Reducing bias in risk indices for COVID-19

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases and/or regional positivity rates. Although observing changes of these indices over time is critical to estimate the regional disease burden, the dynamical properties of these measures, as well as crossrelationships, are usually not systematically given or explained. Here we provide a spatiotemporal framework composed of six commonly used and newly constructed epidemiological metrics and conduct a case study evaluation. We introduce a refined risk estimate that is biased neither by variation in population size nor by the spatial heterogeneity of testing. In particular, the proposed methodology would be useful for unbiased identification of time periods with elevated COVID-19 risk without sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity of neither population nor testing coverage.We offer a case study in Poland that shows improvement over the bias of currently used methods. Our results also provide insights regarding regional prioritisation of testing and the consequences of potential synchronisation of epidemics between regions. The approach should apply to other infectious diseases and other geographical areas.

Cucumeropsis mannii seed oil (CMSO) ameliorates adipokines dysfunction and dyslipidemia in male Wistar rats exposed to Bisphenol-A

Bisphenol-A (BPA) and its analog are extensively utilized in the production of plastics which are rather ubiquitous in our environment. At high temperatures, BPA is leached into water and food packed in plastic containers. This research investigated the ameliorative effects of CMSO on adipokines dysfunction and dyslipidemia in male Wistar rats exposed to Bisphenol-A. thirty-six (36) albino rats weighing 100 - 200 g were randomly assigned into six (6) different experimental groups of controls (1, 2, and 3) and the tests (4, 5, and 6). Group 1 was given only 1 ml of olive oil, group 2 received 100 mg/Kg body weight (b.w) of BPA, group 3 was given 7.5 ml/Kg b.w of CMSO, groups 4, 5, and 6 received 100 mg/Kg b.w of BPA and 7.5, 5 and 2.5 mg/Kg b.w of CMSO respectively. CMSO and BPA were concurrently administered via oral intubation for periods of 42 days. Lipid profile and adipokines levels were determined in plasma and adipose tissue. BPA in male rats significantly (p<0.05) elevated the levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C, liptin, and coronary and atherogenic risk indices in plasma and adipose tissue with reductions in HDL-C and adiponectin levels. BPA plus CMSO in male rats significantly (p<0.05) decreased the levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C, liptin, and coronary and atherogenic risk indices with an elevation of HDL-C and adiponectin levels in both plasma and adipose tissue. These results suggest that CMSO could be useful in the management of cardiovascular-related diseases induced by BPA.

Safety and Risk of Operating Facilities: Rapid Assessment Methodology

Two methods for methodology uses “risk indices” (dam condition index I), as well as “fuzzy logic methods” to combine the original quantitative and qualitative (expert) information on the operated dam condition. The approach applied is in accordance with the recommendations of IEC 31010: 2019. Risk Management — Risk Assessment Techniques. Deterministic assessments of the condition in the form of “risk indices” were also used as input data in assessing the probability of the failure and in developing a probabilistic risk assessment methodology. The original database, as well as the damage assessment scale, modified in the course of the research, summarize the experience of surveys and examination of safety declarations of more than 180 hydraulic works in Russia. A description is given of the methods of initial assessment and digitization (quantification) of the condition index I, as well as combining the initial quantitative and qualitative (expert) information about various damages. The practical feasibility and the possibility of categorizing (with fuzzy boundaries) conditions and levels of damage to hydraulic structures are shown. With regard to various conditions and levels of damage, proposals are made for practical actions to ensure the safety of dams in the process of monitoring, inspection, development of a reconstruction project and its expertise. As a result of the research, the dependence of the probability of the failure pfailure on the average value of the Iср index has been established and the graph “pfailure – Iср” is presented, which is well described by the exponential and is convenient for practical application. The value of I ср is determined according to the data of visual and instrumental control of the dam condition of the as well as according to expert estimates. The methodology for creation the indicated graph is presented. The creation of this graph became possible on the basis of: statistical processing, proof of the “normality” of the distribution of the I indices and the estimation (according to the distribution functions constructed for each level of damage) the probability of the failure pfailure, as well as during the survey and examination of the dam project. Proposals are formulated for the practical application of the proposed methods for assessing the risk of operating dams, and the near-term prospect of research in the field of risk assessment and ensuring dam safety is formulated.

Characterizing the neighborhood risk environment in multisite clinic-based cohort studies: a practical geocoding and data linkages protocol for protected health information v1

Methods. This protocol demonstrates how to: (1) securely geocode patients’ residential addresses in a clinic setting and match geocoded addresses to census tracts using Geographic Information System software (Esri, Redlands, CA); (2) ascertain contextual variables of the risk environment from the American Community Survey and ArcGIS Business Analyst (Esri, Redlands, CA); (3) use geoidentifiers to link neighborhood risk data to census tracts containing geocoded addresses; and (4) assign randomly generated identifiers to census tracts and strip census tracts of their geoidentifiers to maintain patient confidentiality. Results. Completion of this protocol generates three neighborhood risk indices (i.e., a Neighborhood Disadvantage Index, a Murder Rate Index, and a Assault Rate Index) for patients’ coded census tract locations. Intended Usage. This protocol can be used by research personnel and clinic staff who do not have prior GIS experience to easily create objective indices of the neighborhood risk environment while upholding patient confidentiality. Future studies can adapt this protocol to fit their specific patient populations and analytic objectives.

Black and Latino Adolescents’ Self-Regulation: Placing College Preparedness in Context

Students from minoritized backgrounds, who disproportionately face higher poverty rates, are more likely to encounter risk factors, which tend to undermine individuals’ broader well-being by compromising self-regulatory processes. Yet, sociocultural theory highlights the presence of minoritized families’ cultural wealth. Consistent with a focus on assets, it is notable that college enrollment rates have increased among Black and Latino students in the U.S. Using a mixed methods approach, the current study integrated asset and risk frameworks, in order to advance knowledge on the context of minoritized teens’ college preparedness, defined here as making decisions and taking action steps toward college. Participants included low-income, predominantly Black and Latino families with adolescents ( n = 344). First, drawing from the voices of families, we examined responses to open-ended questions about aspirations, supports, and challenges. Salient themes included social-emotional and social-cultural factors. Indicators of cumulative contextual risk and cumulative individual risk were based on the qualitative data. Second, we tested whether the linkage from cumulative risk indices to teens’ college preparedness occurred via various dimensions of self-regulation (i.e., lower impulsivity, more cognitive control, and better organization skills), net of background characteristics. Adolescents’ organization skills were a significant mediator. Possible next steps for research are discussed.

Characterizing the neighborhood risk environment in multisite clinic-based cohort studies: a practical geocoding and data linkages protocol for protected health information v1

Methods. This protocol demonstrates how to: (1) securely geocode patients’ residential addresses in a clinic setting and match geocoded addresses to census tracts using Geographic Information System software (Esri, Redlands, CA); (2) ascertain contextual variables of the risk environment from the American Community Survey and ArcGIS Business Analyst (Esri, Redlands, CA); (3) use geoidentifiers to link neighborhood risk data to census tracts containing geocoded addresses; and (4) assign randomly generated identifiers to census tracts and strip census tracts of their geoidentifiers to maintain patient confidentiality. Results. Completion of this protocol generates three neighborhood risk indices (i.e., Neighborhood Disadvantage Index, Murder Rate Index, and Assault Rate Index) for patients’ coded census tract locations. Intended Usage. This protocol can be used by research personnel without prior GIS experience to easily create objective indices of the neighborhood risk environment while upholding patient confidentiality. Future studies can adapt this protocol to fit their specific patient populations and analytic objectives.

Modelling and Analysis of Solar and Wind System Adequacy Assessment and Cost Optimization

The output of wind and the solar system is not constant; it is difficult to access the adequacy of the system. The Generation model is developed for 240 MW of different generation units in the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). Then a multi-state wind and solar generation model is developed based on different solar radiation and wind speed to evaluate the probability of the states. In this work, the wind and solar systems are studies for separate locations with each consist of 8 MW, 18 MW, 28 MW, and 38 MW generation capacities. This wind and solar generation model are applied to Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to evaluate the reliability indices like Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). Based on the development of the MATLAB program for determining reliability indices, the capacity outage probability is developed for multiple solar and wind states. Based on standard load forecasting and the Time Series Load forecasting technique, the reliability of the system is analyzed. The results reveal the variation of risk indices in the system when additional generators are incorporated into the RBTS generation system. The cost optimization for Solar and Wind system were conducted using HOMER software to obtain the levelized cost of the proposed system.

Liquidity Risk and Capital Structure of Companies in Latin America

Objective. To explore the relationship between liquidity risk and the capital structure of Latin American companies. Methodology. With a sample of 135 companies (Brazil, Chile and Mexico), panel data were used to analyze various models that considered, among other variables, six liquidity risk indices, two of which included a new factor: the free-float. The study period covers from 2010 to 2019. Results. The level of indebtedness and capital risk in Latin America companies present a mixed relationship (direct and inverse). Conclusions. Latin American companies have their own characteristics for decision-makingabout capital structure.

Interrogating the validity of cumulative indices of environmental and genetic risk for negative developmental outcomes

Indices of cumulative risk (CR) have long been used in developmental research to encode the number of risk factors a child or adolescent experiences that may impede optimal developmental outcomes. Initial contributions concentrated on indices of cumulative environmental risk; more recently, indices of cumulative genetic risk have been employed. In this article, regression analytic methods are proposed for interrogating strongly the validity of risk indices by testing optimality of compositing weights, enabling more informative modeling of effects of CR indices. Reanalyses of data from two studies are reported. One study involved 10 environmental risk factors predicting Verbal IQ in 215 four-year-old children. The second study included an index of genetic CR in a G×E interaction investigation of 281 target participants assessed at age 15 years and then again at age 31 years for observed hostility during videotaped interactions with close family relations. Principles to guide evaluation of results of statistical modeling are presented, and implications of results for research and theory are discussed. The ultimate goals of this paper are to develop stronger tests of conjectures involving CR indices and to promote methods for improving replicability of results across studies.