Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century

Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Dynamics and Predictability of Hemispheric-Scale Multidecadal Climate Variability in an Observationally Constrained Mechanistic Model

This paper addresses the dynamics of internal hemispheric-scale multidecadal climate variability by postulating an energy-balance (EBM) model comprising two deep-ocean oscillators in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, coupled through their surface mixed layers via atmospheric teleconnections. This system is linear and driven by the atmospheric noise. Two sets of the EBM model parameters are developed by fitting the EBM-based mixed-layer temperature covariance structure to best mimic basin-average North Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) covariability in either observations or control simulations of comprehensive climate models within the CMIP5 project. The differences between the dynamics underlying the observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability and predictability are encapsulated in the algebraic structure of the two EBM model versions so obtained: EBMCMIP5 and EBMOBS. The multidecadal variability in EBMCMIP5 is overall weaker and amounts to a smaller fraction of the total SST variability than in EBMOBS, pointing to a lower potential decadal predictability of virtual CMIP5 climates relative to that of the actual climate. The EBMCMIP5 decadal hemispheric teleconnections (and, by inference, those in CMIP5 models) are largely controlled by the variability of the Pacific, in which the ocean, due to its large thermal and dynamical memory, acts as a passive integrator of atmospheric noise. By contrast, EBMOBS features a stronger two-way coupling between the Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillators, thereby suggesting the existence of a hemispheric-scale and, perhaps, global multidecadal mode associated with internal ocean dynamics. The inferred differences between the observed and CMIP5 simulated climate variability stem from a stronger communication between the deep ocean and surface processes implicit in the observational data.

Multidecadal Climate Variability and the Florescence of Fremont Societies in Eastern Utah

Fremont societies of the Uinta Basin incorporated domesticates into a foraging lifeway over a 1,000-year period from AD 300 to 1300. Fremont research provides a unique opportunity to critically examine the social and ecological processes behind the adoption and abandonment of domesticates by hunter-gatherers. We develop and integrate a 2,115-year precipitation reconstruction with a Bayesian chronological model for the growth of Fremont societies in the Cub Creek reach of Dinosaur National Monument. Comparison of the archaeological chronology with the precipitation record suggests that the florescence of Fremont societies was an adaptation to multidecadal precipitation variability with an approximately 30-plus-year periodicity over most, but not all, of the last 2,115 years. Fremont societies adopted domesticates to enhance their resilience to periodic droughts. We propose that reduced precipitation variability from AD 750 to AD 1050, superimposed over consistent mean precipitation availability, was the tipping point that increased maize production, initiated agricultural intensification, and resulted in increased population and development of pithouse communities. Our study develops a multidecadal/multigenerational model within which to evaluate the strategies underwriting the adoption of domesticates by foragers, the formation of Fremont communities, and the inherent vulnerabilities to resource intensification that implicate the eventual dissolution of those communities.