Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help to interpret the pandemic’s effects. After replicating and extending Emerson’s (2011) model of the labor market, we formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980–2019 and use it to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic’s labor market consequences. Gender-specific differences were particularly large at the pandemic’s outset; lower labor force participation persists.

Structural Change and Internal Labor Migration: Evidence from the Great Depression

We analyze sectoral labor reallocation and the reversal of urbanization in the U.S. during the Great Depression. The widespread movement to farms, which serves as a form of migratory insurance during the crisis, is largely towards farms with low levels of mechanization. In contrast, the mechanized agricultural sector sheds workers, many of whom reallocate into low-productivity or subsistence farming. The crisis perverts the normal process of structural change—in which workers displaced by farm equipment are released into more productive occupations—suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations are an important factor determining the labor market consequences of technological change.

The effect of health shocks on labour market outcomes in Russia

This study examines the effects of individual health shocks on labour market outcomes in the Russian Federation during the period 2000–2018. Employing data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey—Higher School of Economics, we demonstrate that adverse health shocks have negative consequences for employment, wages, and income. We find that the effects are strongest for males, the less educated, those on lower incomes, those in middle-ranking and professional occupations, and for those experiencing the most severe health shocks. However, consistent with our knowledge of the Russian labour market, we also observe that the wage and income elasticities are considerably higher than the employment elasticities and above those reported for other countries. Understanding how to attenuate the negative labour market consequences associated with health shocks is paramount and we, therefore, consider the potential role that labour, health and social policies can play in mitigating risk.

Competition, Choice, and Change

Initiatives to promote information about business human rights impacts on the part of civil society activists demonstrate a shifting consciousness and increasing concern that could introduce moral considerations into capital and consumer markets at a scale sufficient to create an incentive for corporate actors to consider the risks particular business practices may present for human rights. This chapter considers how enforcement of corporate commitments to respect human rights could occur through the provision of actionable information on corporate performance to conscious constituencies of investors and consumers. It considers competitive pressures that could be brought to bear on particular industries by virtue of greater transparency, including the connected nature of communication enjoyed by a significant segment of consumers. A connected and concerned community of consumers and investors could leverage concerns into change. It contemplates ways to generate adverse market consequences for business activities that have adverse human rights consequences. Specifically, it considers the changes generated by shareholder activism on human rights issues and the advances achieved by a “worker driven, consumer powered and market enforced” fair food program. It also considers examples of corporations that have reaped rewards for responsible conduct consistent with the responsibility to respect human rights. This chapter argues that expectations on business with respect to avoiding adverse human rights impacts and complicity in abuses are increasing and that choices will reflect concerns aligned with rewarding responsible business conduct.

The Role of Convex Equity Incentives in Managers’ Forecasting Decisions

Prior literature suggests that voluntary disclosures of forward-looking information tend to lead to capital market benefits, but these disclosures may also result in negative capital market consequences if subsequent performance falls below expectations. We, therefore, hypothesize that convex equity incentives, which reward managers for stock price gains while limiting their exposure to losses, should promote greater voluntary forward-looking disclosure. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a significantly positive association between equity incentive convexity and forecast issuance and frequency. We also find that the positive association is more pronounced for firms with higher sales volatility and managers with shorter tenure, in which cases managers are more concerned with missing their own forecasts. Our study suggests that the risks arising from providing voluntary disclosures are important considerations in managers’ disclosure decisions.

Linguistic tone of management discussion and analysis disclosures and the municipal debt market

PurposeAs the management discussion and analysis (MD&A) section contains discretionary narrative disclosures regarding a government's yearly financial changes and status, the authors investigate several municipal debt market consequences of linguistic tone within these disclosures.Design/methodology/approachThe authors textually analyze municipal MD&As with Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software and develop narrative tone measures based on existing financial-specific dictionaries. Using a final sample of 446 municipal bond issuances from 2012 to 2016, the authors modify the current bond regression models to examine the association between MD&A disclosure tone and future bond interest costs or rating disagreements.FindingsThis study’s empirical analysis suggests that more negative MD&A tone is associated with higher future debt costs and greater future disagreements among bond rating agencies.Practical implicationsOverall, the evidence implies that municipal bond stakeholders use the information in narrative disclosures when evaluating risk, but that the qualitative nature can introduce differences in interpretation between users. Furthermore, additional training in MD&A writing and further standard guidance in MD&A disclosures could improve the MD&A's informativeness for bond market decision-making and state-level monitoring.Originality/valueThis study is first to incorporate narrative tone measures into bond models in a governmental context.

Prevalence and potential consequences of child labour in India and the possible impact of COVID-19 – a contemporary overview

Child labour is a global phenomenon occurring predominantly in countries with lower socioeconomic status and resources. Societal and familial poverty, loss or incapacitation/illness of parents, lack of social security and protection, and ignorance about the value of, or limited access to, education are among the myriad reasons for the involvement of children in the workforce. Child labour is a barrier to the development of individual children and their society and economy. Global estimates indicate that 152 million children (64 million girls and 88 million boys) are working, accounting for almost one in 10 of all children worldwide. Currently the COVID-19 health pandemic and the resulting economic and labour market consequences are having a major impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. Unfortunately, impoverished families and their children are often the first to suffer, which may push many more vulnerable children into child labour situations. Child labour in India is more prevalent than in many other countries, with approximately 10 million children actively engaged in, or seeking, work. This paper focuses on the issue of child labour, its causes and its ill effects. Further, it also reviews the international legal framework relating to child labour and legislative issues in India. There is clearly an urgent need for this issue to be effectively addressed and resolved.