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2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-25
Author(s):  
V. N. Minat

The transition to the sixth technological order, characterized by the systemic elements of the information revolution, requires a comprehensive analysis of the aggregate dynamic processes trade operations in the context of the respective commodity groups. Using the traditional methods of the statistical and economic method, in general terms, reduced to the formula: "domestic production + import - export", the relative quantitative indicators of the share of imports and exports of products of the leading high-tech industries of the United States were calculated for specific periods of time in the period 1951–2020, correlated with domestic production for the same period. Thus, an assessment of the impact of the "substitution effect" in the high-tech industry of the United States is given in relation to the volume of exports and imports in the context of certain groups of analyzed industries. The empirical results obtained contributed to the identification of trends in the regulation of American imports of high-tech industry products to protect the domestic market under the influence of the substitution effect in US foreign trade in the period under consideration. The main conclusion is that the priority in the focus of American foreign trade policy in terms of protecting the domestic market of high-tech industrial products, was and remains a flexible, expedient (in terms of substitution and integration vectors) combination of tariff and non-tariff restrictions on imports.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-432
Author(s):  
Anayochukwu Basil Chukwu ◽  
Tobechi Agbanike ◽  
Lasbrey Anochiwa

This study examines the possible challenges and prospects of the recent signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement on South-South trade. The recent ratification of the agreement by the African Union (AU) Heads of Government and the establishment of the mega-regional trade agreements (MRTAs) by the major global trading economies are the biggest since the establishment of the WTO. One of these regional and continental agreements' principal objectives is to further strengthen trade terms and balance of trade statistics between member nations. Whereas almost all the regional and continental blocs have to a large extent, achieved the purpose of their trade agreements, Africa stands out as the only region whose intra-trade value still constitutes less than 15% of global trade share. Many reasons have been adduced to be responsible for the weak trade performance, one of which is weak regional integration. This study, therefore, concludes that for Africa to achieve significant improvement in global trade, the region needs to encourage regional trade, which will act as a catalyst for transforming the domestic economies and lay a robust foundation for healthy regional competition and integration


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-547
Author(s):  
Ahmed Usman ◽  
◽  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Sofia Anwar ◽  
◽  
...  

The J-curve is a term used to describe short-run deterioration in the trade balance combined with long-run improvement subsequent to a currency devaluation or depreciation. While the majority of studies have tested the symmetric J-curve concept, the new direction is to test for an asymmetric J-curve. We tested both concepts for each of the 21 two-digit industries that trade between Pakistan and its major partner, China. While we found support for the symmetric J-curve in only six industries, we found support for the asymmetric J-curve in 13 industries. The two largest industries, coded 71 (machinery other than electric with 21.14% trade share) and 72 (electrical machinery, apparatus, and appliances with 16.87% trade share) were found to be in the list.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Jungho Baek

Since the introduction of the news-based policy uncertainty measure, a few studies have looked at its impact on trade flows by using panel models and aggregate trade data. In this paper we consider the short-run and long-run response of 61 2-digit U.S. exporting industries to Korea and 49 2-digit Korean exporting industries to the U.S. to policy uncertainty measures of the U.S. and Korea. We find that both measures have short-run effects on exports of almost one-third of industries in either direction. In the long run, however, while nine U.S. exporting industries (with a trade share of 9%) are negatively affected by the Korean uncertainty measure, only five industries (with 6% export share) are affected by the U.S. uncertainty measure. As for the Korean exporting industries, we find that three industries with a 31% export share are affected positively by the Korean uncertainty measure and six industries with a 7% export share are affected positively by the U.S. uncertainty measure.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Acevedo ◽  
Jose U. Mora ◽  
Andrew T. Young

PurposeMora and Acevedo (2019) report that the government spending multipliers in Latin American countries are notably higher than what is typically reported for developed economies. Latin American countries have been inclined toward using procyclical fiscal policies. Those policies have been perceived as being effective at mitigating the effects of the 2008–2009 Great Recession. This study aims to estimate the government spending multiplier using Latin American panel data from 19 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2018. The estimates are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. Based on the results, the latter is important: the less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP. Design/methodology/approachThe authors provide regression results that are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. FindingsThe less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP. Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is first study to estimate the fiscal multiplier conditional on economic freedom levels. The authors provide correctly calculated multipliers conditional on different levels of economic freedom. The authors point the way to future studies considering the effectiveness of fiscal policy conditional on institutional/policy quality.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Komal Kanwar Shekhawat ◽  
Arvind Kumar Yadav ◽  
Md Sahnewaz Sanu ◽  
Pushp Kumar

Abstract To devise an appropriate climate policy dealing with environmental degradation, reliable measurement of CO2 emissions is essential. In the recent past, most researchers have utilized production-based emissions in their studies, ignoring the important role of consumption-based emissions in environmental degradation. Therefore, the present research examines the drivers of consumption-based CO2 emissions in SAARC nations over the period 1990 to 2018. By employing traditional and second-generation panel cointegration methodologies, the study, more specifically, explores the link between consumption-based CO2 emissions and its four macroeconomic determinates, namely, GDP growth, energy consumption, FDI, and trade openness (measured by Composite Trade Share Index). The study also applies the FMLOS and DOLS techniques for calculating the long-run elasticities of regressors with respect to the explained variable. The results establish a cointegration relationship between the variables and validate the “EKC hypothesis” for the SAARC region. It is also found that in the long run, as expected, energy consumption enhances the consumption-based CO2 emissions while FDI and trade openness improve the environmental quality by plummeting emissions. Most importantly, the study rejects the “pollution-haven hypothesis” for the SAARC region based on the negative and statistically significant coefficient of FDI. Lastly, based on the results, some policies are recommended for the abatement of environmental degradation in SAARC countries. As the SAARC nations rely heavily on fossil-based energy, it is suggestive for these economies to enhance the level of energy efficiency and augment the share of renewable energy sources in the energy-mix. Furthermore, the policy-designers in this region should encourage trade openness and liberalize inward FDI for containing consumption-based emissions.


Author(s):  
V. Dergachova ◽  
M. Kravchenko ◽  
O. Vynogradova ◽  
V. Holiuk ◽  
K. Kuznietsova

The paper is devoted to the study of theoretical and practical aspects of determinant management of competitive devaluation, which are the essence of competitive devaluation, instruments of its implementation, as well as the positive and negative consequences of its impact on the economy of the country, which is implementing it and its trading partners. The authors have found that competitive devaluation is a deliberate devaluation of currency initiated (both officially and informally) by the central bank to reduce the value of exported goods, thereby facilitating domestic production, solving the unemployment problem, and reducing the balance of payments deficit. The article determines that the most significant impact of competitive devaluation takes place in the following sectors of the country’s economy: foreign trade, industrial, agricultural, financial and services. The study has found that the degree of effectiveness of competitive devaluation to stimulate economic growth of a country is determined by the following factors: structure of foreign trade, share of imported raw materials and components in the cost of goods, foreign trade barriers, growth rates of other countries’ economies, elasticity of demand for exported goods, use of fixed commodity contracts and risk hedging instruments, J-curve effect. The authors highlight the positive and negative consequences of competitive devaluation for the country implementing it and its trading partners. Expected positive results for the country which is devaluing its currency is an increase in exports and an increase in domestic demand, which should contribute to higher employment and economic growth. Among the negative effects of competitive devaluation are the following: a decrease of the purchasing power of the population, a rise of prices of imports and a decrease of their volumes, an increase of the inflation rate; more expensive repayment of foreign currency denominated debt; reduction of foreign investments; restriction of scientific and technological development and the outflow of professional labor.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 349-361
Author(s):  
Radha Raghuramapatruni ◽  
Asha Latha. D

Purpose of the study: India and Japan share strong cultural and economic ties. The economic relationship between the two Asian giants strengthened with the signing of the CECA agreement during the year 2011. The current research would focus on assessing the bilateral trade relations between both the countries and attempts to identify the commodity trade potential to enhance the future trade between them. Methodology: The study is based on secondary sources of data collected through the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development, WTO, IMF, RBI, and the Japanese Trade Databases. The annual data for the period 2005 to the year 2016 has been used to analyse the Intensity Indices and the Gravity Coefficient values between India and Japan. Similarly, the annual data from the year 2008 to 2015 is used to calculate the RCA and RID index values and finally, the average RCA and RID (2008-2016) are used for analysis to identify the commodity trade potential between both the countries. Main Findings: The study concludes that the trade share of Japan in India’s overall trade has been falling significantly over the years which could be seen through the declining Export Intensity and Import Intensity Indices of India with Japan. However, the overall analysis presents that 28 commodities were feasible for trade between India and Japan from the 56 commodities computed for the study which exhibits a strong potential for enhancing future bilateral trade relations between both the countries. Applications of this study: India had made a strategic move with its Look East Policy during the year 1991 to accelerate its trade relations with the East Asian countries and later with its success the same was transformed into Act East Policy during the year 2014. The current study would prove to be useful in shaping the policy changes in this direction. Novelty/Originality of this study: The study focuses on the bilateral trade relations between the two important Asian giants, India, and Japan during the post comprehensive economic cooperation agreement between the two. Further, the study identifies the areas of commodity trade potential which paves the direction for new trade between the countries to tap the untapped trade potential.  


2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-374
Author(s):  
Hansa Jain

Among the members of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), India dominates in terms of its geographical location, land area, population size and economic share. However, SAFTA is treated as a weak agreement as India is highly outward oriented for trade. This raises a question about India’s trade compatibility with South Asian countries. Also since SAFTA is now fully implemented, there is a need to determine its welfare effects for India as well as for the region. The study focuses on (a) trends and patterns of India’s intra-regional trade with South Asian countries, (b) trade compatibility and (c) welfare effects of SAFTA for the Indian economy. India’s trade intensity, trade share and trade compatibility with the other regional members is calculated. GTAP simulations are used to determine welfare effects. The study is based upon the secondary data. The study finds that with the implementation of SAFTA, India’s trade intensity and trade share with its regional members has slightly improved. Trade compatibility though low, is gradually improving. The study considers SAFTA as a positive sum game for India. India is likely to have favourable allocative efficiency effect, terms of trade effect and investment-savings effect if trade facilitation measures are adopted. JEL Codes: F150, F10, F140, C150


2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sin-Yu Ho ◽  
Bernard Njindan Iyke

Abstract Using a composite trade share measure of trade openness, we examined the effects of trade openness on carbon dioxide emission for a sample of 17 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period 1994 to 2014. We found that high trade openness is associated with low carbon emission in the long run. When compared with the simple measure of trade openness (i. e. total trade as a percentage of GDP), the composite measure indicates that the effect of openness on carbon emission in the long run is smaller in absolute terms. Moreover, while high openness is associated with high emission in the short run using the simple measure, this association is non-existent when using the composite measure. These findings are robust to two historically closed economies and the recent Global Financial Crisis. When testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis using the composite measure, we found evidence in support of this in the long run. This finding connotes that high openness is associated with low emission in the long run, but up to a certain level of openness. That is, there is a turning point for openness beyond which further openness may spur high emission. Overall, our findings suggest, to some extent, that the measure of trade openness matters.


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