scholarly journals The influence of new information that contradicts common knowledge about earthquake preparedness in Israel: A mixed methods experiment study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0250127
Author(s):  
Anat Gesser-Edelsburg ◽  
Mina Zemach ◽  
Ricky Cohen ◽  
Talya Miron-Shatz ◽  
Maya Negev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Residential Area ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Earthquake Preparedness ◽  
Expert Information ◽  
Risk Areas

Background A major earthquake in Israel is inevitable. Individual risk perceptions and preparedness can mitigate harm and save lives. The gap between the public’s concerns and those of experts is reflected in their differential perceptions regarding the components that influence the occurrence of an earthquake in Israel. Whereas the public believes that geographic location is the critical variable, the experts note additional variables that need to be considered. Common knowledge regarding the risks of earthquake occurrence in Israel is based on a distinction between high and low-risk areas, such that the closer a residential area is to the Great Rift Valley, the higher the risk that an earthquake will occur. Objectives To examine the variables affecting public preparedness in Israel (effective communication agent (communicator), high and low earthquake risk areas) and the degree to which experts’ knowledge contradicts respondents’ common knowledge. Methods The study used a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative research. The first stage included in-depth interviews with earthquake experts (n = 19). The second stage consisted of an experiment conducted among a representative sample of the public (n = 834). Results Most people believe that geographical location constitutes the main risk factor for earthquakes in Israel. Yet experts claim that additional variables affect earthquake intensity and damage: building strength, earthquake magnitude, distance from earthquake epicenter, soil type, and interaction between these four. The study found that knowledge of expert information affects public willingness to prepare. The direction of this influence depends on participants’ risk perceptions regarding residential area and on degree of consistency with common knowledge. In low-risk areas, added knowledge increased willingness to prepare whereas in high-risk areas this knowledge decreased willingness. Conclusion To turn expert information into common knowledge and to increase earthquake preparedness, the authorities must educate the public to generate a new public preparedness norm.

scholarly journals Application of Geographic Information Systems for Flood Risk Analysis: A Case Study from Accra Metropolitan Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-97
Author(s):  
Alex Barimah Owusu ◽  
Mathias Agbozo
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Drainage Density ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Soil Drainage ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The Public ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Risk Zones ◽  
High Flood

Abstract The main objective of the study was to identify high flood risk zones in AMA. The study also used questionnaires to assess local knowledge on what accounts for the high flood risk in their community. Spatial analysis techniques were used to model flood risk based on the following contributory factors; land cover, soil, drainage density, topography and proximity to rivers. The results show that high flood risk areas covered 46.3km2(20%), moderate risk area, 72.9km2(31.6%), low risk area 41.5km2(18%) and very low risk areas, about 6.7km2(2.9%). The high flood risk zones were low-lying areas below 50 meters above sea level and closely associated with poor drainage systems. People perceived not just low-lying areas as a paramount reason accounting for flooding but also very bad waste disposal habit of the public. These offsets the efforts of waste management companies to keep drains free of refuse.

El patriacado y la estructura social de la vida cotidiana

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Postigo Asenjo
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Civic Education ◽  
Common Knowledge ◽  
Judicial System ◽  
The Public ◽  
El Sistema ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
Ways Of Life

RESUMENEl sistema patriarcal no afecta exclusivamente al poder político y judicial, sino que afecta a la estructura interna de la sociedad, la identidad y las formas de vida de los individuos que en ella viven. Para comprender mejor como condiciona el sistema patriarcal las formas de vida y la visión que tienen los individuos de la realidad social, hemos de analizar el modo en que se extiende al orden institucional y lo determina mediante "tipificaciones" de hechos y de personas y mediante roles concretos, esteoreotipaciones sexiuales que obstaculizan el acceso a la esfera pública de la mujer, así como su reinserción en el mercado laboral, en suma, todo aquello que afecta al conocimiento común que comparten los miembros de una comunidad. El cambio hacia una mayor igualdad y una real democracia paritaria y compartida no es posible sin una paulatina educación y concienciación de la sociedad en su conjunto.PALABRAS CLAVEPATRIARCADO-TIPIFICACIÓN SOCIAL-IGUALDAD DE GÉNEROABSTRACTPatriarchalism is not only present in politics and the judicial system. It also affects the internal structure of society, above all the life and identitý of individuals. To understand better how it conditions their ways of life and the vision the individuals have of social reality, we should study how patriarchalism r3eaches the system of institutions and how this becomes determined by "typifications" of facts and people, and by certain roles or sexual stereotypes that hinder the access of women both to the public sphere and to tha labor market. It sum, everything that concerns the common knowledge that the members of a community share. The move towards more equality and towards a more egalitarian democracy heavily depends on the spread of civic education to the entire society.KEYWORDSPATRIARCHALISM-SOCIAL TYPIFICATION-GENDER EQUALITY

scholarly journals A Prediction Model for Metachronous Peritoneal Carcinomatosis in Patients with Stage T4 Colon Cancer after Curative Resection

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2808
Author(s):  
Tzong-Yun Tsai ◽  
Jeng-Fu You ◽  
Yu-Jen Hsu ◽  
Jing-Rong Jhuang ◽  
Yih-Jong Chern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
T4 Colon Cancer ◽  
Testing Set

(1) Background: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for assessing individual mPC risk in patients with pT4 colon cancer. Methods: A total of 2003 patients with pT4 colon cancer undergoing R0 resection were categorized into the training or testing set. Based on the training set, 2044 Cox prediction models were developed. Next, models with the maximal C-index and minimal prediction error were selected. The final model was then validated based on the testing set using a time-dependent area under the curve and Brier score, and a scoring system was developed. Patients were stratified into the high- or low-risk group by their risk score, with the cut-off points determined by a classification and regression tree (CART). (2) Results: The five candidate predictors were tumor location, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen value, histologic type, T stage and nodal stage. Based on the CART, patients were categorized into the low-risk or high-risk groups. The model has high predictive accuracy (prediction error ≤5%) and good discrimination ability (area under the curve >0.7). (3) Conclusions: The prediction model quantifies individual risk and is feasible for selecting patients with pT4 colon cancer who are at high risk of developing mPC.

scholarly journals How Perceptions of Trust, Risk, Tap Water Quality, and Salience Characterize Drinking Water Choices

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Madeline A. Grupper ◽  
Madeline E. Schreiber ◽  
Michael G. Sorice
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Tap Water ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Water Utility ◽  
The Public ◽  
Water Behavior

Provision of safe drinking water by water utilities is challenged by disturbances to water quality that have become increasingly frequent due to global changes and anthropogenic impacts. Many water utilities are turning to adaptable and flexible strategies to allow for resilient management of drinking water supplies. The success of resilience-based management depends on, and is enabled by, positive relationships with the public. To understand how relationships between managers and communities spill over to in-home drinking water behavior, we examined the role of trust, risk perceptions, salience of drinking water, and water quality evaluations in the choice of in-home drinking water sources for a population in Roanoke Virginia. Using survey data, our study characterized patterns of in-home drinking water behavior and explored related perceptions to determine if residents’ perceptions of their water and the municipal water utility could be intuited from this behavior. We characterized drinking water behavior using a hierarchical cluster analysis and highlighted the importance of studying a range of drinking water patterns. Through analyses of variance, we found that people who drink more tap water have higher trust in their water managers, evaluate water quality more favorably, have lower risk perceptions, and pay less attention to changes in their tap water. Utility managers may gauge information about aspects of their relationships with communities by examining drinking water behavior, which can be used to inform their future interactions with the public, with the goal of increasing resilience and adaptability to external water supply threats.

scholarly journals A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfredo Angulo ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Dany De Cecchis ◽  
Juan Primera ◽  
Henry Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probable Site ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than $$4\%$$ 4 % . The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Validation of the Zwolle score for selection of very low-risk STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Cordero ◽  
B Cid ◽  
P Monteiro ◽  
J.M Garcia-Acuna ◽  
M Rodriguez-Manero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Care Organization ◽  
Grace Score ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Background The Zwolle risk score was designed to stratify the actual in-hospital mortality risk of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (p-PCI) but, also, for decision-making related to patients location in an intensive care unit or not. Since the GRACE score continues being the gold-standard for individual risk assessment in STEMI in most institutions we assessed the specificity of both scores for in-hospital mortality. Methods We assessed the accuracy of Zwolle risk score for in-hospital mortality estimation as compared to the GRACE score in all patients admitted for STEMI in 3 tertitary hospitals. Patients with Zwolle risk score <3 would qualify as “low risk”, 3–5 as “intermediate risk” and ≥6 as “high risk”. Patients with GRACE score <140 were classified as low-risk. Specificity, sensitivity and classification were assessed by ROC curves and the area under the curve (AUC). Results We included 4,446 patients, mean age 64.7 (13.6) years, 24% women and 39% with diabetes. Mean GRACE score was 157.3 (4.9) and Zwolle was 2.8 (3.3). In-hospital mortality was 10.6% (471 patients). Patients who died had higher GRACE score (218.4±4.9 vs. 149.6±37.5; p<0.001) and Zwolle score (7.6±4.3 vs. 2.3±2.18; p<0.001); a statistically significant increase of in-hospital mortality risk, adjusted adjusted by age, gender and revascularization, was observed with both scores (figure). A total of 1,629 patients (40.0%) were classified as low risk by the GRACE score and 2,962 (66.6%) by the Zwolle score; in-hospital mortality was 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Moreover, the was a significant increase of in-hospital mortality rate according to Zwolle categories (2.7%; 13.0%; 41.6%)The AUC of both score was the same (p=0.49) but the specificity of GRACE score <140 was 43.1% as compared to 72.6% obtained by Zwolle score <3; patients accurately classified was also lower with the GRACE score threshold (48.8% vs. 73.7%). Conclusions Selection of low-risk STEMI patients treated with p-PCI based on the Zwolle risk score has higher specificity than the GRACE score and might be useful for the care organization in clinical practice. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Business founding in biotech industry: process and features

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 1183-1219
Author(s):  
Biagio Ciao
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Sharing ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Inductive Method ◽  
Resource Analysis ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Biotech Industry ◽  
Financial Impacts

Purpose This paper aims to construct a process model of business founding in the biotech industry. Design/methodology/approach An inductive method is used, and five case studies analyzed. Data are coded by applying Gioia’s method. Findings Aspirant entrepreneurs conduct resource analysis and industry analysis to formulate research and development targets. They perform transactions and networks because they require resources, and they then deploy and coordinate these resources. Such coordination generates activities with social and financial impacts. Research limitations/implications The results are specific to the biotech industry. A future study could examine business founding processes in other industries (e.g. entertainment, fashion, public utilities and sport). Additionally, the paper argues that during the founding process entrepreneurs show little concern for knowledge-sharing risk, as they want to collaborate to implement their ideas. Quantitative papers could test the consequences of such behavior. Practical implications The process model provides insights into aspirant founders on how to start a business in the biotech industry. Originality/value The paper shows: the differences between the founding process in the biotech industry versus other industries; and the shape of the Bower–Burgelman model in the context of biotech business founding. The paper delineates how private companies discover competencies in the public sector; a model of technology transfer from public to private sector; entrepreneurs’ absence of risk perceptions regarding knowledge-sharing during founding; and how conferences can serve as vehicles for benchmarking in networking.

scholarly journals Understanding coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk perceptions among the public to enhance risk communication efforts: a practical approach for outbreaks, Finland, February 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna-Leena Lohiniva ◽  
Jussi Sane ◽  
Katja Sibenberg ◽  
Taneli Puumalainen ◽  
Mika Salminen
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Thematic Analysis ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Practical Approach ◽  
The Public ◽  
Media Messages ◽  
Risk Magnitude

Understanding risk perceptions of the public is critical for risk communication. In February 2020, the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare started collecting weekly qualitative data on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk perception that informs risk communication efforts. The process is based on thematic analysis of emails and social media messages from the public and identifies factors linked to appraisal of risk magnitude, which are developed into risk communication recommendations together with health and communication experts.

scholarly journals Spatial-time Visualization of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Urban Area: Informing Health Policy and Practice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Firouraghi ◽  
Sayyed Mostafa Mostafavi ◽  
Amene Raouf-Rahmati ◽  
Alireza Mohammadi ◽  
Reza Saemi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Risk Areas

Abstract Background:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important public health concern worldwide. Iran is among the most CL-affected countries, being listed as one of the first six endemic countries in the world. In order to develop targeted interventions, we performed a spatial-time visualization of CL cases in an urban area to identify high-risk and low-risk areas during 2016-2019.Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted in the city of Mashhad. Patient data were gathered from Mashhad health centers. All cases (n=2425) were diagnosed in two stages; the initial diagnosis was based on clinical findings. Subsequently, clinical manifestation was confirmed by parasitological tests. The data were aggregated at the neighborhood and district levels and smoothed CL incidence rates per 100,000 individuals were calculated using the spatial empirical Bayesian approach. Furthermore, we used the Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic to identify clusters and outliers of CL distribution during 2016-2019 in Mashhad. Results:The overall incidence rates decreased from 34.6 per 100,000 in 2016 to 19.9 per 100,000 individuals in 2019. Both cluster analyses by crude incidence rate and smoothed incidence rate identified high-risk areas in southwestern Mashhad over the study period. Furthermore, the analyses revealed low-risk areas in northeastern Mashhad over the same 3-year period.Conclusions:The southwestern area of Mashhad had the highest CL incidence rates. This piece of information might be of value to design tailored interventions such as running effective resource allocation models, informed control plans and implementation of efficient surveillance systems. Furthermore, this study generates new hypotheses to test potential relationships between socio-economic and environmental risk factors and incidence of CL in areas with higher associated risks.

scholarly journals Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA): A Mixed Methods Evaluation of an Informed Decision-Making Framework for Fetal Heart Rate Monitoring

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Robyn Mary Maude
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Knowledge Translation ◽  
Focus Groups ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Fetal Heart ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Low Risk Women

<p>Intermittent Auscultation (IA) of the fetal heart (FH) is a screening tool for the assessment of fetal well-being during labour; the detection of changes in the FH rate and rhythm may signal fetal compromise. While the evidence reveals that IA is as effective as continuous cardiotocography (CTG) for FH monitoring for low-risk women, current practitioners favour the use of continuous CTG despite the risk of significantly increased maternal and fetal morbidity. Translating the knowledge of the effectiveness of IA into practice became the primary aim of this study. While auscultation and palpation are essential midwifery skills, the teaching of IA does not go beyond simply outlining the protocol for frequency, duration, and timing and less is understood about the underlying physiology associated with what is heard and the reassurance of fetal wellbeing that this provides. A knowledge translation intervention, in the form of an evidence-based informed decision-making framework for Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA) and a comprehensive educational intervention were developed to enhance midwives‘ knowledge and awareness of IA and to influence decision-making and practice for FH monitoring for low-risk women. A mixed methods non-experimental pre- and post - intervention study design was used to evaluate the knowledge intervention. Pre measures included a retrospective review of 511 medical records to assess existing FH monitoring practices, and focus groups with 14 midwives explored barriers and facilitators to the use of IA. The intervention was then delivered to a mix of 33 midwives and doctors three months later, followed by a second review of 422 medical records and focus groups with seven midwives to determine any changes in practice and to evaluate outcomes. The findings revealed a statistically significant increase in the use of ISIA with improved documentation, and a relative decrease of 14% in the use an admission CTG for low risk women. The ISIA framework has wide applicability in all maternity settings. This research has illuminated the effects of culture, organisation and the socio-political context on the ability for midwives to utilise their fundamental midwifery skills to promote, facilitate and protect normal physiological birth in the institutional maternity care setting. Engagement with a Knowledge Translation project and the introduction of the ISIA framework for FHR monitoring for low risk women has given midwives voice to generate change.</p>

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