Sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on bimaterial faults show dominant rupture asymmetry and potential for elevated seismic hazard

We perform numerical simulations of sequences of earthquake and aseismic slip on planar rate and state faults separating dissimilar material within the 2-D plane strain approximation. We resolve all stages of the earthquake cycle from aseismic slip to fast ruptures while incorporating full inertia effects during seismic event propagation. We show that bimaterial coupling results in favorable nucleation site and subsequent asymmetric rupture propagation. We demonstrate that increasing the material contrast enhances this asymmetry leading to higher slip rates and normal stress drops in the preferred rupture propagation direction. The normal stress drop, induced by the bimaterial effect, leads to strong dynamic weakening of the fault and may destabilize the creeping region on a heterogeneous rate and state fault, resulting in extended rupture propagation. Such rupture penetration into creeping patches may lead to more frequent opening of earthquake gates, causing increased seismic hazard. Furthermore, bimaterial coupling may lead to irregular seismicity pattern in terms of event length, peak slip rates,and hypocenter location, depending on the properties of the creeping patches bordering the seismogenically active part of the fault . Our results highlight robust characteristics of bimaterial interfaces that persist over long sequence of events and suggest the need for further exploration of the role of material contrast in earthquake physics and models of seismic hazard.

Self-limiting earthquake dynamics and spatio-temporal clustering of seismicity enabled by off-fault plasticity

Earthquakes are among nature’s deadliest and costliest hazards. Understanding mechanisms for earthquake nucleation, propagation, and arrest is key for developing reliable operational forecasts and next generation seismic hazard models. While significant progress has been made in understanding source processes in linear elastic domains, the response of the rocks near the fault is complex and likely to be inelastic due to the extreme stresses and deformations associated with fault slip. The effect of this more realistic fault zone response on seismic and aseismic fault slip is poorly understood. Here, we simulate sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip of a fault embedded in an elastic-viscoplastic bulk subject to slow tectonic loading. We show that off-fault plasticity significantly influences the source characteristics. Specifically, off-fault plasticity may lead to partial ruptures and emergence of spatial segmentation as well as hierarchical temporal seismic clustering. Furthermore, co-evolution of fault slip and off-fault bulk plasticity may lead to heterogeneous rupture propagation and results in pockets of slip deficit. While the energy dissipated through plastic deformation remains a small fraction of the total energy budget, its impact on the source characteristics is disproportionally large through the redistribution of stresses and viscous relaxation. Our results suggest a new mechanism of dynamic heterogeneity in earthquake physics that can be active for both small and large earthquakes and may have important implications on earthquake size distribution and energy budget. Furthermore, this plasticity-induced self-limiting crack dynamics may be relevant for other dynamic fracture applications and design of dynamically tough materials.

Unconventional singularities and energy balance in frictional rupture

A widespread framework for understanding frictional rupture, such as earthquakes along geological faults, invokes an analogy to ordinary cracks. A distinct feature of ordinary cracks is that their near edge fields are characterized by a square root singularity, which is intimately related to the existence of strict dissipation-related lengthscale separation and edge-localized energy balance. Yet, the interrelations between the singularity order, lengthscale separation and edge-localized energy balance in frictional rupture are not fully understood, even in physical situations in which the conventional square root singularity remains approximately valid. Here we develop a macroscopic theory that shows that the generic rate-dependent nature of friction leads to deviations from the conventional singularity, and that even if this deviation is small, significant non-edge-localized rupture-related dissipation emerges. The physical origin of the latter, which is predicted to vanish identically in the crack analogy, is the breakdown of scale separation that leads an accumulated spatially-extended dissipation, involving macroscopic scales. The non-edge-localized rupture-related dissipation is also predicted to be position dependent. The theoretical predictions are quantitatively supported by available numerical results, and their possible implications for earthquake physics are discussed.

Determination of near-fault impulsive signals with multivariate naïve Bayes method

Near-fault ground motions may contain impulse behavior on velocity records. To calculate the probability of occurrence of the impulsive signals, a large dataset is collected from various national data providers and strong motion databases. The dataset has a large number of parameters which carry information on the earthquake physics, ruptured faults, ground motion parameters, distance between the station and several parts of the ruptured fault. Relation between the parameters and impulsive signals is calculated. It is found that fault type, moment magnitude, distance and azimuth between a site of interest and the surface projection of the ruptured fault are correlated with the impulsiveness of the signals. Separate models are created for strike-slip faults and non-strike-slip faults by using multivariate naïve Bayes classifier method. Naïve Bayes classifier allows us to have the probability of observing impulsive signals. The models have comparable accuracy rates, and they are more consistent on different fault types with respect to previous studies.

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

Earthquake physics beyond the linear fracture mechanics: a discrete approach

Fast development of seismology and related disciplines like seismic prospecting observed in recent decades has its roots in efficient applications of ideas of continuum media mechanics to describe seismic wave propagation through the Earth. Using the same approach enhanced by fracture mechanics methods to describe physical processes leading to nucleation, development and finally arresting of earthquake ruptures has also advanced our understanding of earthquake physics. However, in this case, we can talk only about a partial success since many aspects of earthquake processes are still very poorly understood if at all. We argue that to progress with seismic source analysis we need to turn our attention to a complementary approach, namely a ‘discrete’ one. We demonstrate here that taking into account discreteness of solid materials we are able not only to incorporate classical ‘continuum’ solutions but also reveal many details of fracture processes whose analysis is beyond the classical fracture mechanics. In this paper, we analyse tensional processes encountered in rock mechanics laboratory experiments, mining seismology and sometimes in realistic inter-plate seismic episodes. The ‘discreteness’ principle is implemented through the discrete element method—the numerical method entirely based on the discrete representation of the medium. Special attention is paid to energy accumulation and transformation during loading and relaxation phases of fragmentation processes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe’.

Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls earthquake sequences on subduction megathrusts

<p>A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of friction on lithology, sliding velocity, temperature, and pore fluid pressure. Here, we present a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical model — which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow — to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and fast events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheology. An adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of dynamic rupture.</p><p>We investigate how permeability and its spatial distribution control the interseismic coupling along the megathrust interface, the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and the nucleation of large earthquakes. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by slow-slip events. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our models reveal that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Furthermore, we analyze how rate dependent strength and dilatation affect rupture propagation and arrest. Our preliminary results show that fluid-solid poro-visco-elasto-plastic coupling behaves similarly to rate- and state-dependent friction. In this context, fluid pressure plays the role of state parameter whose time evolution is governed by: (i) the short-term elasto-plastic collapse of pores inside faults during the rupture (coseismic self-pressurization of faults) and (ii) the long-term pore-pressure diffusion from the faults into surrounding rocks (post- and interseismic relaxation of fluid pressure). This newly-developed numerical framework contributes to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying large megathrust earthquakes, and demonstrate that fluid play a key role in controlling the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip.</p>

Fast and localized temperature measurements during simulated earthquakes in carbonate rocks

<p>The understanding of earthquake physics is hindered by the poor knowledge of fault strength and temperature evolution during seismic slip. Experiments reproducing seismic velocity (~1 m/s) allow us to measure both the evolution of fault strength and the associated temperature increase due to frictional heating. However, temperature measurements were performed with techniques having insufficient spatial and temporal resolution. Here we conduct high velocity friction experiments on Carrara marble rock samples sheared at 20 MPa normal stress, velocity of 0.3 and 6 m/s, and 20 m of total displacement. We measure the temperature evolution of the fault surface at the acquisition rate of 1 kHz and over a spatial resolution of ~40 µm<sup></sup>with optical fibers conveying the infrared radiation to a two-color pyrometer. Temperatures up to 1250 °C and low coseismic fault shear strength are compatible with the activation of grain size dependent viscous creep.</p>