Tight bound on NewHope failure probability

Author(s):  
Thomas Plantard ◽  
Arnaud Sipasseuth ◽  
Willy Susilo ◽  
Vincent Zucca
Author(s):  
Dui Hongyan ◽  
Zhang Chi

Background : Taxi sharing is an emerging transportation arrangement that helps improve the passengers’ travel efficiency and reduce costs. This study proposes an urban taxi sharing system. Methods: Considering each side congestion of the transport network, their corresponding reliability and failure probability are analyzed. Under the constraints of the number of passengers and their own time windows, the analysis is performed on passengers whose optimal path is inclusive. Results: According to the optimal strategy, the different passengers can be arranged into the same taxi to realize the taxi sharing. Then the shared taxi route can be optimized. Conclusion: Due to the reasonable vehicle route planning and passenger combination, these can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion, save the driving time, reduce the taxi no-load rate, and save the driving distance. At last, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the proposed method.


Author(s):  
Ryota Tsubaki ◽  
Koji Ichii ◽  
Jeremy D. Bricker ◽  
Yoshihisa Kawahara

Abstract. Fragility curves evaluating risk of railway track ballast and embankment fill scour were developed. To develop fragility curves, two well-documented single-track railway washouts during two recent floods in Japan were investigated. Type of damage to the railway was categorized into no damage, ballast scour, and embankment scour, in order of damage severity. Railway overtopping surcharge for each event was estimated via hydrologic and hydraulic analysis. Normal and log-normal fragility curves were developed based on failure probability derived from field records. A combined ballast and embankment scour model was validated by comparing the spatial distribution of railway scour with the field damage record.


Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Didier Hantz ◽  
Jordi Corominas ◽  
Giovanni B. Crosta ◽  
Michel Jaboyedoff

There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests using terms that appear to be the most logic and explicit as possible and describes methods to derive some of the main hazards and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized and diffuse hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed, and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the reach probability, and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (passage frequency) can be derived. This frequency is relevant for risk assessment when the element at risk can be damaged several times. If it is not replaced, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall is more relevant.


Author(s):  
Seyede Vahide Hashemi ◽  
Mahmoud Miri ◽  
Mohsen Rashki ◽  
Sadegh Etedali

This paper aims to carry out sensitivity analyses to study how the effect of each design variable on the performance of self-centering buckling restrained brace (SC-BRB) and the corresponding buckling restrained brace (BRB) without shape memory alloy (SMA) rods. Furthermore, the reliability analyses of BRB and SC-BRB are performed in this study. Considering the high computational cost of the simulation methods, three Meta-models including the Kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and polynomial response surface (PRSM) are utilized to construct the surrogate models. For this aim, the nonlinear dynamic analyses are conducted on both BRB and SC-BRB by using OpenSees software. The results showed that the SMA area, SMA length ratio, and BRB core area have the most effect on the failure probability of SC-BRB. It is concluded that Kriging-based Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) gives the best performance to estimate the limit state function (LSF) of BRB and SC-BRB in the reliability analysis procedures. Considering the effects of changing the maximum cyclic loading on the failure probability computation and comparison of the failure probability for different LSFs, it is also found that the reliability indices of SC-BRB were always higher than the corresponding reliability indices determined for BRB which confirms the performance superiority of SC-BRB than BRB.


2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Amenta ◽  
Dominique Attali ◽  
Olivier Devillers

Author(s):  
Hsoung-Wei Chou ◽  
Chin-Cheng Huang ◽  
Bo-Yi Chen ◽  
Hsien-Chou Lin ◽  
Ru-Feng Liu

The fracture probability of a boiling water reactor pressure vessel for a domestic nuclear power plant in Taiwan has been numerically analyzed using an advanced version of ORNL’s FAVOR code. First, a model of the vessel beltline region, which includes all shell welds and plates, is built for the FAVOR code based on the plant specific parameters of the reactor pressure vessel. Then, a novel flaw model which describes the flaw types of surface breaking flaws, embedded weld flaws and embedded plate flaws are simulated along both inner and outer vessel walls. When conducting the fracture probability analyses, a transient low temperature over-pressure event, which has previously been shown to be the most severe challenge to the integrity of boiling water reactor pressure vessels, is considered as the loading condition. It is found that the fracture occurs in the fusion-line area of axial welds, but with only an insignificant failure probability. The low through-wall cracking frequency indicates that the analyzed reactor pressure vessel maintains sufficient stability until either the end-of-license or for doubling of the present license of operation.


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