On Budget Deficit under Economic Growth: Towards a Mathematical Model of MMT

Recently, a school of thought called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been attracting attention, but it has not received much theoretical or mathematical analysis. In this paper, we examine the theoretical validity of the MMT argument using an overlapping generations (OLG) model that includes economic growth due to population growth, and give a generally positive evaluation of MMT. The basic idea is that a certain level of continuous budget deficit is necessary to maintain full employment when the economy is growing, that inflation occurs when the budget deficit exceeds that level, that a recession occurs when the budget deficit falls below that level, and involuntary unemployment occurs. In order to recover from a recession, a budget deficit in excess of that level is required, and that deficit need not be covered by a future budget surplus. The same can be said for growth resulting from technological progress.

Climate Justice in an Intergenerational Sustainability Framework: A Stochastic OLG Model

Climate justice is conceived as the intertemporal climate equity and equality exchange amongst generations. Sustainability—intended as the interplay amongst the economy, the society, the environment, and the governance—is essential to forge the climate justice theoretical framework. On this base, the study attempts to model the intertemporal choice of the status quo amongst generations in these four domains, making use of an overlapping generations (OLG) model making use of an intertemporal choice framework. The proxies detected are GDP growth (economy), environmental quality (environment), and labor growth, and environmental investment (society) as assumptions. The governance dimension is captured by the difference in wealth between young and old generations. The work aims at replying to the following research question: Which are the conditions for sustainable development such that climate justice holds? The intra-intergenerational exchange is defined in two periods, while the individual provides their preferred economic and environmental choice mix as consumption-saving. This study shows that keeping the business-as-usual scenario, young generations will have to bear the brunt of sustainable development. Additionally, reduced emissions are only achievable with increased efforts by the youth by reducing their leisure and consumption. These facts call for enhanced intergenerational sustainability and climate justice policies.

Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change?

The 2015 Paris climate accord (Paris Agreement) is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature to limit climate change. But it may be doing the opposite in permitting a slow phase-in of CO2 emission mitigation. The accord asks its 195 national signatories to specify their emission reductions and to raise those contributions over time. However, there is no mechanism to enforce these pledges. This said, the accord puts dirty energy producers on notice that their days are numbered. Unfortunately, this “use it or lose it” message may accelerate the extraction and sale of fossil fuels and, thereby, permanently worsen climate change. Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted, highly troubling Green Paradox. Its framework properly treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s—an externality that is, in part, irreversible and, if large enough, can tip the climate to a permanently bad state. Our paper shows that delaying abatement can be worse than doing nothing. Indeed, it can make all generations worse off. In contrast, immediate policy action can make all generations better off. Finally, we question the standard use of infinitely lived, single-agent models to determine optimal abatement policy. Intergenerational altruism underlies such models. But its assumption lacks empirical support. Moreover, were such altruism widespread, effective limits on CO 2 emissions would, presumably, already be in place. Unfortunately, optimal abatement prescriptions derived from such models can differ, potentially dramatically, from those actually needed to correct the negative climate externality that today’s generations are imposing on tomorrow’s.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE HEALTH INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS (OLG) MODEL

ABSTRACT As an important part of human capital, healthy human capital plays a great role in promoting economic development. Based on the overlapping generations (OLG) model, this study establishes a correlation analysis model between healthy human capital and economic growth. This model takes utility maximization as the theoretical carrier to study how individuals promote economic growth while pursuing the maximization of their own health capital accumulation. The model can analyze the promotion mechanism of healthy human capital on economic growth, so as to provide decision support for relevant personnel. Taking the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in China as samples, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the model. The results show that healthy human capital investment in coastal areas is generally high, and the relationship between healthy human capital and economic growth conforms to the inverted U-shaped development model, so we should pay attention to the reasonable proportion of healthy human capital investment. In addition, from the fitting effect of the regression model, the F-statistic values of model 1 and model 2 are 672.6327 and 1240.188, which shows that the fitting accuracy of the two regression models is higher.

FERTILITY, HUMAN CAPITAL, AND INCOME: THE EFFECTS OF CHINA’S ONE-CHILD POLICY

This paper studies the effects of China’s one-child policy on human capital and income. I build and calibrate a quantitative OLG model with intergenerational transfers. The model generates a quantity–quality trade-off, so a restriction on fertility leads to an increase in human capital, and higher human capital then contributes to higher individual income and welfare. Calibrating the model to match survey data on urban households, I find that the one-child policy increases the human capital of affected agents by about 47% relative to a counterfactual with no fertility restrictions. However, the effect on aggregate income is negative as the size of the labor force falls.

Microeconomic Foundation for Phillips Curve with a Three-Period Overlapping Generations Model and Negative Real Balance Effect

We show a negative relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, that is, the Phillips curve using a three-period overlapping generations (OLG) model with childhood period and pay-as-you-go pension for older generation under monopolistic competition with negative real balance effect. In a three-period OLG model, there may exist a negative real balance effect because consumers have debts and savings. A fall (or rise) in the nominal wage rate induces a fall (or rise) in the price, then by negative real balance effect, the unemployment rate rises (or falls), and we get a negative relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. This conclusion is based on the premise of utility maximisation of consumers and profit maximisation of firms. Therefore, we present a microeconomic foundation for the Phillips curve. We also examine the effects of fiscal policy financed by seigniorage, which is represented by left-ward shift of the Phillips curve.