Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

Abstract Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.

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Spatial variance of spring phenology in temperate deciduous forests is constrained by background climatic conditions

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-019-13365-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Marc Peaucelle ◽

Ivan A. Janssens ◽

Benjamin D. Stocker ◽

Adrià Descals Ferrando ◽

Yongshuo H. Fu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Light Availability ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Deciduous Tree ◽

Spring Temperature ◽

Spatial Variance ◽

Spring Phenology ◽

Leaf Unfolding ◽

Temperate Deciduous ◽

Heat Requirement

AbstractLeaf unfolding in temperate forests is driven by spring temperature, but little is known about the spatial variance of that temperature dependency. Here we use in situ leaf unfolding observations for eight deciduous tree species to show that the two factors that control chilling (number of cold days) and heat requirement (growing degree days at leaf unfolding, GDDreq) only explain 30% of the spatial variance of leaf unfolding. Radiation and aridity differences among sites together explain 10% of the spatial variance of leaf unfolding date, and 40% of the variation in GDDreq. Radiation intensity is positively correlated with GDDreq and aridity is negatively correlated with GDDreq spatial variance. These results suggest that leaf unfolding of temperate deciduous trees is adapted to local mean climate, including water and light availability, through altered sensitivity to spring temperature. Such adaptation of heat requirement to background climate would imply that models using constant temperature response are inherently inaccurate at local scale.

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Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change

International Journal of Biometeorology ◽

10.1007/s00484-004-0223-5 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 49 (3) ◽

pp. 184-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 122

Author(s):

C. Galán ◽

H. García-Mozo ◽

L. Vázquez ◽

L. Ruiz ◽

C. Díaz de la Guardia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Olea Europaea ◽

Pollen Season ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Olea Europaea L ◽

Heat Requirement ◽

Olea Europaéa

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Dry days, associated temperature anomalies and inter-annual variations in spring phenology

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12512 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Pierluigi Calanca

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Forage Production ◽

Spring Phenology ◽

Temperature Anomalies ◽

Annual Variations ◽

Grassland Ecosystems ◽

Grassland Plants ◽

Recent Climate

<p>The imprint of recent climate change on plant phenology has been the subject of several investigations during the last few decades. Results of such studies have repeatedly documented the advances of key phenological stages in spring. More recently, they have also shown that global warming has induced changes in temperature sensitivity and led to more uniform phenology across elevations. While awareness of trends in phenology undoubtedly contributes to inform ecosystem management, the provision of ecosystem services also necessitates knowledge and understanding of how spring phenology varies from year to year. For instance, in view of growing exposure of grassland ecosystems to summer drought, in Alpine countries forage production increasingly relies on exploiting at best spring growth, which in turn requires an accurate timing of field operations, depending on the progress of herbage development.</p><p>Employing long-term phenological observations on forest trees and grassland plants and weather records from Switzerland, in this contribution I examine year-to-year variations in spring phenology in light of anomalies in the seasonal mean temperature for the months of February to April, and reflect on how the latter can be related to number of dry days and associated temperature anomalies. Based on these findings and results from other studies, I discuss possible implications of future climate change for the variability of spring phenology.</p>

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Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Atmospheric Components from GCMs for Historical Reconstruction and/or for Future Climate Change Study

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012 ◽

10.1061/9780784412312.198 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. Kure ◽

S. Jang ◽

N. Ohara ◽

M. L. Kavvas ◽

G. Matanga ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Historical Reconstruction ◽

Climate Change Study

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What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

10.32942/osf.io/eg6hr ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽

Peter Manning

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Economy ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Substantial Portion ◽

Preventative Measures ◽

The Future ◽

Behavioral Norm ◽

Climate Crisis ◽

Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

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