What Would Happen If the M 7.3 (1721) and M 7.4 (1780) Historical Earthquakes of Tabriz City (NW Iran) Occurred Again in 2021?

Tabriz is located in the northwest of Iran. Two huge earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.4 and 7.3 occurred there in 1780 and 1721. These earthquakes caused considerable damage and casualties in Tabriz. Using the method of scenario building, we aim to investigate what would happen if such earthquakes occurred in 2021. This scenario building was carried out using deterministic and GIS-oriented techniques to find the levels of damage and casualties that would occur. This procedure included two steps. In the first step, a database of factors affecting the destructive power of earthquakes was prepared. In the next step, hierarchical analysis was used to weigh the data, and then the weighted data were combined with an earthquake intensity map. The obtained results were used to predict the earthquake intensity in Tabriz. According to our results, the earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1721 caused huge destruction in the north of Tabriz, as this earthquake occurred inside the site. However, this earthquake caused minimal damage to the south of the city owing to the geological situation of this area of Tabriz. The earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 that occurred in 1780 caused less damage because of its distance from the site. In the third step of this analysis, the vulnerability of buildings and the population were examined. According to the estimates, District 4 would experience the highest damage rate in the earthquake of 1721, with 15,477 buildings destroyed, while this area would have a lower damage rate in the earthquake that occurred in 1780. The total casualties in Tabriz would number 152,092 and 505 people in the earthquakes of 1721 and 1780, respectively.

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Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Obstacle Factors of the Urban-Rural Integration of China’s Shrinking Cities in the Context of Sustainable Development

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13084203 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 4203

Author(s):

Bin Du ◽

Ying Wang ◽

Jiaxin He ◽

Wai Li ◽

Xiaohong Chen

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Economic Efficiency ◽

Formation Mechanisms ◽

Shrinking Cities ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Temporal Characteristics ◽

The North ◽

Urban Rural ◽

Spatio Temporal

Based on the fundamental concept of sustainable development, this study empirically analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics, formation mechanisms and obstacle factors of the urban-rural integration of shrinking cities in China, from 2008 to 2018. The conclusions are as follows: the overall level of the urban-rural integration of shrinking cities in China is low; the internal differences of urban-rural integration are also small, and the changes are slow. Next, the space difference is high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north. Moreover, differences exist among different levels of urban agglomerations. Urban economic efficiency, urban resources and environment, urban social equity and rural economic efficiency are the main factors affecting the urban-rural integration of shrinking cities in China. Urban and rural economic efficiency are the two most prominent shortcomings that restrict the urban-rural integration of shrinking cities. The spatial resistance mode of each city is more than the two-system resistance; the main resistance of shrinking cities with a higher level of urban-rural integration also comes from the non-economic field. This study expands the research scope that up till now has ignored the discussion of urban-rural issues in the research of shrinking cities at home and abroad, and provides practical guidance for the sustainable development of shrinking cities in China.

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Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity of PM2.5 Related to Meteorological and Socioeconomic Factors across China during 2000–2018

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph19020707 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 707

Author(s):

Xiangxue Zhang ◽

Changxiu Cheng

Keyword(s):

Socioeconomic Factors ◽

Southern China ◽

Yangtze River Delta ◽

Socioeconomic Factor ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The North ◽

The Status ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Future Direction ◽

Q Values

In recent years, air pollution caused by PM2.5 in China has become increasingly severe. This study applied a Bayesian space–time hierarchy model to reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the PM2.5 concentrations in China. In addition, the relationship between meteorological and socioeconomic factors and their interaction with PM2.5 during 2000–2018 was investigated based on the GeoDetector model. Results suggested that the concentration of PM2.5 across China first increased and then decreased between 2000 and 2018. Geographically, the North China Plain and the Yangtze River Delta were high PM2.5 pollution areas, while Northeast and Southwest China are regarded as low-risk areas for PM2.5 pollution. Meanwhile, in Northern and Southern China, the population density was the most important socioeconomic factor affecting PM2.5 with q values of 0.62 and 0.66, respectively; the main meteorological factors affecting PM2.5 were air temperature and vapor pressure, with q values of 0.64 and 0.68, respectively. These results are conducive to our in-depth understanding of the status of PM2.5 pollution in China and provide an important reference for the future direction of PM2.5 pollution control.

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Design development and study of an elastic sectional screw operating tool

Acta Polytechnica ◽

10.14311/ap.2021.61.0624 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 61 (5) ◽

pp. 624-632

Author(s):

Roman Hevko ◽

Sergii Zalutskyi ◽

Ihor Tkachenko ◽

Oleg Lyashuk ◽

Oleksandra Trokhaniak

Keyword(s):

Agricultural Production ◽

Bulk Material ◽

Response Surfaces ◽

Tool Development ◽

Design Development ◽

Power Capacity ◽

Technological Parameters ◽

Peripheral Part ◽

Damage Rate ◽

Minimal Damage

The results of an elastic sectional screw operating tool development and its production technique are presented in the article under consideration. The operating tool has been made to fix the elastic sections, providing the transportation of bulk materials of agricultural production, in order to ensure their minimal damage and the process minimal power capacity. The article presents constructed regression dependencies and response surfaces for the effects of the design, kinematic and technological parameters of a sectional screw operating tool on power consumption and the damage rate of grain material in the process of its transportation. As the result of the conducted experimental research, authors came to a conclusion that the arrangement of an elastic auger without a gap between its peripheral part and the inner surface of the guiding tube significantly reduces vibrations in the process of conveying bulk material.

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Paleoearthquakes and slip rates of the North Tabriz Fault, NW Iran: preliminary results

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-3461 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 46 (5) ◽

Author(s):

K. Hessami ◽

D. Pantosti ◽

H. Tabassi ◽

E. Shabanian ◽

M. R. Abbassi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Slip Rates ◽

Nw Iran ◽

Preliminary Results ◽

The North ◽

North Tabriz Fault

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A short introduction to historical earthquakes in Libya

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-3320 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 47 (2-3) ◽

Author(s):

A. S. Suleiman ◽

P. Albini ◽

P. Migliavacca

Keyword(s):

Historical Earthquakes ◽

Historical Seismicity ◽

Historical Sources ◽

Short Introduction ◽

North Central ◽

The North ◽

Lack Of Information ◽

Macroseismic Effects ◽

Instrumental Recording ◽

Earthquake Effects

As a result of the relative motion of the African and European plates, Libya, located at the north central margin of the African continent, has experienced a considerable intraplate tectonism, particularly in its northern coastal regions. If the seismic activity of the last fifty years, at most, is known from instrumental recording, macroseismic effects of those earthquakes which affected Libya in the past centuries are still imperfectly known. To try and partly overcome this lack of information, in this contribution we present a short introduction to historical earthquakes in Libya, focusing on the period up to 1935. According to the studies published in the last twenty years, the earliest records of earthquakes in Libya are documented in the Roman period (3rd and 4th century A.D.). There is a gap in information along the Middle and Modern Ages, while the 19th and early 20th century evidence is concentrated on effects in Tripoli, in the western part of nowadays Libya. The Hun Graben area (western part of the Gulf of Sirt) has been identified as the location of many earthquakes affecting Libya, and it is in this area that the 19 April 1935 earthquake (Mw = 7.1) struck, followed by many aftershocks. Further investigations are needed, and some hints are here given at historical sources potentially reporting on earthquake effects in Libya. Their investigation could result in the needed improvement to lay the foundations of a database and a catalogue of the historical seismicity of Libya.

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Institutional Factors Affecting the North Caucasus Region in Connection to its Russian Identification

Journal of History Culture and Art Research ◽

10.7596/taksad.v6i4.1185 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 416

Author(s):

Abdullakh Abdulgamidovich Mallakurbanov ◽

Elena Vladimirovna Baboshina ◽

Ilmira Abduragimovna Abdulaeva ◽

Irade Safaratdinovna Guseinova

Keyword(s):

Institutional Factors ◽

North Caucasus ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Caucasus Region ◽

The North

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Historical Earthquake Scenarios for the Middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault Deduced from Archeo-Damage Inventory and Building Deformation Modeling

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/0220200278 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 92 (1) ◽

pp. 583-598

Author(s):

Yacine Benjelloun ◽

Julia de Sigoyer ◽

Hélène Dessales ◽

Laurent Baillet ◽

Philippe Guéguen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Historical Earthquakes ◽

Historical Seismicity ◽

North Anatolian Fault ◽

First Century ◽

Building Vulnerability ◽

Earthquake Scenarios ◽

The North ◽

Seismicity Catalog ◽

Quality Ranking ◽

The City

Abstract The city of İznik (ancient Nicaea), located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (MNAF), presents outstanding archeological monuments preserved from the Roman and Ottoman periods (first to fifteenth centuries A.D.), bearing deformations that can be linked to past seismic shaking. To constrain the date and intensity of these historical earthquakes, a systematic survey of earthquake archeological effects (EAEs) is carried out on the city’s damaged buildings. Each of the 235 EAEs found is given a quality ranking, and the corresponding damage is classified according to the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98). We show that the walls oriented north–south were preferentially damaged, and that most deformations are perpendicular to the walls’ axes. The date of postseismic repairs is constrained with available archeological data and new C14 dating of mortar charcoals. Three damage episodes are evidenced: (1) between the sixth and late eighth centuries, (2) between the nineth and late eleventh centuries A.D., and (3) after the late fourteenth century A.D. The repartition of damage as a function of building vulnerability points toward a global intensity VIII on the EMS-98. The 3D modeling of a deformed Roman obelisk shows that only earthquakes rupturing the MNAF can account for this deformation. Their magnitude can be bracketed between Mw 6 and 7. Our archeoseismological study complements the historical seismicity catalog and confirms paleoseismological data, suggesting several destructive earthquakes along the MNAF, since the first century A.D. We suggest the fault might still have accumulated enough stress to generate an Mw 7+ rupture.

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Triggering of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5&6.3) by the Sahand Volcano and North Tabriz fault (NW-Iran); Implications on the seismic hazard of Tabriz city

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-495 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Seyyedmaalek Momeni

Keyword(s):

Creep Behaviour ◽

Fluid Pressure ◽

Fault System ◽

High Mountain ◽

Low Velocity ◽

Nw Iran ◽

The North ◽

North Tabriz Fault ◽

Earthquake Doublet ◽

Tabriz City

<div><span>Seismic history of the North Tabriz fault (NTF), the main active fault of Northwestern Iran near Tabriz city, and its relation to the Sahand active Volcano (SND), the second high mountain of the NW Iran, and to the 11 August 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5&6.3) (AVD), is investigated. I infer that before AVD seismicity of the central segment of NTF close to SND was very low compared to its neighbor segments. Magmatic activities and thermal springs near central NTF close to Bostan-Abad city and low-velocity anomalies reported beneath SND toward NTF in tomography studies suggest that the existing heat due to SND magma chamber has increased the pore-fluid pressure that overcomes the effective normal stress on the central NTF, resulting in its creep behaviour. Two peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moments of earthquakes observed on both lobes of the creeping segment, confirming the strong difference in the deformation rate between these segments. On 2012, AVD struck in the 50 km North of NTF, in the same longitude range to SND and with the same right-lateral strike-slip mechanism to NTF, as a result of partial transfer of the right-lateral deformation of NW Iran toward the North of NTF on the Ahar-Varzaghan fault system. A cumulative aseismic slip equal to an Mw6.8 event is estimated for the creeping segment of NTF, posing half of the 7mmy-1 geodetic deformation has happened in the creep mode. This event has transferred a positive Coulomb stress field of >1 bar on the AVD and triggered them. Also, the western and eastern NTF segments received >4 bar of positive Coulomb stresses from the creeping segment and are probable nucleation locations for future earthquakes on NTF. The observed creep may be the reason for the NTF segmentation during the 1721AD M7.6 and 1780 AD M7.4 historical earthquakes.</span></div>

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Contemporary deformation and earthquake hazard of the Capital Circle of China inferred from GPS Measurements

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4164 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shaogang Wei ◽

Xiwei Xu ◽

Tuo Shen ◽

Xiaoqiong Lei

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Earthquake Hazard ◽

Historical Earthquakes ◽

Tectonic Stress ◽

Middle Part ◽

Earthquake Hazards ◽

Seismic Belt ◽

Fault Plane Solutions ◽

The North ◽

Recent Earthquakes

<p>The Capital Circle (CC) is a region with high risk of great damaging earthquake hazards. In our present study, by using a subset of rigorously GPS data around the North China Plain (NCP), med-small recent earthquakes data and focal mechanism of high earthquakes data covering its surrounding regions, the following major conclusions have been reached: (a) Driven by the deformation force associated with both eastward and westward motion, with respect to the NCP, of the rigid South China and the rigid Amurian block, widespread sinistral shear appear over the NCP, which results in clusters of parallel NNE-trending faults with predominant right-lateral strike-slips via bookshelf faulting within the interior of the NCP. (b) Fault plane solutions of recent earthquakes show that tectonic stress field in the NCP demonstrate overwhelming NE-ENE direction of the maximum horizontal principal stress, and that almost all great historical earthquakes in the NCP occurred along the NWW-trending Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt and the NNE-trending Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian seismic belt. Additionally, We propose a simple conceptual model for inter-seismic deformation associated with the Capital Circle, which might suggest that two seismic gaps are located on the middle part of Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian fault seismic belt (Tianjin-Hejian segment) and the northeast part of Tanlu seismic belt (Anqiu segment), and constitute as, in our opinion, high risk areas prone to great earthquakes.</p>

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Understanding Societies in War

Rethinking the Civil War Era ◽

10.5810/kentucky/9780813175355.003.0002 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Paul D. Escott

Keyword(s):

Ethnic Groups ◽

Irregular Warfare ◽

The South ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The North ◽

Role Of Women ◽

Democratic Parties ◽

The Impact

This chapter emphasizes the analysis of the wartime forces in both sections that affected unity or division. It raises questions about the roots of the large amount of internal violence or irregular warfare in the South. For the North, it probes the nature of nationalism and asks about that section’s social, political, and religious divisions. Factors affecting both the Republican and the Democratic Parties of the North deserve new attention, as do the role of women in both sections, ethnic groups in the North especially, and the impact of emancipation and racism.

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