scholarly journals Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ovikuomagbe Oyedele
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

scholarly journals Will Inequality Affect Growth?: Evidence from USA and China since 1980

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yongqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Income inequality may hinder economic growth is a widespread concern. The results from previous literature are mixed. Although both USA and China is an excellent case study by itself, it is even interesting to compare them given they are the two largest economies in the world, and yet completely different from each other. We employ annual data from 1980 to 2012 and apply cointegration to study the effects of income inequality on real GDP per capita and real GDP of both USA and China. We also include the exchange rate into the model to examine possible effects of depreciation on growth. The main findings are: first, depreciation does not affect the growth of USA. Second, depreciation promotes growth of China in the short-run, but may hurt its growth in the long-run. Third, income inequality will hurt growth of USA in the short-run, while it encourages its growth in the long-run. Finally, income inequality may promote growth of China in both short-run and long-run.

scholarly journals TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Justin Yano ◽  
Joshua Matanda
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze tourism-led growth hypothesis in Kenya’s economy.  Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. This study targeted international tourism receipts, employment, economies of scale and capital investments in tourism related economic activities that included hotels and food service activities, wholesale and retail trade, transport and information communication and travel agencies, entertainment and recreation in the period 1980 to 2019.The study used purposive sampling. a sample size of data for 40 years from 1980 to 2019 was used. The data were collected from KNBS, the World Bank and WTTC using a secondary data collection sheet. Using real GDP per capita as the dependent variable and international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments as the independent variables, the study used regression and vector error correction (VEC) to carry out the analysis. The analysis was systematic and begins with diagnostic tests that included Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for homoscedasticity, Jarque-Bera normality test, VIF multi-collinearity test, Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and Johansen Co-integration test and finally the regression and the vector error correction analysis. Data analysis was done using E-views software. Results: The study results showed that international tourism receipts, tourism related employment and economies of scale positively influence real GDP per capita in both short run and long run equilibrium. Capital investments negatively affected real GDP per capita in the long run but had a positive effect in the short run equilibrium. Granger causality test presented a bi-directional causality between international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments and real GDP per capita. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The country should enact policies that promote tourism related activities because the benefits derived from tourist expenditures positively influence the growth of the economy. Institutions such as Brand Kenya, Tourism Promotion Council, the Ministry of Tourism and recruitment of international tourism ambassadors should be strengthened to ensure more foreign tourists are attracted into the country.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL Approach to Co-Integration

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kidanemariam Gidey Gebrehiwot
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
School Enrolment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government

The main objective of the study was to investigate the long run and short run impact of human capital on economic growth in Ethiopia (using real GDP per capita, as a proxy for economic growth) over the period 1974/75-2010/2011. The ARDL Approach to Co-integration and Error Correction Model are applied in order to investigate the long-run and short run impact of Human capital on Economic growth. The finding of the Bounds test shows that there is a stable long run relationship between real GDP per capita, education human capital, health human capital, labor force, gross capital formation, government expenditure and official development assistance. The estimated long run model revels that human capital in the form of health (proxied by the ratio of public expenditure on health to real GDP) is the main contributor to real GDP per capita rise followed by education human capital (proxied by secondary school enrolment). Such findings are consistent with the endogenous growth theories which argue that an improvement in human capital (skilled and healthy workers) improves productivity. In the short run, the coefficient of error correction term is -0.7366 suggesting about 73.66 percent annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium. This is another proof for the existence of a stable long run relationship among the variables. The estimated coefficients of the short-run model indicate that education is the main contributor to real GDP per capita change followed by gross capital formation (one period lagged value) and government expenditure (one period lagged value). But, unlike its long run significant impact, health has no significant short run impact on the economy. Even its one period lag has a significant negative impact on the economy. The above results have an important policy implication. The findings of this paper imply that economic performance can be improved significantly when the ratio of public expenditure on health services to GDP increases and when secondary school enrolment improves. Such improvements have a large impact on human productivity which leads to improved national output per capita. Hence policy makers and / or the government should strive to create institutional capacity that increase school enrolment and improved basic health service by strengthening the infrastructure of educational and health institutions that produce quality manpower. In addition to its effort, the government should continue its leadership role in creating  enabling environment that encourage better investment in human capital (education and health) by the private sector.  

scholarly journals The nexus between stock market development and economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 269-277
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The study investigated the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Belgium using ARDL approach with annual time series data from 1988 to 2012. Real GDP per capita was used as a proxy for economic growth and stock market capitalization as a ratio of GDP as an approximate measure of stock market development. The relationship between stock market development and economic growth falls into four categories which are (1) stock market-led economic growth, (2) economic growth-led stock market development, (3) feedback effect and (4) neutrality hypothesis where the relationship between the two variables does not exist. Despite the existence of these four views on the relationship between stock market and economic growth, it appears from the literature review done by the author that majority of the empirical evidence support the stock market-led economic growth view. The fact that the topic on the directional causality between stock market and economic growth is still inconclusive is the major motivating factor why the author chose to investigate the relationship between the two variables in Belgium. The study observed that there exist an insignificant long run causality running from stock market development towards economic growth in Belgium. This relationship was not detected in the short run. Moreover, the reverse causality from real GDP per capita to stock market capitalization both in the long and short run was not detected in Belgium. These results are at variance with the majority of the empirical findings reviewed earlier on. It could possibly be that certain conditions that are necessary to enable stock market to significantly positively influence economic growth were not in place in Belgium. Therefore, the study urges the Belgium authorities to put in place the right environment, policies and programmes that enable the stock market to play its role of stimulating economic growth.

scholarly journals Explaining Growth in African Countries – What Matters?

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-484
Author(s):  
José Augusto Lopes Da Veiga ◽  
Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes ◽  
Tiago Neves Sequeira ◽  
Marcelo Serra Santos
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

In this paper we analyse the role of the traditional determinants of economic growth in the African countries in the period between 1950 and 2012. Due to the specificity and the single nature of each one of these countries, methods that take into account observed and unobserved heterogeneity are used. Results highlight the relevance of the growth rate of the capital stock to growth in the short-run, which is significant in all regressions. The growth rate of the government to GDP ratio is also important in all but one of the regressions in which it appears, and its growth is harmful for the growth of GDP per capita in the short-run. The variables related to public debt do not present any relationship with economic growth. Human capital has a positive relationship with economic growth in regressions that do not include public debt. The growth rate of real GDP per capita also depends (negatively) on its past value, i.e., the lower the real GDP per capita the higher will be its growth rate.

scholarly journals Investigating the Causality Between Remittances, Infant Mortality, and Economic Growth in India: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Hassan Rashid ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of remittances on human development as measured by infant mortality rates and real GDP per capita in India using time series data for the 1975-2018 period. By employing the Zivot-Andrews single-break unit root test and cointegration analysis using the Johansen procedure, a stable long-run relationship is found among the variables. Consequently, by estimating a VECM with dummy variables, results indicate that, in the long run, both remittances and real GDP per capita have a negative and significant impact on infant mortality rates in India. With infant mortality rate as a dependent variable, the adjustment coefficient for the cointegrating vector is negative and significant as the theory predicts. A Granger Block causality test is also conducted, and results indicate that remittances do not Granger cause real GDP and infant mortality rate; however, it is found that infant mortality rate and real GDP per capita Granger cause remittances. Policy implications are discussed.

Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Models ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.

scholarly journals AID AND GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: A REASSESSMENT

2018 ◽  
pp. 422-440
Author(s):  
Sharif Hossain ◽  
Rajarshi Mitra ◽  
Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Although the amount of foreign aid received by Bangladesh as a share of GDP has declined over the years, Bangladesh remains one of the heavily aiddependent countries in Asia. The results of most empirical studies that have examined the effectiveness of foreign aid or other forms of development assistance for economic growth have varied considerably depending on the econometric methodology used and the period of study. As the debate and controversy over aid-effectiveness for economic growth continue to grow, this paper reinvestigates the short-run and long-run effects of foreign aid received on percapita real income of Bangladesh over the period 1972–2015. A vector error correction model is estimated. The results indicate lack of any significant short-run and long-run relation between foreign aid and per-capita real income. Results further indicate short-run unidirectional causalities from per-capita real GDP to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), from government expenditure (in proportion to GDP) to inflation rate, from inflation rate to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), and from domestic investment to foreign aid (as percentages of GDP). Short-run bidirectional causality is observed between per-capita electricity consumption and per-capita real GDP, and between per-capita real GDP and government expenditure (in proportion to GDP).

EXPORT-GROWTH NEXUS WHILE USING THE BLOCK EXOGENEITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46
Author(s):  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
Bound Test

The core objective of the study is to analyze the association between export and eco-nomic growth under the consideration of the time frame 1967 to 2017 for Pakistan economy. The review of literature assists to find out the frequently utilize factors are the real GDP per capita, export, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capi-tal formation possible determinants of the economic growth. However, Export Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis is oftenly employed to elaborate the affiliation between ex-port and the growth. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration accompanied with the structural break and vector auto regressive (VAR) are employed to analysis the long-term association among real GDP per capita, ex-port, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capital formation. The empirical analysis confirms the cointegration among the factors and the ELG hypothesis holds in Pakistan economy. The Block Exogeneity reveals that export and the capital for-mation have strong influence to stimulate the economic growth. While all the other factors have cumulative influence on the growth. Moreover, the impulse response exposes that if the shock of real GDP per capita, import, trade openness, fiscal devel-opment and the capital formation are given to the export, then response of export would be positive in the coming time frame.

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