Earthquake ruptures and topography controlled by plate interface deformation

What controls the location and segmentation of mega-earthquakes in subduction zones is a long-standing problem in earth sciences. Prediction of earthquake ruptures mostly relies on interplate coupling models based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems providing patterns of slip deficit between tectonic plates. We here investigate if and how the seismic and aseismic patches revealed by these models relate to the distribution of deformation along the plate interface, i.e. basal erosion and/or underplating. From a mechanical analysis of the topography applied along the Chilean subduction zone, we show that extensive plate interface deformation takes place along most of the margin. We show that basal erosion occurs preferentially at 15 km depth while underplating does at 35 ± 10 and 60 ± 5 km depth, in agreement with P-T conditions of recovered underplated material, expected pore pressures, and spatial distribution of marine terraces and uplift rates. Along southern Chile, large sediment input favors shallow accretion and underplating of subducted sediments, while along northern Chile, extensive basal erosion provides material for the underplating. We then show that all major earthquakes of southern Chile are limited along their down-dip end by underplating while, along northern Chile, they are surrounded by both basal erosion and underplating. Segments with heterogeneously distributed deformation largely coincide with lateral earthquake terminations. We therefore propose that long-lived plate interface deformation promotes stress build-up and leads to earthquake nucleation. Earthquakes then propagate along fault planes shielded from this long-lived permanent deformation, and are finally stopped by segments of heterogeneously distributed deformation. Slip deficit patterns and earthquake segmentation therefore reflect the along-dip and along-strike distribution of the plate interface deformation. Topography acts as a mirror of distributed plate interface deformation and should be studied systematically to improve the prediction of earthquake ruptures.

Dynamic rupture initiation and propagation in a fluid-injection laboratory setup with diagnostics across multiple temporal scales

Fluids are known to trigger a broad range of slip events, from slow, creeping transients to dynamic earthquake ruptures. Yet, the detailed mechanics underlying these processes and the conditions leading to different rupture behaviors are not well understood. Here, we use a laboratory earthquake setup, capable of injecting pressurized fluids, to compare the rupture behavior for different rates of fluid injection, slow (megapascals per hour) versus fast (megapascals per second). We find that for the fast injection rates, dynamic ruptures are triggered at lower pressure levels and over spatial scales much smaller than the quasistatic theoretical estimates of nucleation sizes, suggesting that such fast injection rates constitute dynamic loading. In contrast, the relatively slow injection rates result in gradual nucleation processes, with the fluid spreading along the interface and causing stress changes consistent with gradually accelerating slow slip. The resulting dynamic ruptures propagating over wetted interfaces exhibit dynamic stress drops almost twice as large as those over the dry interfaces. These results suggest the need to take into account the rate of the pore-pressure increase when considering nucleation processes and motivate further investigation on how friction properties depend on the presence of fluids.

Joint earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, California, USA

Large, multi-fault earthquakes increase the threat of strong ground shaking and reshape the probability of future events across a system of faults. Fault junctions act as conditional barriers, or earthquake gates, that stop most earthquakes but permit junction-spanning events when stress conditions are favorable. Constraining the physical conditions that favor multi-fault earthquakes requires information on the frequency of isolated events versus events that activate faults through the junction. Measuring this frequency is challenging because dating uncertainties limit correlation of paleoseismic events at different faults, requiring a direct approach to measuring rupture through an earthquake gate. We show through documentation and finite-element modeling of secondary fault slip that co-rupture of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults (California, USA) through the Cajon Pass earthquake gate occurred at least three times in the past 2000 yr, most recently in the historic 1812 CE earthquake. Our models show that gate-breaching events taper steeply and halt abruptly as they transfer slip between faults. Comparison to independent chronologies shows that 20%–23% of earthquakes on the San Andreas and the San Jacinto faults are co-ruptures through Cajon Pass.

Supplemental Material: Joint earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, California, USA

Methods, supplemental figures, and data tables.<br>

Supplemental Material: Joint earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, California, USA

Methods, supplemental figures, and data tables.<br>

Signature of transition to supershear rupture speed in the coseismic off-fault damage zone

Most earthquake ruptures propagate at speeds below the shear wave velocity within the crust, but in some rare cases, ruptures reach supershear speeds. The physics underlying the transition of natural subshear earthquakes to supershear ones is currently not fully understood. Most observational studies of supershear earthquakes have focused on determining which fault segments sustain fully grown supershear ruptures. Experimentally cross-validated numerical models have identified some of the key ingredients required to trigger a transition to supershear speed. However, the conditions for such a transition in nature are still unclear, including the precise location of this transition. In this work, we provide theoretical and numerical insights to identify the precise location of such a transition in nature. We use fracture mechanics arguments with multiple numerical models to identify the signature of supershear transition in coseismic off-fault damage. We then cross-validate this signature with high-resolution observations of fault zone width and early aftershock distributions. We confirm that the location of the transition from subshear to supershear speed is characterized by a decrease in the width of the coseismic off-fault damage zone. We thus help refine the precise location of such a transition for natural supershear earthquakes.

Neotectonics and Paleoseismicity of a Major Junction Between Two Strands of the Awatere Fault, South Island, New Zealand

<p><b>In northeastern South Island, New Zealand, obliquely-convergent relativemotion between the Pacific and Australian plates is accommodated by slip acrossactive dextral-oblique faults in the Marlborough fault system. The Awatere Fault isone of four principal active strike-slip faults within this plate boundary zone, andincludes two sections (the eastern and Molesworth sections) that have differentstrikes and that join across a complex fault junction in the upper Awatere Valley.</b></p> <p>Detailed mapping of the fault traces and measurement of 97 geomorphicdisplacements along the Awatere Fault in the vicinity of the fault junction show thatthe eastern and Molesworth sections of the fault intersect one another at a low angle(10-15º), at the eastern end of an internally faulted, elongate, ~15 km long and up to3 km wide fault wedge or sliver. The region between the fault sections is split by aseries of discontinuous, en-echelon scarps that are oriented from ~10º to 20-30ºclockwise from the principal fault sections. Based on other observations ofdiscontinuities in strike-slip earthquake ruptures around the globe, this low-angleintersection geometry suggests that the junction between these fault sections may notact as a significant barrier to earthquake rupture propagation. This interpretation ofthe mechanical significance of the fault junction to earthquake ruptures is counter toprevious suggestions, but is supported by new paleoseismic data from fourpaleoseismic trenches excavated on each side of the junction. In a new paleoseismictrench on the Molesworth section at Saxton River, 18 km to the west of the junction,up to ten surface-rupturing events in the past ~15 ka are recognised from 12radiocarbon ages and 1 optically stimulated luminescence age. In two new trencheson the eastern section near to Upcot Saddle, 12 km northeast of the fault junction,five events took place in the past 5.5 ka, based on 21 radiocarbon ages. Thischronology from Upcot Saddle is combined with data from two previous trencheslocated ~55 km to the northeast at Lake Jasper, to infer nine events on the easternsection since 8330-8610 cal. years B.P. These well-dated events on the easternsection are compared to those on the Molesworth section to the west of the faultjunction. At 95% confidence, five events on both sections have occurred withstatistical contemporaneity since ~6 ka B.P. These five events may have rupturedboth the eastern and Molesworth sections simultaneously, in accordance with the interpretation that the fault section junction does not arrest rupture propagation.</p> <p>Alternatively, these events may have been separate earthquakes that occurred withinthe statistical resolution provided by radiocarbon dating.</p> <p>The most recent event to rupture the eastern section was the Mw ~7.5 1848Marlborough earthquake. The coseismic slip distribution and maximum traceablelength of this surface rupture are calculated from the magnitude and distribution ofsmall, metre-scale geomorphic displacements attributable to this earthquake. Thesedata suggest this event ruptured >100-110 km of the eastern section, with meansurface displacement of 5.3 ±1.6 m. Based on these parameters, the momentmagnitude of this earthquake would be Mw 7.4-7.7. This magnitude estimate isindistinguishable from previous calculations that were based on attenuation ofshaking intensity isoseismals that were assigned from contemporary historicalaccounts of that earthquake. On the basis of similar rupture lengths and coseismicdisplacements, it is inferred that the penultimate event had a similar momentmagnitude to the 1848 earthquake.</p> <p>Horizontal displacement of a flight of 6 fluvial terraces at Saxton River by theMolesworth section of the Awatere Fault is constrained to have occurred at a nearconstantrate of 5.5 ±1.5 mm/a since ~15 ka B.P. These rates are based on two newoptically stimulated luminescence ages for the highest terrace treads of 14.5 ±1.5 and6.69 ±0.74 ka B.P. These rates are indistinguishable from recent strike-slip rateestimates for the eastern section of 5.6 ±1.1 and 6 ±2 mm/a. Comparing themagnitudes and ages of the terrace riser displacements at Saxton River to the timingof paleoearthquakes on the Molesworth section implies a mean per-eventdisplacement of 4.4 ±0.2 m since ~15 ka. The new terrace ages also record twoperiods of aggradation that post-date the Last Glacial Maximum.</p>

Neotectonics and Paleoseismicity of a Major Junction Between Two Strands of the Awatere Fault, South Island, New Zealand

<p><b>In northeastern South Island, New Zealand, obliquely-convergent relativemotion between the Pacific and Australian plates is accommodated by slip acrossactive dextral-oblique faults in the Marlborough fault system. The Awatere Fault isone of four principal active strike-slip faults within this plate boundary zone, andincludes two sections (the eastern and Molesworth sections) that have differentstrikes and that join across a complex fault junction in the upper Awatere Valley.</b></p> <p>Detailed mapping of the fault traces and measurement of 97 geomorphicdisplacements along the Awatere Fault in the vicinity of the fault junction show thatthe eastern and Molesworth sections of the fault intersect one another at a low angle(10-15º), at the eastern end of an internally faulted, elongate, ~15 km long and up to3 km wide fault wedge or sliver. The region between the fault sections is split by aseries of discontinuous, en-echelon scarps that are oriented from ~10º to 20-30ºclockwise from the principal fault sections. Based on other observations ofdiscontinuities in strike-slip earthquake ruptures around the globe, this low-angleintersection geometry suggests that the junction between these fault sections may notact as a significant barrier to earthquake rupture propagation. This interpretation ofthe mechanical significance of the fault junction to earthquake ruptures is counter toprevious suggestions, but is supported by new paleoseismic data from fourpaleoseismic trenches excavated on each side of the junction. In a new paleoseismictrench on the Molesworth section at Saxton River, 18 km to the west of the junction,up to ten surface-rupturing events in the past ~15 ka are recognised from 12radiocarbon ages and 1 optically stimulated luminescence age. In two new trencheson the eastern section near to Upcot Saddle, 12 km northeast of the fault junction,five events took place in the past 5.5 ka, based on 21 radiocarbon ages. Thischronology from Upcot Saddle is combined with data from two previous trencheslocated ~55 km to the northeast at Lake Jasper, to infer nine events on the easternsection since 8330-8610 cal. years B.P. These well-dated events on the easternsection are compared to those on the Molesworth section to the west of the faultjunction. At 95% confidence, five events on both sections have occurred withstatistical contemporaneity since ~6 ka B.P. These five events may have rupturedboth the eastern and Molesworth sections simultaneously, in accordance with the interpretation that the fault section junction does not arrest rupture propagation.</p> <p>Alternatively, these events may have been separate earthquakes that occurred withinthe statistical resolution provided by radiocarbon dating.</p> <p>The most recent event to rupture the eastern section was the Mw ~7.5 1848Marlborough earthquake. The coseismic slip distribution and maximum traceablelength of this surface rupture are calculated from the magnitude and distribution ofsmall, metre-scale geomorphic displacements attributable to this earthquake. Thesedata suggest this event ruptured >100-110 km of the eastern section, with meansurface displacement of 5.3 ±1.6 m. Based on these parameters, the momentmagnitude of this earthquake would be Mw 7.4-7.7. This magnitude estimate isindistinguishable from previous calculations that were based on attenuation ofshaking intensity isoseismals that were assigned from contemporary historicalaccounts of that earthquake. On the basis of similar rupture lengths and coseismicdisplacements, it is inferred that the penultimate event had a similar momentmagnitude to the 1848 earthquake.</p> <p>Horizontal displacement of a flight of 6 fluvial terraces at Saxton River by theMolesworth section of the Awatere Fault is constrained to have occurred at a nearconstantrate of 5.5 ±1.5 mm/a since ~15 ka B.P. These rates are based on two newoptically stimulated luminescence ages for the highest terrace treads of 14.5 ±1.5 and6.69 ±0.74 ka B.P. These rates are indistinguishable from recent strike-slip rateestimates for the eastern section of 5.6 ±1.1 and 6 ±2 mm/a. Comparing themagnitudes and ages of the terrace riser displacements at Saxton River to the timingof paleoearthquakes on the Molesworth section implies a mean per-eventdisplacement of 4.4 ±0.2 m since ~15 ka. The new terrace ages also record twoperiods of aggradation that post-date the Last Glacial Maximum.</p>