Stabilization of Microbial Communities by Responsive Phenotypic Switching

Clonal microbes can switch between different phenotypes and recent theoretical work has shown that stochastic switching between these subpopulations can stabilize microbial communities. This phenotypic switching need not be stochastic, however, but can also be in response to environmental factors, both biotic and abiotic. Here, motivated by the bacterial persistence phenotype, we explore the ecological effects of such responsive switching by analyzing phenotypic switching in response to competing species. We show how the stability of microbial communities with responsive switching differs generically from that of communities with stochastic switching only. To understand this effect, we go on to analyse simple two-species models. Combining exact results and numerical simulations, we extend the classical stability results for models of two competing species without phenotypic variation to the case where one of the two species switches, stochastically and responsively, between two phenotypes. In particular, we show that responsive switching can stabilize coexistence even when stochastic switching on its own does not affect the stability of the community.

Timescale Analyses of Fluctuations in Coexisting Populations of a Native and Invasive Tree Squirrel

1. Competition from invasive species is an increasing threat to biodiversity. In Southern California, the western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus, WGS) is facing increasing competition from the fox squirrel (Sciurus niger, FS), an invasive congener. 2. We used spectral methods to analyze 140 consecutive monthly censuses of WGS and FS within a 11.3 ha section of the California Botanic Garden. Variation in the numbers for both species and their synchrony was distributed across long timescales (> 15 months). 3. After filtering out annual changes, concurrent mean monthly temperatures from nearby Ontario Airport (ONT) yielded a spectrum with a large semiannual peak and significant spectral power at long timescales (> 30 months). Squirrel-temperature cospectra showed significant negative covariation at long timescales (> 35 months) for WGS and smaller significant negative peaks at 6 months for both species. 4. Simulations from a Lotka-Volterra model of two competing species indicates that the risk of extinction for the weaker competitor increases quickly as environmental noise shifts from short to long timescales. 5. We analyzed the timescales of fluctuations in detrended mean annual temperatures for the time period 1915-2014 from 1218 locations across the continental USA. In the last two decades, significant shifts from short timescales to long timescales have occurred, changing from less than 3 years to 4-6 years. 6. Our results indicate that (i) population fluctuations in co-occurring native and invasive tree squirrels are synchronous, occur over long timescales, and may be driven by fluctuations in environmental conditions; (ii) long timescale population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction in competing species, especially for the inferior competitor; and (iii) the timescales of interannual environmental fluctuations may be increasing from recent historical values. These results have broad implications for the impact of climate change on the maintenance of biodiversity.

Timescale Analyses of Fluctuations in Coexisting Populations of a Native and Invasive Tree Squirrel

1. Competition from invasive species is an increasing threat to biodiversity. In Southern California, the western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus, WGS) is facing increasing competition from the fox squirrel (Sciurus niger, FS), an invasive congener. 2. We used spectral methods to analyze 140 consecutive monthly censuses of WGS and FS within a 11.3 ha section of the California Botanic Garden. Variation in the numbers for both species and their synchrony was distributed across long timescales (> 15 months). 3. After filtering out annual changes, concurrent mean monthly temperatures from nearby Ontario Airport (ONT) yielded a spectrum with a large semiannual peak and significant spectral power at long timescales (> 30 months). Squirrel-temperature cospectra showed significant negative covariation at long timescales (> 35 months) for WGS and smaller significant negative peaks at 6 months for both species. 4. Simulations from a Lotka-Volterra model of two competing species indicates that the risk of extinction for the weaker competitor increases quickly as environmental noise shifts from short to long timescales. 5. We analyzed the timescales of fluctuations in detrended mean annual temperatures for the time period 1915-2014 from 1218 locations across the continental USA. In the last two decades, significant shifts from short timescales to long timescales have occurred, changing from less than 3 years to 4-6 years. 6. Our results indicate that (i) population fluctuations in co-occurring native and invasive tree squirrels are synchronous, occur over long timescales, and may be driven by fluctuations in environmental conditions; (ii) long timescale population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction in competing species, especially for the inferior competitor; and (iii) the timescales of interannual environmental fluctuations may be increasing from recent historical values. These results have broad implications for the impact of climate change on the maintenance of biodiversity.

Competition alters species’ plastic and genetic response to environmental change

Species react to environmental change via plastic and evolutionary responses. While both of them determine species’ survival, most studies quantify these responses individually. As species occur in communities, competing species may further influence their respective response to environmental change. Yet, how environmental change and competing species combined shape plastic and genetic responses to environmental change remains unclear. Quantifying how competition alters plastic and genetic responses of species to environmental change requires a trait-based, community and evolutionary ecological approach. We exposed unicellular aquatic organisms to long-term selection of increasing salinity—representing a common and relevant environmental change. We assessed plastic and genetic contributions to phenotypic change in biomass, cell shape, and dispersal ability along increasing levels of salinity in the presence and absence of competition. Trait changes in response to salinity were mainly due to mean trait evolution, and differed whether species evolved in the presence or absence of competition. Our results show that species’ evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change depended both on competition and the magnitude of environmental change, ultimately determining species persistence. Our results suggest that understanding plastic and genetic responses to environmental change within a community will improve predictions of species’ persistence to environmental change.

The dimensionality of plant–plant competition

To avoid extinction, every species must be able to exploit available resources at least as well as the other species in its community. All else being equal, theory predicts that the more distinct the niches of such co-occurring and competing species, the more species that can persist in the long run. However, both theoretical and experimental studies define a priori the nature and number of resources over which species compete. It therefore remains unclear whether or not species in empirically realistic contexts are actually exploiting all or some of the niches available to them. Here we provide a mathematical solution to this long-standing problem. Specifically, we show how to use the interactions between sets of co-occurring plant species to quantify their implied "niche dimensionality": the effective number of resources over which those species appear to be competing. We then apply this approach to quantify the niche dimensionality of 12 plant assemblages distributed across the globe. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we found that the niche dimensionality in these systems was much lower than the number of competing species. However, two high-resolution experiments also show that changes in the local environment induce a reshuffling of plant's competitive roles and hence act to increase the assemblages' effective niche dimensionality. Our results therefore indicate that homogeneous environments are unlikely to be able to maintain high diversity and also shows how environmental variation impacts species' niches and hence their opportunities for long-term survival.

Competing Bioaerosols May Influence the Seasonality of Influenza-Like Illnesses, including COVID-19. The Chicago Experience

Data from Chicago confirm the end of flu season coincides with the beginning of pollen season. More importantly, the end of flu season also coincides with onset of seasonal aerosolization of mold spores. Overall, the data suggest bioaerosols, especially mold spores, compete with viruses for a shared receptor, with the periodicity of influenza-like illnesses, including COVID-19, a consequence of seasonal factors that influence aerosolization of competing species.

On the Cost-Effective Design of Agglomeration Bonus Schemes for the Conservation of Multiple Competing Species

An important mechanism of species co-existence in spatially structured landscapes is the competition-colonisation trade-off which states that co-existence of competing species is possible if, all other things equal, the better competitor is the worse coloniser. The effectiveness of this trade-off for the facilitation of co-existence, however, is likely to depend on the spatial arrangement of the habitat, because too strong agglomeration of the habitat may overly benefit the strong competitor (being the poor disperser), implying extinction of the inferiour competitor, while too much dispersion of the habitat may drive the superiour competitor (being the inferiour coloniser) to extinction. In working landscapes, biodiversity conservation is often induced through conservation payments that offset the forgone profits incurred by the conservation measure. To control the spatial arrangement of conservation measures and habitats in a conservation payment scheme, the agglomeration bonus has been proposed to provide financial incentives for allocating conservation measures in the vicinity of other sites with conservation measures. This paper presents a generic spatially explicit ecological-economic simulation model to explore the ability of the agglomeration bonus to cost-effectively conserve multiple competing species that differ by their competition strengths, their colonisation rates and their dispersal ranges. The interacting effects of the agglomeration bonus and different species traits and their trade-offs on the species richness in the model landscape are analysed. Recommendations for the biodiversity-maximising design of agglomeration bonus schemes are derived.

Environment driven oscillation in an off-lattice May–Leonard model

Cyclic dominance of competing species is an intensively used working hypothesis to explain biodiversity in certain living systems, where the evolutionary selection principle would dictate a single victor otherwise. Technically the May–Leonard models offer a mathematical framework to describe the mentioned non-transitive interaction of competing species when individual movement is also considered in a spatial system. Emerging rotating spirals composed by the competing species are frequently observed character of the resulting patterns. But how do these spiraling patterns change when we vary the external environment which affects the general vitality of individuals? Motivated by this question we suggest an off-lattice version of the tradition May–Leonard model which allows us to change the actual state of the environment gradually. This can be done by introducing a local carrying capacity parameter which value can be varied gently in an off-lattice environment. Our results support a previous analysis obtained in a more intricate metapopulation model and we show that the well-known rotating spirals become evident in a benign environment when the general density of the population is high. The accompanying time-dependent oscillation of competing species can also be detected where the amplitude and the frequency show a scaling law of the parameter that characterizes the state of the environment. These observations highlight that the assumed non-transitive interaction alone is insufficient condition to maintain biodiversity safely, but the actual state of the environment, which characterizes the general living conditions, also plays a decisive role on the evolution of related systems.