 1960s. The next stages of research into this area came later in the 1980s: the observed upturn in the global temperature data set; the increased knowledge of past climate change; significant advances in global climate modelling; the emergence of global environmental awareness; increased media interest in the confrontational nature of the debate; and finally politicians and economists taking the climate change threat seriously since the late 1990s.

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