Hit and miss: a comparison of targeted and randomised roadside drug testing (RDT)

PurposeThis study first aimed to investigate the differences in drug driver detection rates between a trial of randomised and targeted enforcement operations. The second aim was to identify which indicator categories are most commonly used by police to target drug drivers and to assess the effectiveness of targeted drug testing. Finally, this study aimed to quantify what specific indicators and cues (of the overarching categories) triggered their decision to drug test drivers and which indicators were most successful.Design/methodology/approachThis research examined the detection rates in a trial comparison of randomised and targeted roadside drug testing (RDT) operations as well as the methods utilised by police in the targeted operations to identify potential drug driving offenders.FindingsVisual appearance was by far the most commonly utilised indicator followed by age, police intelligence on prior charges, vehicle appearance and behavioural cues. However, the use of police intelligence was identified as the most successful indicator that correlated with positive oral fluid testing results. During the randomised RDT operations, 3.4% of all drivers who were tested yielded a positive roadside oral fluid result compared to 25.5% during targeted RDT operations.Research limitations/implicationsThe targeted RDT approach, while determined to be an effective detection methodology, limits the overall deterrent effect of roadside testing in a more general driving population, and the need for a balanced approach to ensure detection and deterrence is required. This study highlights that by focussing on night times for randomised RDT operations and the identified effective indicators for targeted operations, an effective balance of deterrence and detection could be achieved.Practical implicationsWhile the presence of a single indicator is not indicative of a drug driver, this study highlights for police which indicators currently used are more effective at detecting a drug driver. As a result, police could adapt current RDT procedures to focus on the presence of these indicators to support drug driver detection.Originality/valueThis is a world-first study that examines both randomised and targeted roadside drug testing. This study controls for location and time of day while using the same police unit for roadside testing, thus is able to make direct comparisons between the two methodologies to determine the effectiveness of police targeting for roadside drug testing. Furthermore, this study highlights which indicators used by police results in the highest rate of positive roadside drug tests.

Tax Amnesties in Tax Reform Policy: A Case Study from Pakistan and Lessons for Developing Economies

An optimally designed tax amnesty scheme can serve as a strategic component in a larger tax reform process. Such a reform can particularly assist in the tax collection efforts of developing economies like Pakistan. Pakistan’s tax amnesty schemes in 2018 and 2019 helped grow the tax base substantially. India’s and Indonesia’s schemes in 2016 also showed promise. My study compares the recent tax amnesties adopted by these three countries (Pakistan, India and Indonesia). Based on these experiences, I propose improvements in the composition of Pakistan’s tax amnesty design. An optimal tax policy cannot rely only on wide-spread enforcement, particularly in countries with large underground economies--like Pakistan, India and Indonesia. Instead, it should focus more on the optimal amnesty design alongside targeted enforcement efforts, aimed especially at documenting and taxing large underground economic activities.

An exploratory network analysis of hot people and places

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests police can be more effective in addressing crime and disorder when they focus on hot people and/or hot places -- those people and places disproportionately driving crime and disorder. I examine the connections between hot people and hot places by considering micro places (street segments and intersections) and people as nodes in an interconnected network. Specifically, I examine whether hot people tend to have a finite set of locations they congregate, and whether hot places have unique profiles of chronic offenders. The end goal is to identify if observed patterns can help police combine targeted enforcement of hot people and hot places in one overarching strategy.

Tobacco Advertising and ID Checks in Columbus, Ohio, in Advance of Tobacco 21

Purpose: In autumn 2017, Columbus, Ohio, joined numerous other US locations in raising their legal sales age for purchasing tobacco to 21 (ie, becoming “T21”). The present study sought to establish a baseline for ID checks in Columbus prior to T21 enforcement and to examine whether store type and marketing were associated with better rates of ID checks. Design: Fieldworkers aged 20 to 21 years visited a random sample of 110 tobacco retailers during summer 2017 (drawn from >10 000 licensed retailers in the county). After collecting store-related information, they attempted to purchase cigarettes and recorded whether their ID was checked (federal law requires ID checks for anyone who looks younger than 27 years). Setting: Columbus, Ohio. Measures: Store type, external tobacco advertising, and ID check outcome. Analysis: Descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: Among stores where cigarettes were purchased, 61.1% did not conduct ID checks. Absent ID checks were associated with the store being a convenience store or tobacco shop, χ2(2) = 4.45, P = .035, and having a greater amount of external advertising, t(93) = 2.00, P = .049. Conclusion: Overall, the low rate of ID checks for young adults purchasing tobacco in Columbus is concerning. Continued monitoring of retailer compliance will be important as retailers adjust to the arrival of T21. Targeted enforcement and additional outreach with tobacco shops, convenience stores, and stores with a high amount of external advertising may be particularly needed.

An Analysis of Economic Warfare

I develop a framework for assessing economic warfare, which describes efforts to undermine adversaries' sources of income. The ability to target adversarial market participants is a primary determinant of the success of such efforts, as is the elasticity of demand in the relevant market. An application of the framework to US efforts to suppress the Afghan opium trade yields pessimistic results. Inelastic demand and poorly targeted enforcement have led these efforts to increase the drug trade resources flowing toward the Taliban.