Factors Affecting Sexual Assault Case Processing: Charging Through Sentencing in a Large Southern County

Factors affecting prosecutorial decision-making represent one of the most understudied parts of the criminal justice system. Documenting these influences in relation to sexual assault cases is even more rare. The present study analyzed the complete prosecutorial case files of a large, southern district attorney’s office regarding all adult sexual assault cases received over a three-year period. Logistic regression and continuation ratio modeling were used to determine which factors were related to continued progression through the court system, from charging to sentencing. The findings indicate that cases with older or Latino defendants, as well as cases involving injury to the victim, were significantly more likely to be charged. A continuation ratio model of subsequent case outcomes indicated that factors such as DNA evidence, the use of a weapon, and the inclusion of a victim impact statement increased the likelihood of a case progressing to later stages of the system. The influence of criminal history and the amount of prosecutor contact with the victim, however, varied across outcomes. Namely, criminal history increased the odds of receiving a prison sentence while prosecutor contacts with the victim increased the odds of case indictment. These findings imply potential shifts in the treatment of these cases while also suggesting areas of improvement. Namely, prosecutors should strive to increase the amount of meaningful contacts with victims and encourage their participation in the court process. These findings also support the use of sexual assault packets by law enforcement to improve and standardize reporting practices for these cases.

Improved estimation of age composition by accounting for spatiotemporal variability in somatic growth

Age composition is defined as the proportion of a fish population belonging to each age class and is an informative input to stock assessment models. Variations in somatic growth rates may lead to larger errors in age composition estimates. To reduce this source of error, we compared the performance of four methods for estimating age compositions of a simulated fish population: two methods based on age–length keys (ALK, pooled and annual) and two model-based approaches (generalized additive models (GAMs) and continuation ratio logits (CRLs)). CRL was the most robust and precise method, followed by annual ALKs, particularly when significant growth variability was present. We applied these methods to survey age subsample data for Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea, estimating age compositions that were then incorporated in its stock assessment model. The model that included age compositions estimated by CRL displayed the highest consistency with other data in the model. CRL approach has utility for estimating age compositions employed in stock assessment models, especially when substantial variation in somatic growth is present.

Forward and Backward Continuation Ratio Models for Ordinal Response Variables

There are different types of continuation ratio (CR) models for ordinal response variables. The different model equations, corresponding parameterizations, and nonequivalent results are confusing. The purpose of this study is to introduce different types of forward and backward CR models, demonstrate how to implement these models using Stata, and compare the results using data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002).

Aplicación de modelos de elección discreta regularizados para el análisis de los determinantes del consumo cultural en Colombia: el caso de los bienes del patrimonio cultural

Resumen En este artículo se analizan los determinantes de la asistencia y frecuencia de asistencia a museos y sitios de interés histórico en Colombia, utilizando los datos de la Encuesta de Consumo Cultural aplicada por el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística en 2014. Los modelos de regresión logística y el Continuation Ratio Model regularizados que se estiman permiten identificar automáticamente las variables relevantes para explicar las decisiones de consumo cultural, al tiempo que solucionan los problemas estadísticos asociados a la existencia de un número alto de variables explicativas, como es el caso de la inestabilidad de los estimadores, correlaciones espurias, multicolinealidad incidental y endogeneidad incidental, entre otros. Los resultados indican que la acumulación de capital cultural es el principal determinante del consumo cultural, validando así el cumplimiento del enfoque de la adicción racional en el contexto colombiano.

Gencrm: A New Command for Generalized Continuation-Ratio Models

A continuation-ratio model represents a variant of an ordered regression model that is suited to modeling processes that unfold in stages, particularly those in which a return to a previous stage is not possible (for example, educational attainment, job promotion, or disease progression). The parameters for covariates in continuation-ratio models may be constrained to be equal, vary by a set of common factors (that is, proportionality constraints), or freely vary across stages. Currently, there are three community-contributed commands that fit continuation-ratio models. Each of these commands fits some subset of continuation-ratio models involving parameter constraints, but none of them offer complete coverage of the range of possibilities. The new gencrm command expands the options for continuation-ratio models to include the possibility for some of or all the covariates to be constrained to be equal, to freely vary, or to vary by a set of common factors across stages. gencrm relies on Stata's maximum likelihood routines for estimation and avoids reshaping the data. gencrm includes options for three link functions (logit, probit, and cloglog) and supports Stata's multiple-imputation suites of commands.

Radiomics features of ground glass nodules tailored different pathological grades of lung adenocarcinoma.

e23127 Background: Different pathological subtypes as well as different grades of adenocarcinoma based on the IASLC/ATS/ERS classification had been proven to be stage-independent predictor of survival. Radiomics features, as a novel analytic method, has been increasingly applied in variety cancer research and may be a potential predictor for preoperatively differentiating pathological grades of adenocarcinoma. Methods: Patients (pts) with radiological proved as solitary ground glass nodule were eligible in this study. Radiomics features derived from computed tomography (CT) images were extracted by Chinese Academy of Science. All pts will be categorized into three groups with lepidic predominance as low-grade, acinar and papillary predominance as intermediate-grade, micropapillary and solid predominance as high-grade. We used L1 penalized constrained continuation ratio model to select relevant radiomics features, and corresponding radiomics signature was constructed. Association between the radiomics signature and pathological grades of adenocarcinoma was explored using the Kruskal-Wallis test and C-index was performed to test the efficacy of differentiating. Results: 82 pts were included in this study. Low-grade, intermediate-grade and high-grade contained 15 (18.3%), 53 (64.6%), 14 (17.1%) pts respectively. 475 radiomics features were extracted from thin section CT image and 10 of them selected through L1 penalized constrained continuation ratio model composed radiomics signature which significantly associated with pathological grades (P < 0.0001). C-index for radiomics signature were 0.813 (95%CI 0.793-0.833). Since clinical characters including gender, age, smoking status, NSE, CEA and CYFRA21-1 were not associated with different grades of adenocarcinoma, we could not establish nomogram based on the radiomics signature and correlated clinical characters. Conclusions: Radiomics features only can be a potential predictor for preoperatively differentiating pathological grades of adenocarcinoma, which may be a more applicable clinical predictor for patients’ survival. Yet large sample sizes are warranted to confirm the results.

WIDENING ACCESS IS THE END OF STORY? ENSURING EQUAL ACCESS AND IMPROVING CONTINUATION RATIO OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN INDONESIA

In the last two decades, Indonesian higher education system has expanded rapidly in regards to the number of new established institutions and the number of students enrolled in higher education. However, the participation rate within university level is stated as low. In 2016, it only reached 31 percent. It means, although massification has been implemented within higher education system, it is not in line in ensuring equal access to pupils from disadvantaged social groups such as women, lower socio-economic statuses, and students from outer or periphery areas. Rather, it has been evident as a daunting task. Widening participation is not the end of story, since Indonesia should be dealing with another problem which is non-continuation. By performing secondary analysis on several datasets released by World Bank, Indonesian Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education, and Indonesian Statistics Bureau, this paper explores several major findings on accessibility and retention problem of Indonesian higher education.

Developing Empirically Informed Policies for Sexual Assault Kit DNA Testing: Is It Too Late to Test Kits Beyond the Statute of Limitations?

A growing body of research indicates that there are thousands of sexual assault kits (SAKs) in police property storage facilities that have never been submitted for DNA forensic testing. Some of these rape kits may be quite dated, and the statute of limitations (SOL) for prosecution of the case may have expired. Whether testing such kits could still provide useful information for criminal justice system personnel is unknown. To address this gap in the literature and to inform policy regarding rape kit testing, we randomly sampled 700 previously untested SAKs from Detroit, MI: 350 were presumed to be beyond the SOL for prosecution (based on the date the SAK was collected), and 350 were still within the SOL. All SAKs were submitted for DNA testing, and then we quantified and compared the forensic testing outcomes. At issue was whether these older SAKs would yield DNA profiles that were eligible for entry into Combined DNA Index System (CODIS), the federal DNA forensic database, and whether these profiles would match (“hit”) to other criminal offenses catalogued in CODIS. Rates for presumed SOL-expired SAKs and unexpired SAKs were compared via a continuation-ratio model and equivalence tests. The rates of CODIS-eligible DNA profiles, CODIS hits, and serial sexual assault CODIS hits were statistically equivalent in the SOL-expired and SOL-unexpired groups. Testing older SAKs has potential utility to the criminal justice system because these kits produced DNA matches to other crimes, including other sexual assault crimes, at a rate equivalent to current, SOL-unexpired SAKs.