Tropical origins of Weeks 2-4 forecasts errors during Northern Hemisphere cool season

A set of 30-day reforecast experiments, focused on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cool season (November–March), is performed to quantify the remote impacts of tropical forecast errors on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS). The approach is to nudge the model towards reanalyses in the tropics and then measure the change in skill at higher latitudes as function of lead time. In agreement with previous analogous studies, results show that midlatitude predictions tend to be improved in association with reducing tropical forecast errors during weeks 2-4, particularly over the North Pacific and western North America, where gains in subseasonal precipitation anomaly pattern correlations are substantial. It is also found that tropical nudging is more effective at improving NH subseasonal predictions in cases where skill is relatively low in the control reforecast, whereas it tends to improve less cases that are already relatively skillful. By testing various tropical nudging configurations, it is shown that tropical circulation errors play a primary role in the remote modulation of predictive skill. A time dependent analysis suggests a roughly one week lag between a decrease in tropical errors and an increase in NH predictive skill. A combined tropical nudging and conditional skill analysis indicates that improved Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) predictions throughout its lifecycle could improve weeks 3-4 NH precipitation predictions.

Cultural Implication of Jiarong Tibetan Brocade Belt

Based on the on-the-spot investigation, interviews with craftsmen and craftsmen, as well as collection of historical documents and materials, case studies, etc., the aesthetic core value of Jiarong Tibetan brocade belt culture is recognized. Under the influence of globalization, the local traditional culture gradually lost its unique personality, and indirectly destroyed the traditional structure and identity of local society. Based on the skill analysis and cultural implication mining of Jiarong Tibetan flower weaving belt, this paper discusses how to transform and use local handicraft resources, so as to identify the practical significance and practical value of Jiarong Tibetan brocade handicraft culture connotation mining for local handicraft modernization practice and reshaping local culture and regional activation.

Performance-Stabilizing Synergies in a Complex Motor Skill: Analysis Based on the Uncontrolled Manifold Hypothesis

The authors studied indices of stability (ΔV) of two time-varying variables, hand coordinate and velocity, during accurate throw of a small ball into the basket. Ten participants performed the throwing task with eyes-open (vision) and -closed (no vision) conditions. In the latter condition, participants closed their eyes prior to initiating the throw. The intertrial variance in the joint configuration space (and joint velocity space) was analyzed based on the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis. The results confirmed the presence of both coordinate- and velocity-stabilizing synergies (ΔV > 0). Intertrial variance was larger in the no-vision condition compared with the vision condition. Over the movement duration, ΔV did not change for the coordinate-related analysis but dropped consistently for the velocity-related analysis. The authors interpret the findings within the idea of hierarchical control and trade-off between synergy indices at different levels of the hierarchy.

Neural interpretation of European summer climate ensemble predictions

<p>Current state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction systems still show limited skill, particularly over Europe in summer. To circumvent this, we propose a neural network-based classification of individual ensemble members at the initialisation of summer climate predictions, prior to performing a skill analysis. Different from European winter climate, largely dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, predictability of European summer climate has been associated with several physical mechanisms, including teleconnections with the tropics. Recent studies have shown that predictive skill improves when the dominant physical processes in a given season are identified at the initialisation of a prediction. Each of these dominant physical processes is associated with large-scale circulation patterns, often depicted by modes of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). We argue that Self-Organising Maps (SOM), a type of neural network classifier, can provide further insight on interpreting the predictive skill of mixed resolution hindcast ensemble simulations generated by MPI-ESM. This is achieved by identifying which circulation patterns over the North Atlantic-European sector (NAE) at the initialisation of hindcasts lead to more predictable states than others, their preferable transition states, and whether the spatial structure of each SOM mode play a role in shaping climate over Europe. We train SOM networks on sea level pressure fields of ERA-20C reanalysis at the initialisation of the seasonal prediction system (every May) for the period of 1900-2010, covering NAE. We compare the SOM-derived modes with circulation patterns derived from EOF analysis, and characterise each class of circulation regime. This analysis is used to distinguish classes of predictions with two different sets of MPI-ESM initialised simulations with 10 and 30 members, covering the period of 1902-2008 and 1982-2016, respectively. We then discuss the differences and advantages of performing a neural interpretation of the skill of an ensemble prediction, over traditional skill analysis.</p><p><br><br></p>

The effectiveness of video modelling for teaching daily life skills to children with autism spectrum disorder

The purpose of this study is to examine effectiveness of video modelling for teaching daily life skills to children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Multiple probe across subjects design from single subject research model has used as a research method. It has found that video modelling is effective on teaching common life skills to individuals with ASD. It has also demonstrated that these skills become permanent in subjects’ lives and they could generalise these skills at other times with various equipment and in different contexts. Data are collected according to achieve each skill step in cooking fried eggs with garlic sausage and cooking pasta skill analysis. In future researches, teaching different daily life skills by using video modelling could be tested. Keywords: Autism, cooking fried eggs, cooking pasta, daily life skills, video modelling.