Bayes' theorem: scientific assessment of experience

Homeopathy is based on experience and this is a scientific procedure if we follow Bayes' theorem. Unfortunately this is not the case at the moment. Symptoms are added to our materia medica based on absolute occurrence, while Bayes theorem tells us that this should be based on relative occurrence. Bayes theorem can be applied on prospective research, but also on retrospective research and consensus based on a large number of cases. Confirmation bias is an important source of false data in experience based systems like homeopathy. Homeopathic doctors should become more aware of this and longer follow-up of cases could remedy this. The existing system of adding symptoms to our materia medica is obsolete.

Relative occurrence rates of terrestrial planets orbiting FGK stars

This paper aims to derive a map of relative planet occurrence rates that can provide constraints on the overall distribution of terrestrial planets around FGK stars. Based on the planet candidates in the Kepler DR25 data release, I first generate a continuous density map of planet distribution using a Gaussian kernel model and correct the geometric factor that the discovery space of a transit event decreases along with the increase of planetary orbital distance. Then I fit two exponential decay functions of detection efficiency along with the increase of planetary orbital distance and the decrease of planetary radius. Finally, the density map of planet distribution is compensated for the fitted exponential decay functions of detection efficiency to obtain a relative occurrence rate distribution of terrestrial planets. The result shows two regions with planet abundance: one corresponds to planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ within 0.2 AU, the other corresponds to planets with radii between 1.5 and 3 R⊕ beyond 0.5 AU. It also confirms the features that may be caused by atmospheric evaporation: there is a vacancy of planets of sizes between 2.0 and 4.0 R⊕ inside of ∼ 0.5 AU, and a valley with relatively low occurrence rates between 0.2 and 0.5 AU for planets with radii between 1.5 and 3.0 R⊕.

Xylomyces (Aliquandostipitaceae, Jahnulales) freshwater hyphomycetes from the Brazilian Amazon

Xylomyces is characterized by the absence of conidiomata, conidiophores, conidiogenous cells, and conidia. The genus only produces chains of large, dark, thick-walled, dry, multiseptate chlamydospores with or without constricted septa. During an investigation of aquatic hyphomycetes on submerged wood and leaf litter in a stream in the Brazilian Amazon, we found four of the accepted eight species of Xylomyces. Xylomyces acerosisporus, X. aquaticus, and X. foliicola are new records to the Brazilian Amazon, while X. giganteus is a new record for the southern Amazonian region. Xylomyces giganteus showed the highest relative frequency and occurrence and X. foliicola displayed an intermediate relative frequency and occurrence. Xylomyces acerosisporus and X. aquaticus showed the lowest relative frequency, while X. acerosisporus indicated the lowest relative occurrence. Descriptions, notes, geographic distributions, and illustrations are presented for all species of Xylomyces found in this study. We also provide a key and a table for all species.

Evaluation of AIRS Cloud Phase Classification over the Arctic Ocean against Combined CloudSat–CALIPSO Observations

Cloud phase retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are evaluated against combined CloudSat–CALIPSO (CCL) observations using four years of data (2007–10) over the Arctic Ocean. AIRS cloud phase is evaluated over sea ice and open ocean separately using collocated CCL and AIRS fields of view (FOVs). In addition, AIRS and CCL cloud phase occurrences are evaluated seasonally, zonally, and with respect to total column water vapor (TCWV) and the temperature difference between 1000 and 300 hPa (ΔT1000−300). Last, collocated MODIS cloud information is implemented in a 1-month case study to assess the relationship between AIRS and CCL phase decisions, cloud cover, and cloud phase throughout the AIRS FOV. Depending on the surface type, AIRS classification skill for single-layer ice and liquid-phase clouds is over the ranges of 85%–95% and 22%–32%, respectively. Most unknown and liquid AIRS phase classifications correspond to mixed-phase clouds. AIRS ice-phase relative occurrence is biased low relative to CCL. However, the liquid-phase relative occurrence is similar between the two instruments. When compared with the CCL climatology, AIRS accurately represents the seasonal cycle of liquid and ice cloud phase across the Arctic as well as the relationship between cloud phase and TCWV and ΔT1000−300 regime in some cases. The more heterogeneous the MODIS cloud macrophysical properties within an AIRS FOV are, the more likely it is that the AIRS FOV is classified as unknown phase.

Persistent homology analysis of multiqubit entanglement

We introduce a homology-based technique for the classification of multiqubit state vectors with genuine entanglement. In our approach, we associate state vectors to data sets by introducing a metric-like measure in terms of bipartite entanglement, and investigate the persistence of homologies at different scales. This leads to a novel classification of multiqubit entanglement. The relative occurrence frequency of various classes of entangled states is also shown.

Myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease: A 30-Year Study of the Occurrence on Commercial Farms in Spain

In this retrospective study, we describe the relative occurrence of clinical myxomatosis, and rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD), on 1714 commercial farms visited in Spain, between 1988 and 2018. We determined the annual prevalence based on 817 visits to 394 farms affected by myxomatosis. Myxomatosis was more prevalent from August to March, being lowest in June (3%) and highest in September (8.9%). With regard to RHD, we assessed 253 visits to 156 affected farms. We analyzed mean annual and monthly incidence. Two important RHD epidemics occurred; the first in 1988–1989 due to RHDV GI.1 (also known as RHDV), and the second from 2011 to 2013 due to RHDV GI.2 (RHDV2 or RHDVb). These epidemics occurred at times when effective vaccination had not been carried out. Relative monthly incidence in 2011–2018 was higher from April to August (p < 0.001). The results we obtained from 1404 necropsies on 102 farms did not clearly relate serosanguinous nasal discharge in rabbits with disease caused by GI.2 infection. We also assessed vaccination schedules used on 200 doe farms visited from the end of 2014 to 2018; 95.5% vaccinated against myxomatosis and 97.5% against RHD. Both diseases remain prevalent; however, effective vaccination has produced a steady decline in myxomatosis and RHDV GI.1 and GI.2 on-farm detection. The maintenance of high hygienic standards will be needed to continue and improve this control. However, further studies are required to investigate the causes of sustained virus presence and vaccine breaks.

Generation of Bystander Robot Actions Based on Analysis of Relative Probability of Human Actions

This paper describes a method of rule extraction for generation of appropriate actions by a robot in a multiparty conversation based on the relative probability of human actions in a similar situation. The proposed method was applied to a dataset collected from multiparty interactions between two robots and one human subject who took on the role of supporting one robot. By computing the relative occurrence probabilities of human actions after the execution of the robots’ actions, twenty rules describing human behavior in such a role were identified. To evaluate the rules, the human role was filled by a new bystander robot and other subjects were asked to report their impressions of video clips in which the bystander robot acted or did not act in accordance with the rules. The reported impressions and a quantitative analysis of the rules suggest that the behavior of listening and the supporting role that the subjects play can be reproduced by a bystander robot acting in accordance with the rules identified by the proposed method.