Stock price prediction based on stock price synchronicity and deep learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 2141010
Author(s):  
Nan Jing ◽  
Qi Liu ◽  
Hefei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Price Synchronicity ◽  
Price Trend ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Affinity Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Lstm Network

Deep learning technology has been widely used in the financial industry, primarily for improving financial time series prediction based on stock prices. To solve the problem of low fitting and poor accuracy in traditional stock price prediction models, this paper proposes a stock price prediction model based on stock price synchronicity and deep learning methods, which applied the stock price synchronicity theory in stock price trend analysis. This paper first uses the affinity propagation algorithm to build stock clusters, and then, based on convolution neural network (CNN), and feature weight to construct the stock price synchronicity factor. At last, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network with multifactor is built for stock price trend analysis. According to the theory of stock price synchronicity, the affinity propagation algorithm can find the potential related stocks of the target stock. The spatial data analysis ability of the CNN model provides a guarantee for the application in stock price synchronicity factor analysis. The LSTM model can better analyze the information contained in the stock price time series and predict the future price. The experimental results show that, compared with the traditional multilayer neural network model, the LSTM model has better accuracy in the trend prediction of the stock price. Simultaneously, the application of stock price synchronicity effectively improves the performance of the multifactor LSTM network.

scholarly journals Is Deep Learning for Image Recognition Applicable to Stock Market Prediction?

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Sik Sim ◽  
Hae In Kim ◽  
Jae Joon Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Image Recognition ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Market Prediction ◽  
Technical Indicators ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Stock market prediction is a challenging issue for investors. In this paper, we propose a stock price prediction model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) to validate the applicability of new learning methods in stock markets. When applying CNN, 9 technical indicators were chosen as predictors of the forecasting model, and the technical indicators were converted to images of the time series graph. For verifying the usefulness of deep learning for image recognition in stock markets, the predictive accuracies of the proposed model were compared to typical artificial neural network (ANN) model and support vector machine (SVM) model. From the experimental results, we can see that CNN can be a desirable choice for building stock prediction models. To examine the performance of the proposed method, an empirical study was performed using the S&P 500 index. This study addresses two critical issues regarding the use of CNN for stock price prediction: how to use CNN and how to optimize them.

scholarly journals A graph-based CNN-LSTM stock price prediction algorithm with leading indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimmy Ming-Tai Wu ◽  
Zhongcui Li ◽  
Norbert Herencsar ◽  
Bay Vo ◽  
Jerry Chun-Wei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Wealth Management

AbstractIn today’s society, investment wealth management has become a mainstream of the contemporary era. Investment wealth management refers to the use of funds by investors to arrange funds reasonably, for example, savings, bank financial products, bonds, stocks, commodity spots, real estate, gold, art, and many others. Wealth management tools manage and assign families, individuals, enterprises, and institutions to achieve the purpose of increasing and maintaining value to accelerate asset growth. Among them, in investment and financial management, people’s favorite product of investment often stocks, because the stock market has great advantages and charm, especially compared with other investment methods. More and more scholars have developed methods of prediction from multiple angles for the stock market. According to the feature of financial time series and the task of price prediction, this article proposes a new framework structure to achieve a more accurate prediction of the stock price, which combines Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Long–Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). This new method is aptly named stock sequence array convolutional LSTM (SACLSTM). It constructs a sequence array of historical data and its leading indicators (options and futures), and uses the array as the input image of the CNN framework, and extracts certain feature vectors through the convolutional layer and the layer of pooling, and as the input vector of LSTM, and takes ten stocks in U.S.A and Taiwan as the experimental data. Compared with previous methods, the prediction performance of the proposed algorithm in this article leads to better results when compared directly.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks on a Multivariate Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Jaydip Sen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of four years: 2015 – 2018. Based on the NIFTY data during 2015 – 2018, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the “Close” value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week, i.e., five days. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual “Close” values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

scholarly journals A stock price prediction method based on deep learning technology

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Xuan Ji ◽  
Jiachen Wang ◽  
Zhijun Yan
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Learning Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Text Feature

Purpose Stock price prediction is a hot topic and traditional prediction methods are usually based on statistical and econometric models. However, these models are difficult to deal with nonstationary time series data. With the rapid development of the internet and the increasing popularity of social media, online news and comments often reflect investors’ emotions and attitudes toward stocks, which contains a lot of important information for predicting stock price. This paper aims to develop a stock price prediction method by taking full advantage of social media data. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes a new prediction method based on deep learning technology, which integrates traditional stock financial index variables and social media text features as inputs of the prediction model. This study uses Doc2Vec to build long text feature vectors from social media and then reduce the dimensions of the text feature vectors by stacked auto-encoder to balance the dimensions between text feature variables and stock financial index variables. Meanwhile, based on wavelet transform, the time series data of stock price is decomposed to eliminate the random noise caused by stock market fluctuation. Finally, this study uses long short-term memory model to predict the stock price. Findings The experiment results show that the method performs better than all three benchmark models in all kinds of evaluation indicators and can effectively predict stock price. Originality/value In this paper, this study proposes a new stock price prediction model that incorporates traditional financial features and social media text features which are derived from social media based on deep learning technology.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Gourab Nath
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
The Other ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Other Hand

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modeled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using five deep learning-based regression models. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of December 29, 2014 to July 31, 2020. Based on the NIFTY data during December 29, 2014 to December 28, 2018, we build two regression models using <i>convolutional neural networks</i> (CNNs), and three regression models using <i>long-and-short-term memory</i> (LSTM) networks for predicting the <i>open</i> values of the NIFTY 50 index records for the period December 31, 2018 to July 31, 2020. We adopted a multi-step prediction technique with <i>walk-forward validation</i>. The parameters of the five deep learning models are optimized using the grid-search technique so that the validation losses of the models stabilize with an increasing number of epochs in the model training, and the training and validation accuracies converge. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the proposed regression models. The results indicate that while both CNN and LSTM-based regression models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values, the CNN model that previous one week’s data as the input is the fastest in its execution. On the other hand, the encoder-decoder convolutional LSTM model uses the previous two weeks’ data as the input is found to be the most accurate in its forecasting results.

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