A BAYESIAN GAME FOR A PROFIT AND LOSS SHARING CONTRACT

This paper presents a Bayesian Game model for a profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) contract. We develop our model into two parts, namely the model for non-social bank and the model for social bank. We propose the model to reduce adverse selection problem in offering a PLS contract. The Bayesian game starts with an incomplete information. Islamic banks do not know exactly what type of agent is applying for a PLS contract, efficient or non-efficient, the information of the bank is incomplete. In Bayesian game, we assume that the Islamic Bank assigns the agent type with a prior probability. Determination of the profit-sharing ratio of the contract will be discussed. We look for the Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the game in our model which is considered a solution. We show that the bank offers an interesting but risky contract to the agent if the bank assigns that the agent is efficient with a high probability, otherwise the bank offers a less risky contract to the agent if the bank assigns that the agent is a non-efficient agent with high probability. The results can be considered by Islamic banks to reduce the adverse selection problem in PLS contract.

The Optimal Mechanism Design of Retail Prices in the Electricity Market for Several Types of Consumers

In this paper, we discuss the demand side management (DSM) problem: how to incentivize a consumer to equalize the load during the day through price-dependent demand. Traditionally, the retail market offers several electricity payment schemes. A scheme is effective when the different tariffs satisfy different consumers. At the same time, the existing and generally accepted retail pricing schemes can lead to an "adverse selection" problem when all consumers choose the same price, thereby, reducing the possible general welfare. We propose an optimal design of pricing mechanisms, taking into account the interests of the electricity supplier and different types of consumers. The results of our work are that the optimal mechanism is implemented simultaneously for several periods, including the case when the ratio of types of consumers in periods changes. In addition, the mechanism proposed by us, in contrast to the studies of other researchers, provides an equilibrium close to the socially optimal maximum. We describe the implementation algorithm of the mechanism and provide examples of its action in the electric power system with different types and numbers of consumers.

The Pecking Order Theory of Capital Structure

The pecking order theory of corporate capital structure developed by states that issuing securities is subject to an adverse selection problem. Managers endowed with private information have incentives to issue overpriced risky securities. But they also understand that issuing such securities will result in a negative price reaction because rational investors, who are at an information disadvantage, will discount the prices of any risky securities the firm issues. Consequently, firms follow a pecking order: use internal resources when possible; if internal funds are inadequate, obtain external debt; external equity is the last resort. Large firms rely significantly on internal finance to meet their needs. External net debt issues finance the minor deficits that remain. Equity is not a significant source of financing for large firms. By contrast, small firms lack sufficient internal resources and obtain external finance. Although much of it is equity, there are substantial issues of debt by small firms. Firms are sorted into three portfolios based on whether they have a surplus or a deficit. About 15% of firm-year observations are in the surplus group. Firms primarily use surpluses to pay down debt. About 56% of firm-year observations are in the balance group. These firms generate internal cash flows that are just about enough to meet their investment and dividend needs. They issue debt, which is just enough to meet their debt repayments. They are relatively inactive in equity markets. About 29% of firm-year observations are in the deficit group. Deficits arise because of a combination of negative profitability and significant investments in both real and financial assets. Some financing patterns in the data are consistent with a pecking order: firms with moderate deficits favor debt issues; firms with very high deficits rely much more on equity than debt. Others are not: many equity-issuing firms do not seem to have entirely used up the debt capacity; some with a surplus issue equity. The theory suggests a sharp discontinuity in financing methods between surplus firms and deficit firms, and another at debt capacity. The literature provides little support for the predicted threshold effects. The theoretical work has shown that adverse selection does not necessarily lead to pecking order behavior. The pecking order is obtained only under special conditions. With both risky debt and equity being issued, there is often scope for many equilibria, and there is no clear basis for selecting among them. A pecking order may or may not emerge from the theory. Several articles show that the adverse selection problem can be solved by certain financing strategies or properly designed managerial contracts and can even disappear in dynamic models. Although adverse selection can generate a pecking order, it can also be caused by agency considerations, transaction costs, tax consideration, or behavioral decision-making considerations. Under standard tests in the literature, these alternative underlying motivations are commonly observationally equivalent.

Incentives in Brazilian Bolsa Família CCT Program: Adverse selection, moral hazard, improving mechanisms and simulations

The <em>Bolsa Família</em> CCT Program (BFP) has successfully reduced poverty in Brazil. However, the theoretical literature on associated economic incentives is scarce. A mechanism-design analysis identifies problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in the BFP. The paper proposes simple improving incentive-mechanisms. The Citizens’ Contribution Mechanism (CCM) requires beneficiaries to devote time to the PBF encouraging recipients with higher income to leave. The Graduation Mechanism (GM) offers financial incentives to ensure sustainable emancipation of qualified beneficiaries. The Human Capital Incentive Mechanism (HCM) increases transfers to efficient municipalities. We show that the CCM solves the adverse selection problem, the GM solves the moral hazard problem of beneficiaries and the HCM solves a moral hazard problem of local managers. A simulation based on 2010 census data shows that the mechanisms allow, within 6 years, significant increases in the reach and precision of the PBF and yields cost reductions of over R$4.6 billion.

The Tragedy of the Judiciary: An Inquiry into the Economic Nature of Law and Courts

This Article explores the economic nature of law and courts as an explanation for the world’s endemic court congestion problem. The economic theory of goods and services is used to demonstrate that law has a dual nature—coercion and compliance—and that law as coercion is actually a club good that requires a complementary good to be useful, courts. But because courts are private goods in nature, the bundled product will behave as a private good. However, the unrestricted implementation of access-to-justice policies with the objective of increasing the people’s access to courts will transform the bundled product into a common pool resource. The counterintuitive result of this transformation is that granting unrestricted access to justice might actually prevent people from accessing their rights—the tragedy of the judiciary. Two policy implications are explored: The importance of legal certainty for the tragedy mitigation, and the potentially adverse selection problem resulting from court congestion.

A Nontechnical Guide on Optimal Incentives for Islamic Insurance Operators

The takaful industry is searching for an optimal model for Islamic insurance operation, which has turned out to be a challenging task. This paper translates the abstract scientific knowledge accumulated in the optimal contracting literature into a simple, nontechnical, analytical framework to analyze alternative business models which could be used by regulators to align the best interest of shareholders and policyholders in the takaful industry. This paper shows that the wakalah–surplus-sharing hybrid serves as the optimal structure for takaful operation; in the presence of Akerlof’s (1982) gift-exchange, the wakalah fee reduces the adverse selection problem; and the wakalah fee could be used to protect infant takaful operators.

Do Earnings Management Leads to Sub-optimal Investments by Firms? Empirical Evidence From the Textile Sector of Pakistan

This study empirically investigates the impact of earnings management on investments of the firm. In this study, we also check the moderating role of audit quality between the above said relationship. We hypothesize that audit quality will not only weakens the relationship between earnings management and inefficient investments but also help the firm to invest reduction in over and under investments by the firm. Textile sector of Pakistan is selected for the study as it is one of the most important sectors of the country. The role of audit quality cannot be ignored to improve the information quality which ultimately helps the firm to make optimal decisions for the firm shareholders. The earning management activities are performed by firm managers due to moral hazard and adverse selection problem which leads to sub-optimal investments.

Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator's dilemma

We provide a novel rational explanation for why cults of personality exist: they solve the dictator's adverse selection problem in assigning subordinates to roles within the regime. Participation in a cult of personality is psychologically costly whenever it involves preference falsification, with the costs varying across individuals. Importantly, low psychological costs of preference falsification are correlated with traits the dictator values, such as unscrupulousness and ruthlessness, which we collectively term disposition-based competence. Under a wide variety of circumstances, this correlation makes participation in cults of personality informative from the dictator's point of view, allowing him to hire loyal and competent subordinates for the most important regime positions. In contrast to earlier formal work, our model implies that dictators can use cults of personality to avoid the loyalty-competence trade-off when promoting subordinates.