The Climatology and the Midwinter Suppression of the Cold Season North Pacific Storm Track in CMIP6 Models

The reproducibility of climatology and the midwinter suppression of cold season North Pacific storm track (NPST) in historical runs of 18 CMIP6 models is evaluated against the NCEP reanalysis data. The results show that the position of the climatological peak area of 850 hPa meridional eddy heat flux (v′t′850) is well captured by these models. The spatial patterns of climatological v′t′850 are basically consistent with the NCEP reanalysis. Generally, NorESM2-LM and CESM2-WACCM present a relatively strong capability to reproduce the climatological amplitude of v′t′850 with lower RMSE than the other models. Compared with CMIP5 models, the inter-model spread of v′t′850 climatology among the CMIP6 models is smaller, and their multi-model ensemble is closer to the NCEP reanalysis. The geographical distribution in more than half of the selected models is further south and east. For the subseasonal variability of v′t′850, nearly half of the models exhibit a double-peak structure. In contrast, the apparent midwinter suppression in the NPST represented by the 250 hPa filtered meridional wind variance (v′v′250) is reproduced by all the selected models.In addition, the present study investigates the possible reasons for simulation biases regarding climatological NPST amplitude. It is found that a higher model horizontal resolution significantly intensifies the climatological v′v′250. There is a significant in-phase relationship between climatological v′t′250 and the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the climatological v′t′850 is not sensitive to the model grid spacing. Additionally, the climatological low-tropospheric atmospheric baroclinicity is uncorrelated with climatological v′v′250. The stronger climatological baroclinic energy conversion is associated with the stronger climatological v′t′850.

Midwinter Suppression of Storm Tracks in an Idealized Zonally Symmetric Setting

The midwinter suppression of eddy activity in the North Pacific storm track is a phenomenon that has resisted reproduction in idealized models that are initialized independently of the observed atmosphere. Attempts at explaining it have often focused on local mechanisms that depend on zonal asymmetries, such as effects of topography on the mean flow and eddies. Here an idealized aquaplanet GCM is used to demonstrate that a midwinter suppression can also occur in the activity of a statistically zonally symmetric storm track. For a midwinter suppression to occur, it is necessary that parameters, such as the thermal inertia of the upper ocean and the strength of tropical ocean energy transport, are chosen suitably to produce a pronounced seasonal cycle of the subtropical jet characteristics. If the subtropical jet is sufficiently strong and located close to the midlatitude storm track during midwinter, it dominates the upper-level flow and guides eddies equatorward, away from the low-level area of eddy generation. This inhibits the baroclinic interaction between upper and lower levels within the storm track and weakens eddy activity. However, as the subtropical jet continues to move poleward during late winter in the idealized GCM (and unlike what is observed), eddy activity picks up again, showing that the properties of the subtropical jet that give rise to the midwinter suppression are subtle. The idealized GCM simulations provide a framework within which possible mechanisms giving rise to a midwinter suppression of storm tracks can be investigated systematically.

The Classification of Synoptic-Scale Eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific in Wintertime

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is applied to the study of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific in winter from 1948 to 2010. The western developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (WSE) and the eastern developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (ESE) are extracted from the first four leading modes of EOF analysis of high-pass filtered geopotential height. The results show the following: (1) The WSE and the ESE both take the form of a wave train propagating eastward. The WSE reach their largest amplitude around the dateline in the North Pacific, while the largest amplitude of ESE occurs in the northeast Pacific. (2) The WSE and ESE are the most important modes of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific, which correspond to the two max value centers of the storm track. (3) In addition to geopotential height, the WSE and the ESE also leave their wave-like footprints in the temperature, meridional wind, and vertical velocity fields, which assume typical baroclinic wave features. (4) The WSE and the ESE have an intrinsic time scale of four days and experience a “midwinter suppression” corresponding to the midwinter suppression of storm tracks.

Role of the Tibetan Plateau on the Annual Variation of Mean Atmospheric Circulation and Storm-Track Activity*

This study reexamines how the Tibetan Plateau (TP) modulates the annual variation of atmospheric circulation and storm-track activity based on the Meteorological Research Institute's atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiments with a progressive TP uplift from 0% to 100% of the present height. Three major roles of the TP on atmospheric circulation and storm-track activity are identified. First, consistent with a previous finding, the TP tends to intensify the upper-level jet and enhance baroclinicity in the North Pacific Ocean but significantly weaken storm-track activity over the TP, East Asia, and the western North Pacific during the cold season. Second, the TP amplifies stationary waves that are closely linked to transient eddies. In particular, the TP enhances the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, which together contribute to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and the weakening of storm-track activity. Third, the TP significantly modulates the subseasonal variability of the Pacific storm-track (PST) activity. In particular, the TP tends to suppress PST activity during midwinter despite the fact that it strengthens baroclinicity along the Pacific jet. The midwinter suppression of PST activity, which is well reproduced in a control run with a realistic TP, gradually disappears as the TP height decreases. Major factors for the midwinter suppression of the PST associated with the TP include the 1) destructive effect of an excessively strong jet leading to an inefficiency of barotropic energy conversion, 2) reduction of baroclinicity over the northern part of the TP, and 3) subseasonally varying SST change and resulting moist static energy.

Is Pacific Storm-Track Activity Correlated with the Strength of Upstream Wave Seeding?

In this paper, the relationship between upstream seeding over north Asia and downstream storm-track activity over the North Pacific in midwinter and spring/fall has been analyzed using 45 years of variance and feature-tracking statistics. It is shown that for each season, interannual variations in upstream seeding and downstream storm-track activity are largely uncorrelated. Moreover, during midwinter months in which the upstream seeding from north Asia is about as strong as that during a typical spring/fall month, the downstream storm track in central Pacific is still significantly weaker during midwinter than that during spring/fall. In addition, during cool seasons in which the midwinter suppression is more pronounced in the upstream seeding region, the suppression is not significantly enhanced in the downstream Pacific storm track. A recent study suggested that reduced upstream seeding from north Asia is the main “source” of the midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track. Results presented in this study suggest that it is unlikely that the weakness in upstream seeding is the primary cause of the midwinter suppression.

Comments on “The Source of the Midwinter Suppression in Storminess over the North Pacific”

In a recent paper, Penny et al. employed feature tracking to investigate why there is a relative minimum in storminess during winter within the Pacific storm track. They concluded that reduced upstream seeding, especially seeding from northern Asia, is the main “source” of the midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track. Results presented here show that during midwinter months when upstream seeding is as strong as that in spring/fall, the Pacific storm track is not significantly stronger than average and is still much weaker than that in spring/fall, suggesting that the strength of upstream seeding cannot be the primary cause of the midwinter suppression of Pacific storm-track activity.

Reply

Penny et al. recently showed that the midwinter suppression in storminess over the western and central Pacific Ocean is due to a reduction in the number and amplitude of “seed” disturbances entering the Pacific storm track from midlatitude Asia. In this reply, the authors strengthen the conclusions that were originally put forth and show that the apparent departure from this behavior presented in a recent comment originates in the commenters having undersampled the full dataset of interannual variability. It is shown that when the Pacific storm track is only weakly “seeded” by an upstream source, as is common during winter and uncommon during fall and spring, it is likely to be weaker than average, and this reduction is highly statistically significant and the amplitude compares well with the midwinter suppression.