scholarly journals Bayes' theorem: scientific assessment of experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (32) ◽  
pp. 104-114
Author(s):  
Lex Rutten
Keyword(s):  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Bayes Theorem ◽  
Materia Medica ◽  
Scientific Assessment ◽  
Relative Occurrence ◽  
Prospective Research ◽  
The Moment

Homeopathy is based on experience and this is a scientific procedure if we follow Bayes' theorem. Unfortunately this is not the case at the moment. Symptoms are added to our materia medica based on absolute occurrence, while Bayes theorem tells us that this should be based on relative occurrence. Bayes theorem can be applied on prospective research, but also on retrospective research and consensus based on a large number of cases. Confirmation bias is an important source of false data in experience based systems like homeopathy. Homeopathic doctors should become more aware of this and longer follow-up of cases could remedy this. The existing system of adding symptoms to our materia medica is obsolete.

Ferric sulfate as pulpotomy agent in primary teeth: twenty month clinical follow-up

2000 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamijeta Ibricevic ◽  
Qumasha Al-Jame
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Primary Teeth ◽  
Root Resorption ◽  
Clinical Success ◽  
Clinical Success Rate ◽  
Ferric Sulfate ◽  
Primary Molar ◽  
Molar Teeth ◽  
The Moment

Seventy primary molar teeth, carious exposed, symptom free, without any sign of root resorption in children aged from 3 to 6 years (main age 4.3yr) were treated with conventional pulpotomy procedures. Ferric sulfate 15.5% solution (applied for 15 second for 35 teeth) and formocresol solution (five minute procedure of Buckley's formula for next 35 teeth) have been used as pulpotomy agents. In both groups, pulp stumps were covered with zinc-oxide eugenol paste. Permanent restorations were stainless steel crowns. Clinical check up was every three-months and radiographic follow-up time was six and twenty months after treatment. Our results within this period revealed 100% clinical success rate in both groups. Radiographic success rate was in both groups 97.2%, while in 2.8% cases has shown internal root resorption. On the basis of these results, we can recommend ferric sulfate as a pulpotomy agent in primary teeth in substitution for formocresol at the moment.

scholarly journals Progressive Scoliosis and Syringomyelia - Questions of Surgical Approach

Folia Medica ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Mikhaylovskiy ◽  
Vyacheslav Stupak ◽  
Vadim Belozerov ◽  
Nikolay Fomichev ◽  
Anatoliy Lutsik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Intervention ◽  
Surgical Correction ◽  
Neurological Deficits ◽  
Spinal Deformities ◽  
Loss Of Correction ◽  
Scoliotic Deformity ◽  
Scoliosis Correction ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Abstract Background: The rate of scoliosis in syringomyelia patients ranges from 25 to 74.4%. In turn, syringomyelia occurs in 1.2% to 9.7% of scoliosis patients. Aim: To evaluate outcomes of surgical correction of the scoliotic deformity in syringomyelia patients. Materials and methods: Between 1996 and 2015, 3120 patients with scoliosis of various etiologies were treated at the Clinic for Child and Adolescent Vertebrology of the Novosibirsk Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics. We conducted a retrospective analysis of syringomyelia-associated scoliosis cases that required surgical correction. Results: Syringomyelia was found in 33 patients (1.05%) out of 3120 patients with spinal deformities of various etiologies; in 21 patients (0.9%) with idiopathic scoliosis of 2334 patients. In identifying the neurological deficit, the recommended first step is to perform neurosurgery. Nineteen patients were operated using the CDI, 4 patients underwent correction VEPTR, in 1 case instrumentation could not be established, 9 patients are undergoing treatment in the department of neurosurgery at the moment. Worsening of neurological deficits was not observed in any patient. Conclusion: A comparison of the results of syringomyelia-associated scoliosis correction with the data of other authors was done. The choice of surgery tactics is strictly individual and depends on the size of the cavity. The result of surgical intervention is generally positive and the loss of correction by the end of follow-up is negligible.

scholarly journals RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF EVENTS OF DEATH AT HOME AMONG PATIENTS UNDER FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-74
Author(s):  
Ya P Sandakov
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Emergency Calls ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Duration Of Disease ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Age Of Death ◽  
At Home

Aim. To study the peculiarities of asking for medical care by patients from among those dead at home, who had been under follow-up observation. Materials and methods. The data, received from ambulatory medical records of 100 dead at home patients with follow-up, were analyzed using the methods of descriptive and inductive statistics. Results. A mean age of death was 74.9 ± 13.4 years, men - 65.8 ± 14.1 years, women - 79.2 ± 10.9 years. Cardiovascular diseases were the cause of follow-up observation in 78 % of cases and the cause of death in 85 %; in 30 % of patients the disease was detected while carrying out prophylactic medical examination. A mean duration of disease by the moment of death was 13.0 ± 8.0 years, among pensioners 13.7 ± 8.5 years, in able-bodied persons 9.6 ± 4.3 years. A mean duration of follow-up observation was 9.2 ± 5.8 years. An average number of planned visits was 2.8 ± 0.89, but the number of real visits during the last year of follow-up observation was 2.4 ± 1.2. Disability was registered in 77.6 % of patients, concomitant diseases - in all patients. For the last year, exacerbations were recorded in 92 % of patients, emergency calls - in 80 %, hospitalization events - 52 %, including 55.8 % - urgent ones. Conclusions. The absence of significant difference regarding the duration of disease between pensioners and able-bodied patients (т = 0.16, р = 1.43) as well as the absence of correlation between the age and duration of disease (χ2 = 0.19, p = 0.2) indirectly prove the influence of duration of disease on its outcome, but not the age. Attendance, characterizing clinical loyalty to treatment, does not depend on age (χ2 = -0.19, р = 0.18), sex (т = 1.0, р = 0.32), way of detecting disease (f = 0.9, p = 0.4), class of main disease (f = 0.91, p = 0.44), duration of disease (χ2 = -0.13, р = 0.49), exacerbations (χ2 = -0.17, р = 0.24), concomitant diseases (χ2 = 0.006, р = 0.9). The number of emergency calls, hospitalizations, urgent hospitalizations does not depend on duration of follow-up observation, regularity and number of real visits to a doctor (p > 0.05) that indicates unsatisfactory quality of follow-up observation.

scholarly journals Procedure of complex braided wrapping of ascending aorta in her poststenotic dilation while doing correction of aortal stenosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 87 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 18-21
Author(s):  
V. V. Popov ◽  
A. A. Bolshak
Keyword(s):  
Ascending Aorta ◽  
Main Group ◽  
Surgical Correction ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Valve Prosthesis ◽  
Original Procedure ◽  
Aortal Valve ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Aorta Diameter

Objective. To study clinical possibilities of original procedure of the ascending aorta braid-like bandage for her poststenotic dilation while performance of the aortal stenosis surgical correction. Materials and methods. To the main Group 196 patients were included those, who were operated on for prevailing aortal stenosis, conjoined with poststenotic dilation of ascending aorta. In accordance to the echocardiographic investigation data the ascending aorta diameter preoperatively have constituted (47.7 ± 1.7) mm. In all the patients the aortal valve prosthesis was performed together with complex braided wrapping of ascending aorta. Into the control group 121 patients were included, in whom Bentall intervention was accomplished with vascular prosthesis of ascending aorta. Results. Hospital lethality in the main group have constituted 0.5%. Diameter of ascending aorta in the moment of hospital discharge have constituted (39.1 ± 1.5) mm, and in late follow-up period - (40.3 ± 1.1) mm. Conclusion. Basing on clinical experience gained, it is expedient to recommend the original procedure of braided wrapping of ascending aorta in presence of her poststenotic dilation while performing surgical correction of prevailing aortal stenosis.

scholarly journals Intrauterine Device Insertion during Cesarean Section in Women without Prenatal Contraception Counseling: Lessons from a Country with High Cesarean Rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (08) ◽  
pp. 485-492
Author(s):  
Alberto Moreno Zaconeta ◽  
Ana Carolina Oliveira ◽  
Flavielly Souza Estrela ◽  
Thalia Maia Vasconcelos ◽  
Paulo Sergio França ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Removal Rate ◽  
Intrauterine Device ◽  
Uterine Perforation ◽  
Cesarean Sections ◽  
Trial Of Labor ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Contraception Counseling

Objective The moment of admission for delivery may be inappropriate for offering an intrauterine device (IUD) to women without prenatal contraception counseling. However, in countries with high cesarean rates and deficient prenatal contraception counseling, this strategy may reduce unexpected pregnancies and repeated cesarean sections. Methods This was a prospective cohort study involving 100 women without prenatal contraception counseling. Postplacental IUD was offered after admission for delivery and placed during cesarean. The rates of IUD continuation, uterine perforation, and endometritis were assessed at 6 weeks and 6 months, and the proportion of women continuing with IUD at 6 months was assessed with respect to the number of previous cesareans. Results Ninety-seven women completed the follow-up. The rate of IUD continuation was 91% at 6 weeks and 83.5% at 6 months. The expulsion/removal rate in the first 6 weeks was not different from that between 6 weeks and 6 months (9 vs 9.1%, respectively). There were 2 cases of endometritis (2.1%), and no case of uterine perforation. Among 81 women continuing with intrauterine device after 6-months, 31% had undergone only the cesarean section in which the IUD was inserted, 44% had undergone 2 and 25% had undergone 3 or more cesarean sections. Conclusion Two thirds of the women who continued with IUD at 6 months had undergone 2 or more cesarean sections. Since offering trial of labor is unusual after 2 or more previous cesareans, we believe that offering IUD after admission for delivery may reduce the risk of repeated cesarean sections and its inherent risks.

Moment formulas for the Markov renewal branching process

1976 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel F. Neuts
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Numerical Computation ◽  
Busy Period ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Queueing Models ◽  
Absorption Time ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Moment

There are many queueing models in which there appears a semi-Markov matrix G(·), whose entries are absorption-time distributions in a Markov renewal branching process. The role of G(·) is similar to that of the busy period in the simple M/G/1 model. The computation of various quantities associated with G(·) is however much more complicated. The moment matrices, and particularly the mean matrix of G(·), are essential in the construction of general and mathematically well-justified algorithms for the steady-state distributions of such queues.This paper discusses the moment matrices of G(·) and algorithms for their numerical computation. Its contents are basic to the algorithmic solutions to several queueing models, which are to be presented in follow-up papers.

Pulmonary lymphangitis and cancer: Prospective series of 37 patients in palliative care

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 18600-18600 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Dettino ◽  
E. M. Negri ◽  
T. Pagano
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Palliative Care ◽  
Short Form ◽  
Primary Tumors ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
The Moment ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Minor Criteria

18600 Background: Lymphangitis of the lungs is an uncommon type of metastasis, mainly in breast, lung and gastric cancers, and has major impact in quality of life and an unfavorable prognosis. Survival is very poor: 50% in 3 and 15% in 6 months. Our objective was to evaluate prospectively quality of life in cancer patients with pulmonary lymphangitis, under palliative care. Methods: Patients with pulmonary lymphangitis, diagnosed either by lung biopsy (major criteria) or 3 minor criteria (cyto or histotologically proven cancer, clinical picture and image exam) were followed in 3 tertiary services, in a cohort series study. Primary end point was quality of life (QoL), measured with questionnaires in the beginning of the study and monthly afterwards (Saint George Respiratory Questionnaire -SGRQ- and Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey -SF36). Clinical and complementary aspects were also followed, in addition to treatment and outcome. Results: Thirty-seven patients were included from Aug/2004 to Jan/2006 - 23 female and 14 male; age from 41 to 84 (mean: 62) years. Primary tumors were: lung (20), breast (11), esophagus (2), pancreas, rectum and bone. Of those patients, 33 were able to respond QoL questionnaires in the beginning of follow-up and monthly thereafter. Median follow-up was of one month (range: 0–13); at the moment, 9 patients are still alive. Median survival was 2.5 months (range: 0,1–33), with 38% with a survival of at least 6 months. In general, QoL was poor, but improved after palliative care. Notice that values get higher as QoL improves in SF-36; however, they get lower as QoL improves in SGRQ - values were 61.5, 50.5, 61.7, and 47.5% for SGRQ and 38.1, 32.1, 32.8, 61.6 for SF36 in 0, 1, 3 and 6 months, respectively. Palliative care included: corticosteroids (65%), oxygen (51%), opioids (51%), diuretics (47%), inhalations with beta2-agonists and/or ipatropium (57%), chemo and/or hormonotherapy (51%), physical therapy (43%), antidepressants and benzodiazepines (37% each), thoracocentesis (35%), and blood transfusions. Conclusions: Even though QoL is poor and survival is short for patients with cancer lymphangitis in lungs, some improvement is possible with active palliative care. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Dynamic Analysis of a 1T3R Parallel Stable Platform

2013 ◽  
Vol 850-851 ◽  
pp. 616-619
Author(s):  
Li Feng Fang ◽  
An Xing Liu ◽  
Xiao Nan Zhang ◽  
Xing Long Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Ball Screw ◽  
Spherical Joint ◽  
Force Analysis ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Full Consideration

Based on POC set theory and SOC unit, a 1T3R parallel stable platform is proposed. The Single cylinder force analysis is studied. Then uses Newton-Euler method, gives full consideration to these various factors: without neglecting the ball screw rotation, friction between the spherical joint, the mass and the moment of inertia of electric cylinders, based above the dynamic theoretical Analysis of the stable platform is researched. The paper makes the guide sense for the follow-up research and the application of the 1T3R mechanism.

Turner syndrome in Albania and the efficacy of its treatment with growth hormone

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (11-12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Petrit Hoxha ◽  
Anila Babameto-Laku ◽  
Gentian Vyshka ◽  
Klodiana Gjoka ◽  
Dorina Minxuri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Hormone ◽  
Turner Syndrome ◽  
Body Height ◽  
Delayed Puberty ◽  
Genetic Characteristics ◽  
Female Patients ◽  
Albanian Population ◽  
The Moment

AbstractThe aim of this study was the evaluation of Turner syndrome inside the Albanian population, its clinical, cytological and genetic characteristics, the accompanying pathologies, and the efficacy of the treatment with the growth hormone. We performed a retrospective analysis of 59 patients suffering from this syndrome (aging from 5 to 23 years old). The diagnosis of female patients suffering from Turner syndrome is delayed, with a mean age at the moment of diagnosis of 13.74 years (5–23 years). The main reason for seeking medical advice was the growth retardation or a delayed puberty. Available data for 52 patients showed that the most frequent accompanying pathologies were the following: thyroid autoimmune disorders (59%), cardiovascular anomalies (43%), renal pathologies (41%), hearing impairment (4.3%) and hypertension (3.3%). Follow-up for the growth rate was possible for 52 patients out of the total of 59 patients. Twenty-five of the female patients suffering Turner syndrome and forming part of our study sample were treated with growth hormone for a period averaging 3 years and 4 months. A variety of reasons was identified as responsible for the missed treatment in 27 patients. We saw an enhanced growth (in terms of body height) within the treated subgroup, when compared with the untreated subgroup (27 patients), especially during the first 3 years of the follow-up. No side effects of this treatment were reported. Both groups of patients initiated as well a sexual hormone therapy (estrogens and progesterone) for inducing puberty at the age of 12 years. Further work is needed for an early diagnosis of this syndrome, the prompt treatment with growth hormone and the monitoring of accompanying disorders. This will ensure a better quality of life and an improvement of the longevity of patients suffering from the Turner syndrome.

scholarly journals Misunderstandings in ART Triadic Interactions: A Qualitative Comparison of First and Follow-Up Visits

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Grazia Rossi ◽  
Elena Vegni ◽  
Julia Menichetti
Keyword(s):  
Clinical History ◽  
History Taking ◽  
Qualitative Comparison ◽  
Triadic Interactions ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Moment

BackgroundMisunderstandings in medical interactions can compromise the quality of communication and affect self-management, especially in complex interactions like those in the assisted reproductive technology (ART) field. This study aimed to detect and describe misunderstandings in ART triadic visits. We compared first and follow-up visits for frequency, type, speakers, and topics leading to misunderstandings.MethodsWe purposively sampled 20 triadic interactions from a corpus of 85 visits. We used a previously developed coding scheme to detect different types of misunderstandings (i.e., with strong, acceptable, and weak evidence). We analyzed also the different topics leading to strong misunderstandings (direct expressions of lack of understanding, pragmatic alternative understandings, semantic alternative understandings) to provide insights about the contents of the consultation that may need particular attention and care.FindingsWe detected an overall number of 1078 misunderstandings in the 20 selected visits. First visits contained almost two-third of the misunderstandings (n = 680, 63%). First visits were particularly rich in misunderstandings with acceptable evidence (e.g., clarifications and checks for understanding), compared to follow-up visits. In first visits, doctors’ turns more frequently than couples’ turns contained misunderstandings, while in follow-up visits it was the other way around. Looking at the couple, the majority of the misunderstandings were expressed by the woman (n = 241, 22%) rather than by the man (n = 194, 18%). However, when weighting for their number of turns, 9% of the men’s turns included an expression of misunderstanding, compared to the 7% of the women’s turns. Finally, more than half of the misunderstandings with strong evidence were about history-taking and treatment-related topics, and while the history-taking ones were particularly frequent in first visits the treatment-related ones were more present in follow-up visits.DiscussionFindings indicate that first visits may deserve particular attention to avoid misunderstandings, as they are the moment where a shared understanding can be harder to reach. In particular, misunderstandings happening in first visits seem mostly related to physicians having to reconstruct the clinical history of patients, while those in the follow-up visits seem to reflect residual and unsolved doubts from the couple, especially concerning treatments.

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