Complexity, interdisciplinarity and design literacy

In today’s complex world, a variety of perspectives are needed to better understand and solve challenges. For decades, global organisations and researchers have pointed to interdisciplinarity as a way forward for educational systems. Educational research offers great possibilities and gains for students involved in interdisciplinary teaching and learning processes, and the interdisciplinary nature of design thinking and practice can play a vital role in interdisciplinary general education. This paper explores how future scenario-building, as part of general design education, can serve as a framework for inter-disciplinarity in general education and contribute to a better understanding of complex problems, challenges and design literacy.

What Would Happen If the M 7.3 (1721) and M 7.4 (1780) Historical Earthquakes of Tabriz City (NW Iran) Occurred Again in 2021?

Tabriz is located in the northwest of Iran. Two huge earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.4 and 7.3 occurred there in 1780 and 1721. These earthquakes caused considerable damage and casualties in Tabriz. Using the method of scenario building, we aim to investigate what would happen if such earthquakes occurred in 2021. This scenario building was carried out using deterministic and GIS-oriented techniques to find the levels of damage and casualties that would occur. This procedure included two steps. In the first step, a database of factors affecting the destructive power of earthquakes was prepared. In the next step, hierarchical analysis was used to weigh the data, and then the weighted data were combined with an earthquake intensity map. The obtained results were used to predict the earthquake intensity in Tabriz. According to our results, the earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1721 caused huge destruction in the north of Tabriz, as this earthquake occurred inside the site. However, this earthquake caused minimal damage to the south of the city owing to the geological situation of this area of Tabriz. The earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1780 caused less damage because of its distance from the site. In the third step of this analysis, the vulnerability of buildings and the population were examined. According to the estimates, District 4 would experience the highest damage rate in the earthquake of 1721, with 15,477 buildings destroyed, while this area would have a lower damage rate in the earthquake that occurred in 1780. The total casualties in Tabriz would number 152,092 and 505 people in the earthquakes of 1721 and 1780, respectively.

Adaptive Management in Urban Stream Governance: A Review and an Urban Commoning Scenario-Building Exercise

One environmental solution proposed by scholars since the 1980s is to manage our common natural resources adaptively with emphasis on feedback, the inclusion of multiple stakeholders and the flexibility to change accordingly. By focusing the analysis on the understudied topic of urban river systems in adaptive governance, a systematic literature review and a scenario-building exercise were conducted. Whereas the bibliometric analysis aims to improve our collective knowledge on many aspects of the adaptive management in urban stream governance, the urban commoning scenario-building exercise is to simulate alternatives beyond conventional top-down management approaches and to explore different opportunities of engaging multiple stakeholders throughout the adaptive management cycle. Our investigations recommend that although there is a trend of considering the “human” or “soft” perspective as part of the integrated solution approach, future researches need to ground their studies in more empirical cases in order to identify a few contextual variables such as ICT or public-private collaboration arrangement to leverage the complex inputs of soft power as benefits and added value in the management of urban river as a social-ecological system.

An Ecosystem View of Peer-to-Peer Electricity Trading: Scenario Building by Business Model Matrix to Identify New Roles

This article introduces new roles in future peer-to-peer electricity trading markets. Following a qualitative approach, firstly, the value network of the current electricity market is presented. To do so, service streams, critical roles, activities, and their setting in the electricity market are identified. Secondly, in order to identify the main sources of uncertainty, the business model matrix framework is utilized to analyze peer-to-peer electricity trading. Thirdly, four future scenarios are built based on user involvement and customer ownership. The outcome of the scenario building is the emergence of new roles, brokers, and representatives in the future peer-to-peer electricity markets. Fourth, based on the four future scenarios, changes in the value network, new roles, and emerging/evolving activities are identified. Finally, the two new roles are discussed from grid structure, security and privacy, legal, and data protection perspectives. The data is gathered by conducting semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in the current electricity market as well as potential disruptors. This article elaborates on the configuration of the value network in the electricity market and highlights the changes that peer-to-peer trading imposes to the status quo. Through the outcomes of the value network analysis, it assists policy makers to consider the requirements and current market players to reconsider their business models.

Building Cumulative Culture

This chapter begins with a discussion of methodological issues about historical reconstruction and scenario-building. To what extent can a theory of the emergence of human social behaviour be empirically constrained? What is known (and what is not known) of the behaviour of early humans? The chapter then turns to a substantive project: developing an account of the gradual expansion of cultural learning in the hominin lineage, and of the archaeological signatures of a gradual increase in bandwidth and reliability of that learning. The emphasis in this chapter is the importance of cultural learning in making cooperation increasingly profitable.

Autonomous Vehicle Use and Urban Space Transformation: A Scenario Building and Analysing Method

The use of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to transform users’ behaviour and urban space management. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of impacts require a scenario building method. We considered the fleet size, modal share, car ownership, parking preferences, and urban space repurposing during the elaboration of a novel method. Existing scenarios and results of a questionnaire survey have been used as sources. The method was applied to build scenarios in a case study in Budapest, Hungary. The results were used to calculate the impacts on urban space management, including environmental savings. The key findings are: scenarios with significant shared AV use show that parking demand may be minimised (almost 83%) and urban space repurposing has the highest potential; furthermore, AV use and sharing acceptability may decrease the fleet size and alter the type of shared mode to multiple occupancies. The developed scenario building method serves as a base for future studies. The produced scenarios allow the researchers to focus on the analysis of the impacts caused.