Effects of the Simulated Enhancement of Precipitation on the Phenology of Nitraria tangutorum under Extremely Dry and Wet Years

Plant phenology is the most sensitive biological indicator that responds to climate change. Many climate models predict that extreme precipitation events will occur frequently in the arid areas of northwest China in the future, with an increase in the quantity and unpredictability of rain. Future changes in precipitation will inevitably have a profound impact on plant phenology in arid areas. A recent study has shown that after the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the end time of the leaf unfolding period of Nitraria tangutorum advanced, and the end time of leaf senescence was delayed. Under extreme climatic conditions, such as extremely dry or wet years, it is unclear whether the influence of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum remains stable. To solve this problem, this study systematically analyzed the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of four phenological events of N. tangutorum, including leaf budding, leaf unfolding, leaf senescence and leaf fall under extremely dry and wet conditions. The aim of this study was to clarify the similarities and differences of the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of each phenological period of N. tangutorum in an extremely dry and an extremely wet year to reveal the regulatory effect of extremely dry and excessive amounts of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum. (1) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the spring phenology (leaf budding and leaf unfolding) of N. tangutorum advanced during an extremely dry and an extremely wet year, but the duration of phenology was shortened during an extremely wet year and prolonged during an extremely drought-stricken year. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (2) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the phenology (leaf senescence and leaf fall) of N. tangutorum during the autumn advanced in an extremely wet year but was delayed during an extremely dry year, and the duration of phenology was prolonged in both extremely dry and wet years. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (3) The regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the spring phenology of N. tangutorum lay in the different degree of influence on the start and end times of leaf budding and leaf unfolding. However, the regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the autumn phenology of N. tangutorum lay in different reasons. Water stress caused by excessive water forced N. tangutorum to start its leaf senescence early during an extremely wet year. In contrast, the alleviation of drought stress after watering during the senescence of N. tangutorum caused a delay in the autumn phenology during an extremely dry year.

Contributions of winter and spring warming to the temporal shifts of leaf unfolding

Changes in winter and spring temperatures have been widely used to explain the diverse responses of spring phenology to climate change. However, our understanding of their respective roles remain incomplete. Using >300,000 in situ observations of leaf unfolding date (LUD) in Europe, we show that the advancement of LUD since 1950 is due both to accelerated spring thermal accumulation and changes in winter chilling which explain 61% and 39% of the LUD shifts, respectively. Winter warming did not substantially retard the releasing of bud dormancy, but increased the thermal requirement to reach leaf unfolding. The increase of thermal requirement and decreased efficiency of spring warming on accelerating thermal accumulation partly explained the temporally (1950s-2010s) decreasing response of LUD to warming. Our study stresses the need to better assess the antagonistic and heterogeneous effects of winter and spring warming on leaf phenology, which is key to projection of future vegetation-climate feedbacks.

Inter-tree variability of autumn leaf phenology of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) on a site in Ljubljana, Slovenia

Temporal variability of leaf senescence (autumn phenology) was observed in 2020 in 11 European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees in Tivoli, Rožnik and Šišenski hrib Landscape Park in Ljubljana, Slovenia, and also observed for spring phenology in the same year. General leaf colouring, BBCH94, occurred between 19 and 24 October 2020, with lower inter-individual variability than that of leaf unfolding, BBCH11. The trees had active leaves (time between leaf unfolding and leaf colouring) between 177 and 199 days. In only three trees total leaf fall, BBCH97, occurred before 19 November 2020. Leaf colouring of the tree included in the long-term monitoring program of the Slovenian Environment Agency ARSO occurred on 24 October 2020. This is 7 days later than the 65-year average of the same tree/location and is ascribed to weather conditions. Investigation of tree tissues showed that the width of the last formed tree-ring in the wood varied between 0.39 and 9.61 mm and in the phloem between 0.09 and 0.26 mm, and that the tissues reflect the health condition of the trees.

Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.

Phenology of leaf development in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) on a site in Ljubljana, Slovenia in 2020

In spring of 2020 we observed leaf phenology in mature European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees in Tivoli, Rožnik and Šišenski hrib Landscape Park in Ljubljana, Slovenia (46.05°N, 14.49°E, 310 m a. s. l.). A group of 11 trees was selected for daily monitoring of leaf development. We recorded seven phases from dormant buds, through leaf unfolding till development of mature leaves. At the same time, photos were taken to illustrate the leaf development. First developing leaves were observed on 4 April in one tree. General leaf unfolding, as defined by International Phenological Gardens (IPG), was observed in different trees between 7 and 25 April 2020. The occurrence and duration of individual phases of leaf development showed great variation within and between trees. General leaf unfolding of the tree included in the long-term monitoring program of the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (ARSO) occurred on DOY 105 (14 April 2020), which is 4 days earlier than long-term average of the same tree/location, and this is ascribed to above average temperatures in the winter of 2019/2020.